Tugas 1 MPDW
Andi Fatihatul Fuadiyah
2023-09-04
#install.packages("forecast")
#install.packages("graphics")
#install.packages("TTR")
#install.packages("TSA")library("forecast")## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
## method from
## as.zoo.data.frame zoolibrary("graphics")
library("TTR")
library("TSA")## Registered S3 methods overwritten by 'TSA':
## method from
## fitted.Arima forecast
## plot.Arima forecast##
## Attaching package: 'TSA'## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
##
## acf, arima## The following object is masked from 'package:utils':
##
## tarlibrary("ggplot2")Impor Data
library(readxl)
data <- read_excel("/Users/a.akbaryahya/Documents/PraktikumMPDW/coffee1.xlsx")
data## # A tibble: 1,182 × 2
## Date Price
## <dttm> <dbl>
## 1 2000-01-07 00:00:00 114.
## 2 2000-01-14 00:00:00 113.
## 3 2000-01-21 00:00:00 111.
## 4 2000-01-28 00:00:00 115.
## 5 2000-02-04 00:00:00 113.
## 6 2000-02-11 00:00:00 109.
## 7 2000-02-18 00:00:00 104.
## 8 2000-02-25 00:00:00 98.8
## 9 2000-03-03 00:00:00 104.
## 10 2000-03-10 00:00:00 106.
## # ℹ 1,172 more rowsEksplorasi Data
Melihat data menggunakan fungsi View(), struktur data
menggunakan fungsi str(), dan dimensi data menggunakan
fungsi dim().
str(data)## tibble [1,182 × 2] (S3: tbl_df/tbl/data.frame)
## $ Date : POSIXct[1:1182], format: "2000-01-07" "2000-01-14" ...
## $ Price: num [1:1182] 114 113 111 115 113 ...dim(data)## [1] 1182 2Mengubah data agar terbaca sebagai data deret waktu
data.ts <- ts(data$`Price`)
data.ts## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 1182
## Frequency = 1
## [1] 114.15 112.55 111.20 114.70 112.90 108.80 104.30 98.80 104.35 106.10
## [11] 106.10 103.15 103.70 99.60 92.65 97.75 95.30 96.85 91.80 97.95
## [21] 99.20 95.55 91.85 87.25 87.05 84.85 80.80 89.15 96.65 87.40
## [31] 85.60 80.65 78.40 77.75 75.00 77.40 76.25 78.00 83.00 79.45
## [41] 81.05 84.15 75.60 73.60 74.15 68.55 68.30 67.00 63.65 62.90
## [51] 65.40 65.55 64.35 65.00 68.30 67.10 63.20 62.65 59.80 64.95
## [61] 63.30 61.70 59.00 60.10 60.30 58.10 57.60 57.15 60.95 63.65
## [71] 64.95 63.80 59.90 57.90 58.15 59.40 55.90 56.10 53.85 52.05
## [81] 53.75 51.30 50.40 48.40 54.35 50.95 50.50 48.50 49.05 48.30
## [91] 46.65 44.70 43.85 43.40 45.40 44.70 48.65 46.40 42.60 43.00
## [101] 43.80 46.65 46.20 48.55 49.55 47.40 45.90 45.45 44.55 44.10
## [111] 48.00 45.85 48.45 54.75 54.30 57.20 55.00 53.20 53.05 49.70
## [121] 49.00 47.50 48.40 51.40 51.90 49.15 46.45 47.10 46.50 48.15
## [131] 49.85 47.35 48.40 48.10 47.55 46.90 49.20 51.50 55.50 59.80
## [141] 56.05 55.65 56.00 57.35 62.60 68.55 64.00 67.85 66.40 66.80
## [151] 66.60 63.40 56.85 62.20 61.35 61.25 65.05 66.25 67.65 65.30
## [161] 65.80 62.65 61.60 56.85 58.65 57.70 61.30 58.25 60.80 60.45
## [171] 62.45 63.75 67.00 67.70 64.70 65.65 58.35 59.40 60.50 56.05
## [181] 58.40 60.50 60.20 62.30 60.85 65.05 63.70 60.10 60.30 61.45
## [191] 64.55 68.45 63.00 63.35 65.10 61.20 60.50 63.10 58.65 60.35
## [201] 59.50 56.65 57.75 61.90 63.00 64.30 63.25 64.95 68.80 71.15
## [211] 74.45 75.50 71.80 74.00 70.30 75.05 73.05 74.65 75.55 71.95
## [221] 73.40 72.55 70.05 67.95 67.15 68.10 70.40 72.35 85.55 83.00
## [231] 83.25 75.70 71.60 70.05 68.85 69.75 69.85 66.45 67.05 65.60
## [241] 66.55 70.00 68.30 70.40 75.35 83.00 80.15 77.20 74.65 75.10
## [251] 74.40 78.30 80.50 87.25 88.90 94.90 94.80 102.30 105.10 103.75
## [261] 96.25 100.10 103.25 105.30 110.50 113.45 118.05 115.25 121.85 134.45
## [271] 131.60 120.90 123.95 116.85 112.55 124.80 125.15 121.90 119.00 117.00
## [281] 121.90 125.55 113.00 107.60 105.45 102.10 104.15 103.25 99.45 103.15
## [291] 105.35 104.90 96.10 91.65 100.00 92.20 88.20 89.00 93.45 94.85
## [301] 99.65 103.45 98.35 103.90 106.95 96.80 97.40 90.75 92.75 94.35
## [311] 102.60 107.10 119.55 119.95 118.40 124.30 117.60 115.10 109.45 110.95
## [321] 112.10 105.70 103.65 105.30 107.00 108.35 105.25 112.00 107.20 106.50
## [331] 101.80 100.65 98.10 101.25 95.90 95.25 95.30 99.50 98.40 97.00
## [341] 95.60 99.40 105.45 104.30 103.25 106.20 103.40 102.45 98.65 104.45
## [351] 107.65 103.90 104.05 102.05 108.00 112.45 115.85 113.10 115.55 123.20
## [361] 121.85 121.55 125.40 126.20 120.45 120.30 119.70 116.30 118.35 114.75
## [371] 113.20 119.25 114.35 111.50 109.45 113.35 109.25 110.85 112.85 107.70
## [381] 103.75 103.00 102.80 109.50 112.90 117.40 114.85 114.70 113.60 111.00
## [391] 107.25 107.75 114.00 112.70 117.65 120.60 115.55 114.65 112.65 113.75
## [401] 118.05 129.90 128.65 137.00 139.30 125.00 121.45 118.90 121.75 124.90
## [411] 123.45 125.95 127.75 130.75 134.20 133.10 132.70 136.30 133.10 131.45
## [421] 139.10 147.20 149.85 160.15 164.60 148.75 150.05 130.90 130.40 131.90
## [431] 130.85 135.25 130.45 128.55 136.00 138.00 134.00 133.90 135.85 134.40
## [441] 143.95 150.15 149.55 140.05 135.65 137.30 140.15 135.80 132.85 140.25
## [451] 141.90 138.85 135.10 133.10 134.15 122.05 115.35 115.60 108.65 113.00
## [461] 112.10 110.95 108.95 114.10 101.60 109.85 110.95 108.40 110.90 116.90
## [471] 115.80 119.65 118.90 119.55 112.35 108.90 109.45 105.30 108.30 116.20
## [481] 115.85 118.40 119.30 111.85 119.00 119.85 125.70 127.55 135.00 137.40
## [491] 133.85 129.55 116.70 116.75 115.05 112.30 116.25 123.95 127.85 137.90
## [501] 128.95 123.70 121.10 122.85 125.30 134.80 127.70 129.70 135.65 142.88
## [511] 136.20 135.38 138.23 131.10 135.50 138.43 141.15 143.05 145.50 139.80
## [521] 135.93 145.35 140.75 139.60 131.95 128.80 132.75 134.75 129.05 128.00
## [531] 130.15 130.30 135.85 137.40 132.70 129.10 131.80 135.20 133.00 134.25
## [541] 132.40 134.25 133.75 144.95 160.25 167.00 164.05 163.23 166.55 165.28
## [551] 175.33 167.80 176.25 186.28 179.68 186.20 189.85 187.85 180.60 181.10
## [561] 182.15 186.40 198.85 203.45 205.15 200.45 209.85 202.15 204.50 208.98
## [571] 225.25 236.67 240.50 230.70 234.60 240.32 245.00 249.30 251.95 271.65
## [581] 267.70 272.90 273.70 276.80 268.60 259.90 274.95 288.10 294.25 299.35
## [591] 287.05 269.30 259.15 263.70 270.95 264.95 249.55 249.00 263.45 263.15
## [601] 252.55 241.50 239.55 238.00 240.35 266.15 278.90 289.20 271.25 263.00
## [611] 231.45 228.90 224.35 239.55 244.85 235.15 230.20 233.95 234.20 229.60
## [621] 227.15 227.05 210.95 217.88 226.85 221.75 225.25 225.40 217.35 215.95
## [631] 215.30 200.05 203.25 201.65 185.60 181.35 178.75 182.45 183.00 179.20
## [641] 177.70 175.00 173.50 176.55 177.70 167.80 157.50 155.60 150.05 155.15
## [651] 170.85 175.90 184.45 186.95 173.70 173.80 166.25 160.30 163.15 164.55
## [661] 162.70 180.80 173.30 173.50 167.77 162.35 161.65 157.75 154.70 149.90
## [671] 147.30 142.15 149.88 142.10 137.40 146.60 146.85 147.35 153.35 155.68
## [681] 148.30 147.95 141.05 136.95 143.10 142.90 143.35 136.50 135.30 137.15
## [691] 140.15 135.25 141.65 133.90 140.30 143.80 135.60 127.25 127.05 126.95
## [701] 122.25 118.70 120.00 120.95 119.15 122.60 122.25 118.25 122.90 120.50
## [711] 113.05 112.10 113.95 115.55 114.65 113.70 114.40 116.70 114.65 109.10
## [721] 105.55 104.05 105.75 107.28 110.25 105.80 114.50 115.30 116.35 116.35
## [731] 120.65 117.15 114.40 125.20 135.70 139.90 168.55 179.80 196.05 197.85
## [741] 171.15 180.60 185.00 201.20 201.20 204.75 200.60 184.85 182.50 181.90
## [751] 177.50 172.10 173.70 173.25 170.45 172.02 158.95 170.70 179.15 192.13
## [761] 180.85 188.75 181.60 195.75 192.85 179.65 178.00 186.05 206.50 220.40
## [771] 210.65 191.50 188.00 182.40 192.00 189.65 187.48 181.10 174.13 174.88
## [781] 169.07 161.05 180.05 171.00 162.45 161.90 166.85 163.20 148.65 136.75
## [791] 136.50 126.45 143.35 138.20 140.90 135.10 138.70 141.15 133.45 132.90
## [801] 137.20 126.95 126.15 135.10 132.05 127.15 131.70 125.60 122.95 127.00
## [811] 122.25 125.25 127.80 137.50 121.90 120.45 115.85 113.35 113.35 122.70
## [821] 124.30 131.60 125.85 118.45 120.95 117.75 112.15 121.90 121.00 124.00
## [831] 118.10 118.45 119.70 126.70 119.00 114.90 116.00 116.35 120.40 115.55
## [841] 115.75 113.00 118.80 124.40 133.85 127.55 127.25 120.45 122.95 122.75
## [851] 120.85 123.45 128.80 124.70 121.30 127.10 136.95 140.75 134.35 144.85
## [861] 142.75 145.70 141.90 146.20 142.50 136.85 138.80 143.90 150.10 149.95
## [871] 147.10 151.40 151.55 148.00 155.40 156.10 165.50 171.35 159.45 157.85
## [881] 152.30 141.20 135.55 138.20 136.15 137.05 142.85 149.30 153.20 152.40
## [891] 146.25 145.75 147.80 144.40 141.25 139.65 140.80 137.60 139.30 140.05
## [901] 138.90 129.85 131.05 133.10 132.60 132.10 131.20 125.55 126.55 123.55
## [911] 119.95 124.05 126.55 131.70 136.55 137.85 140.15 140.30 128.05 130.20
## [921] 127.75 129.40 140.00 134.45 128.05 130.00 126.45 125.25 126.60 123.95
## [931] 127.55 123.80 124.80 127.55 120.60 116.95 120.40 126.20 128.45 122.25
## [941] 121.25 125.15 120.40 121.85 117.95 119.45 120.35 118.85 116.95 117.20
## [951] 118.15 117.45 117.30 115.75 120.35 120.45 115.25 113.95 120.40 122.75
## [961] 117.25 115.20 113.85 111.50 111.25 107.05 110.65 110.45 107.75 107.00
## [971] 101.20 100.55 98.10 98.80 95.45 99.90 102.45 108.95 116.55 122.10
## [981] 119.65 120.05 113.85 112.60 107.15 103.25 98.80 96.95 99.70 100.95
## [991] 101.60 103.85 104.95 106.80 103.70 102.60 97.95 96.45 96.95 95.30
## [1001] 94.60 93.90 94.50 93.20 90.40 90.20 92.70 89.25 89.45 87.35
## [1011] 93.30 104.60 100.95 96.00 99.80 108.25 109.45 105.20 105.85 99.75
## [1021] 98.15 97.30 92.85 92.60 93.60 93.85 99.50 98.40 100.90 99.00
## [1031] 93.70 95.70 99.45 104.00 109.45 106.15 114.60 118.55 123.70 129.45
## [1041] 130.70 132.50 126.35 118.95 112.15 110.15 102.65 98.35 109.10 108.85
## [1051] 110.10 105.60 107.05 119.70 115.85 114.90 118.60 116.05 105.20 104.45
## [1061] 110.10 104.80 103.60 96.30 98.90 95.20 93.75 95.65 102.25 96.15
## [1071] 101.05 108.40 118.95 115.45 114.70 120.10 127.10 134.80 133.35 113.60
## [1081] 113.65 108.95 111.55 107.25 105.60 104.40 106.95 109.25 115.50 121.70
## [1091] 115.35 119.10 123.70 125.95 128.25 123.70 128.15 124.05 122.95 124.50
## [1101] 121.15 127.50 136.85 128.75 132.45 125.45 128.50 121.60 127.25 129.15
## [1111] 136.85 139.95 152.30 144.25 150.10 162.35 161.65 157.45 149.90 157.25
## [1121] 152.55 151.30 161.20 189.00 179.55 176.00 182.75 178.25 189.50 190.55
## [1131] 185.60 187.30 194.35 204.05 201.35 203.40 199.85 203.95 203.55 219.70
## [1141] 233.30 243.85 244.05 232.70 235.90 231.20 226.10 238.45 239.65 237.90
## [1151] 235.90 241.85 251.65 246.85 240.05 224.15 222.95 220.30 221.85 228.40
## [1161] 231.65 223.60 227.30 222.55 210.45 212.90 215.85 229.45 232.40 228.90
## [1171] 227.65 226.60 228.45 222.90 203.70 206.70 217.20 209.45 226.60 215.95
## [1181] 242.00 228.42Menampilkan ringkasan data
summary(data.ts)## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 42.6 98.4 119.9 126.6 143.3 299.4Membuat plot data deret waktu
ts.plot(data.ts, xlab="Date", ylab="Price",
main = "Time Series Plot")
points(data.ts)
Menyimpan plot
#menyimpan plot
#dev.copy(png, "eksplorasi.png")
#dev.off()Single Moving Average & Double Moving Average
Pembagian Data
Pembagian data latih dan data uji dilakukan dengan perbandingan 80% data latih dan 20% data uji.
#membagi data latih dan data uji
training_ma <- data[1:946,]
training_ma## # A tibble: 946 × 2
## Date Price
## <dttm> <dbl>
## 1 2000-01-07 00:00:00 114.
## 2 2000-01-14 00:00:00 113.
## 3 2000-01-21 00:00:00 111.
## 4 2000-01-28 00:00:00 115.
## 5 2000-02-04 00:00:00 113.
## 6 2000-02-11 00:00:00 109.
## 7 2000-02-18 00:00:00 104.
## 8 2000-02-25 00:00:00 98.8
## 9 2000-03-03 00:00:00 104.
## 10 2000-03-10 00:00:00 106.
## # ℹ 936 more rowstesting_ma <- data[947:1182,]
testing_ma## # A tibble: 236 × 2
## Date Price
## <dttm> <dbl>
## 1 2018-03-02 00:00:00 120.
## 2 2018-03-09 00:00:00 119.
## 3 2018-03-16 00:00:00 117.
## 4 2018-03-23 00:00:00 117.
## 5 2018-03-29 00:00:00 118.
## 6 2018-04-06 00:00:00 117.
## 7 2018-04-13 00:00:00 117.
## 8 2018-04-20 00:00:00 116.
## 9 2018-04-27 00:00:00 120.
## 10 2018-05-04 00:00:00 120.
## # ℹ 226 more rowstrain_ma.ts <- ts(training_ma$`Price`)
train_ma.ts## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 946
## Frequency = 1
## [1] 114.15 112.55 111.20 114.70 112.90 108.80 104.30 98.80 104.35 106.10
## [11] 106.10 103.15 103.70 99.60 92.65 97.75 95.30 96.85 91.80 97.95
## [21] 99.20 95.55 91.85 87.25 87.05 84.85 80.80 89.15 96.65 87.40
## [31] 85.60 80.65 78.40 77.75 75.00 77.40 76.25 78.00 83.00 79.45
## [41] 81.05 84.15 75.60 73.60 74.15 68.55 68.30 67.00 63.65 62.90
## [51] 65.40 65.55 64.35 65.00 68.30 67.10 63.20 62.65 59.80 64.95
## [61] 63.30 61.70 59.00 60.10 60.30 58.10 57.60 57.15 60.95 63.65
## [71] 64.95 63.80 59.90 57.90 58.15 59.40 55.90 56.10 53.85 52.05
## [81] 53.75 51.30 50.40 48.40 54.35 50.95 50.50 48.50 49.05 48.30
## [91] 46.65 44.70 43.85 43.40 45.40 44.70 48.65 46.40 42.60 43.00
## [101] 43.80 46.65 46.20 48.55 49.55 47.40 45.90 45.45 44.55 44.10
## [111] 48.00 45.85 48.45 54.75 54.30 57.20 55.00 53.20 53.05 49.70
## [121] 49.00 47.50 48.40 51.40 51.90 49.15 46.45 47.10 46.50 48.15
## [131] 49.85 47.35 48.40 48.10 47.55 46.90 49.20 51.50 55.50 59.80
## [141] 56.05 55.65 56.00 57.35 62.60 68.55 64.00 67.85 66.40 66.80
## [151] 66.60 63.40 56.85 62.20 61.35 61.25 65.05 66.25 67.65 65.30
## [161] 65.80 62.65 61.60 56.85 58.65 57.70 61.30 58.25 60.80 60.45
## [171] 62.45 63.75 67.00 67.70 64.70 65.65 58.35 59.40 60.50 56.05
## [181] 58.40 60.50 60.20 62.30 60.85 65.05 63.70 60.10 60.30 61.45
## [191] 64.55 68.45 63.00 63.35 65.10 61.20 60.50 63.10 58.65 60.35
## [201] 59.50 56.65 57.75 61.90 63.00 64.30 63.25 64.95 68.80 71.15
## [211] 74.45 75.50 71.80 74.00 70.30 75.05 73.05 74.65 75.55 71.95
## [221] 73.40 72.55 70.05 67.95 67.15 68.10 70.40 72.35 85.55 83.00
## [231] 83.25 75.70 71.60 70.05 68.85 69.75 69.85 66.45 67.05 65.60
## [241] 66.55 70.00 68.30 70.40 75.35 83.00 80.15 77.20 74.65 75.10
## [251] 74.40 78.30 80.50 87.25 88.90 94.90 94.80 102.30 105.10 103.75
## [261] 96.25 100.10 103.25 105.30 110.50 113.45 118.05 115.25 121.85 134.45
## [271] 131.60 120.90 123.95 116.85 112.55 124.80 125.15 121.90 119.00 117.00
## [281] 121.90 125.55 113.00 107.60 105.45 102.10 104.15 103.25 99.45 103.15
## [291] 105.35 104.90 96.10 91.65 100.00 92.20 88.20 89.00 93.45 94.85
## [301] 99.65 103.45 98.35 103.90 106.95 96.80 97.40 90.75 92.75 94.35
## [311] 102.60 107.10 119.55 119.95 118.40 124.30 117.60 115.10 109.45 110.95
## [321] 112.10 105.70 103.65 105.30 107.00 108.35 105.25 112.00 107.20 106.50
## [331] 101.80 100.65 98.10 101.25 95.90 95.25 95.30 99.50 98.40 97.00
## [341] 95.60 99.40 105.45 104.30 103.25 106.20 103.40 102.45 98.65 104.45
## [351] 107.65 103.90 104.05 102.05 108.00 112.45 115.85 113.10 115.55 123.20
## [361] 121.85 121.55 125.40 126.20 120.45 120.30 119.70 116.30 118.35 114.75
## [371] 113.20 119.25 114.35 111.50 109.45 113.35 109.25 110.85 112.85 107.70
## [381] 103.75 103.00 102.80 109.50 112.90 117.40 114.85 114.70 113.60 111.00
## [391] 107.25 107.75 114.00 112.70 117.65 120.60 115.55 114.65 112.65 113.75
## [401] 118.05 129.90 128.65 137.00 139.30 125.00 121.45 118.90 121.75 124.90
## [411] 123.45 125.95 127.75 130.75 134.20 133.10 132.70 136.30 133.10 131.45
## [421] 139.10 147.20 149.85 160.15 164.60 148.75 150.05 130.90 130.40 131.90
## [431] 130.85 135.25 130.45 128.55 136.00 138.00 134.00 133.90 135.85 134.40
## [441] 143.95 150.15 149.55 140.05 135.65 137.30 140.15 135.80 132.85 140.25
## [451] 141.90 138.85 135.10 133.10 134.15 122.05 115.35 115.60 108.65 113.00
## [461] 112.10 110.95 108.95 114.10 101.60 109.85 110.95 108.40 110.90 116.90
## [471] 115.80 119.65 118.90 119.55 112.35 108.90 109.45 105.30 108.30 116.20
## [481] 115.85 118.40 119.30 111.85 119.00 119.85 125.70 127.55 135.00 137.40
## [491] 133.85 129.55 116.70 116.75 115.05 112.30 116.25 123.95 127.85 137.90
## [501] 128.95 123.70 121.10 122.85 125.30 134.80 127.70 129.70 135.65 142.88
## [511] 136.20 135.38 138.23 131.10 135.50 138.43 141.15 143.05 145.50 139.80
## [521] 135.93 145.35 140.75 139.60 131.95 128.80 132.75 134.75 129.05 128.00
## [531] 130.15 130.30 135.85 137.40 132.70 129.10 131.80 135.20 133.00 134.25
## [541] 132.40 134.25 133.75 144.95 160.25 167.00 164.05 163.23 166.55 165.28
## [551] 175.33 167.80 176.25 186.28 179.68 186.20 189.85 187.85 180.60 181.10
## [561] 182.15 186.40 198.85 203.45 205.15 200.45 209.85 202.15 204.50 208.98
## [571] 225.25 236.67 240.50 230.70 234.60 240.32 245.00 249.30 251.95 271.65
## [581] 267.70 272.90 273.70 276.80 268.60 259.90 274.95 288.10 294.25 299.35
## [591] 287.05 269.30 259.15 263.70 270.95 264.95 249.55 249.00 263.45 263.15
## [601] 252.55 241.50 239.55 238.00 240.35 266.15 278.90 289.20 271.25 263.00
## [611] 231.45 228.90 224.35 239.55 244.85 235.15 230.20 233.95 234.20 229.60
## [621] 227.15 227.05 210.95 217.88 226.85 221.75 225.25 225.40 217.35 215.95
## [631] 215.30 200.05 203.25 201.65 185.60 181.35 178.75 182.45 183.00 179.20
## [641] 177.70 175.00 173.50 176.55 177.70 167.80 157.50 155.60 150.05 155.15
## [651] 170.85 175.90 184.45 186.95 173.70 173.80 166.25 160.30 163.15 164.55
## [661] 162.70 180.80 173.30 173.50 167.77 162.35 161.65 157.75 154.70 149.90
## [671] 147.30 142.15 149.88 142.10 137.40 146.60 146.85 147.35 153.35 155.68
## [681] 148.30 147.95 141.05 136.95 143.10 142.90 143.35 136.50 135.30 137.15
## [691] 140.15 135.25 141.65 133.90 140.30 143.80 135.60 127.25 127.05 126.95
## [701] 122.25 118.70 120.00 120.95 119.15 122.60 122.25 118.25 122.90 120.50
## [711] 113.05 112.10 113.95 115.55 114.65 113.70 114.40 116.70 114.65 109.10
## [721] 105.55 104.05 105.75 107.28 110.25 105.80 114.50 115.30 116.35 116.35
## [731] 120.65 117.15 114.40 125.20 135.70 139.90 168.55 179.80 196.05 197.85
## [741] 171.15 180.60 185.00 201.20 201.20 204.75 200.60 184.85 182.50 181.90
## [751] 177.50 172.10 173.70 173.25 170.45 172.02 158.95 170.70 179.15 192.13
## [761] 180.85 188.75 181.60 195.75 192.85 179.65 178.00 186.05 206.50 220.40
## [771] 210.65 191.50 188.00 182.40 192.00 189.65 187.48 181.10 174.13 174.88
## [781] 169.07 161.05 180.05 171.00 162.45 161.90 166.85 163.20 148.65 136.75
## [791] 136.50 126.45 143.35 138.20 140.90 135.10 138.70 141.15 133.45 132.90
## [801] 137.20 126.95 126.15 135.10 132.05 127.15 131.70 125.60 122.95 127.00
## [811] 122.25 125.25 127.80 137.50 121.90 120.45 115.85 113.35 113.35 122.70
## [821] 124.30 131.60 125.85 118.45 120.95 117.75 112.15 121.90 121.00 124.00
## [831] 118.10 118.45 119.70 126.70 119.00 114.90 116.00 116.35 120.40 115.55
## [841] 115.75 113.00 118.80 124.40 133.85 127.55 127.25 120.45 122.95 122.75
## [851] 120.85 123.45 128.80 124.70 121.30 127.10 136.95 140.75 134.35 144.85
## [861] 142.75 145.70 141.90 146.20 142.50 136.85 138.80 143.90 150.10 149.95
## [871] 147.10 151.40 151.55 148.00 155.40 156.10 165.50 171.35 159.45 157.85
## [881] 152.30 141.20 135.55 138.20 136.15 137.05 142.85 149.30 153.20 152.40
## [891] 146.25 145.75 147.80 144.40 141.25 139.65 140.80 137.60 139.30 140.05
## [901] 138.90 129.85 131.05 133.10 132.60 132.10 131.20 125.55 126.55 123.55
## [911] 119.95 124.05 126.55 131.70 136.55 137.85 140.15 140.30 128.05 130.20
## [921] 127.75 129.40 140.00 134.45 128.05 130.00 126.45 125.25 126.60 123.95
## [931] 127.55 123.80 124.80 127.55 120.60 116.95 120.40 126.20 128.45 122.25
## [941] 121.25 125.15 120.40 121.85 117.95 119.45test_ma.ts <- ts(testing_ma$`Price`)
test_ma.ts## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 236
## Frequency = 1
## [1] 120.35 118.85 116.95 117.20 118.15 117.45 117.30 115.75 120.35 120.45
## [11] 115.25 113.95 120.40 122.75 117.25 115.20 113.85 111.50 111.25 107.05
## [21] 110.65 110.45 107.75 107.00 101.20 100.55 98.10 98.80 95.45 99.90
## [31] 102.45 108.95 116.55 122.10 119.65 120.05 113.85 112.60 107.15 103.25
## [41] 98.80 96.95 99.70 100.95 101.60 103.85 104.95 106.80 103.70 102.60
## [51] 97.95 96.45 96.95 95.30 94.60 93.90 94.50 93.20 90.40 90.20
## [61] 92.70 89.25 89.45 87.35 93.30 104.60 100.95 96.00 99.80 108.25
## [71] 109.45 105.20 105.85 99.75 98.15 97.30 92.85 92.60 93.60 93.85
## [81] 99.50 98.40 100.90 99.00 93.70 95.70 99.45 104.00 109.45 106.15
## [91] 114.60 118.55 123.70 129.45 130.70 132.50 126.35 118.95 112.15 110.15
## [101] 102.65 98.35 109.10 108.85 110.10 105.60 107.05 119.70 115.85 114.90
## [111] 118.60 116.05 105.20 104.45 110.10 104.80 103.60 96.30 98.90 95.20
## [121] 93.75 95.65 102.25 96.15 101.05 108.40 118.95 115.45 114.70 120.10
## [131] 127.10 134.80 133.35 113.60 113.65 108.95 111.55 107.25 105.60 104.40
## [141] 106.95 109.25 115.50 121.70 115.35 119.10 123.70 125.95 128.25 123.70
## [151] 128.15 124.05 122.95 124.50 121.15 127.50 136.85 128.75 132.45 125.45
## [161] 128.50 121.60 127.25 129.15 136.85 139.95 152.30 144.25 150.10 162.35
## [171] 161.65 157.45 149.90 157.25 152.55 151.30 161.20 189.00 179.55 176.00
## [181] 182.75 178.25 189.50 190.55 185.60 187.30 194.35 204.05 201.35 203.40
## [191] 199.85 203.95 203.55 219.70 233.30 243.85 244.05 232.70 235.90 231.20
## [201] 226.10 238.45 239.65 237.90 235.90 241.85 251.65 246.85 240.05 224.15
## [211] 222.95 220.30 221.85 228.40 231.65 223.60 227.30 222.55 210.45 212.90
## [221] 215.85 229.45 232.40 228.90 227.65 226.60 228.45 222.90 203.70 206.70
## [231] 217.20 209.45 226.60 215.95 242.00 228.42Eksplorasi Data
Eksplorasi data dilakukan pada keseluruhan data, data latih serta data uji menggunakan plot data deret waktu.
plot(data.ts, col="red",main="Plot semua data")
points(data.ts)
#eksplorasi data latih
plot(train_ma.ts, col="blue",main="Plot data latih")
points(train_ma.ts)
#eksplorasi data uji
plot(test_ma.ts, col="blue",main="Plot data uji")
points(test_ma.ts)
#Eksplorasi dengan GGPLOT
library(ggplot2)
ggplot() +
geom_line(data = training_ma, aes(x = Date, y = Price, col = "Data Latih")) +
geom_line(data = testing_ma, aes(x = Date, y = Price, col = "Data Uji")) +
labs(x = "Date", y = "Price", color = "Legend") +
scale_colour_manual(name="Keterangan:", breaks = c("Data Latih", "Data Uji"),
values = c("blue", "red")) +
theme_bw() + theme(legend.position = "bottom",
plot.caption = element_text(hjust=0.5, size=12))
Single Moving Average (SMA)
data.sma<-SMA(train_ma.ts, n=4)
data.sma## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 946
## Frequency = 1
## [1] NA NA NA 113.1500 112.8375 111.9000 110.1750 106.2000
## [9] 104.0625 103.3875 103.8375 104.9250 104.7625 103.1375 99.7750 98.4250
## [17] 96.3250 95.6375 95.4250 95.4750 96.4500 96.1250 96.1375 93.4625
## [25] 90.4250 87.7500 84.9875 85.4625 87.8625 88.5000 89.7000 87.5750
## [33] 83.0125 80.6000 77.9500 77.1375 76.6000 76.6625 78.6625 79.1750
## [41] 80.3750 81.9125 80.0625 78.6000 76.8750 72.9750 71.1500 69.5000
## [49] 66.8750 65.4625 64.7375 64.3750 64.5500 65.0750 65.8000 66.1875
## [57] 65.9000 65.3125 63.1875 62.6500 62.6750 62.4375 62.2375 61.0250
## [65] 60.2750 59.3750 59.0250 58.2875 58.4500 59.8375 61.6750 63.3375
## [73] 63.0750 61.6375 59.9375 58.8375 57.8375 57.3875 56.3125 54.4750
## [81] 53.9375 52.7375 51.8750 50.9625 51.1125 51.0250 51.0500 51.0750
## [89] 49.7500 49.0875 48.1250 47.1750 45.8750 44.6500 44.3375 44.3375
## [97] 45.5375 46.2875 45.5875 45.1625 43.9500 44.0125 44.9125 46.3000
## [105] 47.7375 47.9250 47.8500 47.0750 45.8250 45.0000 45.5250 45.6250
## [113] 46.6000 49.2625 50.8375 53.6750 55.3125 54.9250 54.6125 52.7375
## [121] 51.2375 49.8125 48.6500 49.0750 49.8000 50.2125 49.7250 48.6500
## [129] 47.3000 47.0500 47.9000 47.9625 48.4375 48.4250 47.8500 47.7375
## [137] 47.9375 48.7875 50.7750 54.0000 55.7125 56.7500 56.8750 56.2625
## [145] 57.9000 61.1250 63.1250 65.7500 66.7000 66.2625 66.9125 65.8000
## [153] 63.4125 62.2625 60.9500 60.4125 62.4625 63.4750 65.0500 66.0625
## [161] 66.2500 65.3500 63.8375 61.7250 59.9375 58.7000 58.6250 58.9750
## [169] 59.5125 60.2000 60.4875 61.8625 63.4125 65.2250 65.7875 66.2625
## [177] 64.1000 62.0250 60.9750 58.5750 58.5875 58.8625 58.7875 60.3500
## [185] 60.9625 62.1000 62.9750 62.4250 62.2875 61.3875 61.6000 63.6875
## [193] 64.3625 64.8375 64.9750 63.1625 62.5375 62.4750 60.8625 60.6500
## [201] 60.4000 58.7875 58.5625 58.9500 59.8250 61.7375 63.1125 63.8750
## [209] 65.3250 67.0375 69.8375 72.4750 73.2250 73.9375 72.9000 72.7875
## [217] 73.1000 73.2625 74.5750 73.8000 73.8875 73.3625 71.9875 70.9875
## [225] 69.4250 68.3125 68.4000 69.5000 74.1000 77.8250 81.0375 81.8750
## [233] 78.3875 75.1500 71.5500 70.0625 69.6250 68.7250 68.2750 67.2375
## [241] 66.4125 67.3000 67.6125 68.8125 71.0125 74.2625 77.2250 78.9250
## [249] 78.7500 76.7750 75.3375 75.6125 77.0750 80.1125 83.7375 87.8875
## [257] 91.4625 95.2250 99.2750 101.4875 101.8500 101.3000 100.8375 101.2250
## [265] 104.7875 108.1250 111.8250 114.3125 117.1500 122.4000 125.7875 127.2000
## [273] 127.7250 123.3250 118.5625 119.5375 119.8375 121.1000 122.7125 120.7625
## [281] 119.9500 120.8625 119.3625 117.0125 112.9000 107.0375 104.8250 103.7375
## [289] 102.2375 102.5000 102.8000 103.2125 102.3750 99.5000 98.1625 94.9875
## [297] 93.0125 92.3500 90.7125 91.3750 94.2375 97.8500 99.0750 101.3375
## [305] 103.1625 101.5000 101.2625 97.9750 94.4250 93.8125 95.1125 99.2000
## [313] 105.9000 112.3000 116.2500 120.5500 120.0625 118.8500 116.6125 113.2750
## [321] 111.9000 109.5500 108.1000 106.6875 105.4125 106.0750 106.4750 108.1500
## [329] 108.2000 107.7375 106.8750 104.0375 101.7625 100.4500 98.9750 97.6250
## [337] 96.9250 96.4875 97.1125 97.5500 97.6250 97.6000 99.3625 101.1875
## [345] 103.1000 104.8000 104.2875 103.8250 102.6750 102.2375 103.3000 103.6625
## [353] 105.0125 104.4125 104.5000 106.6375 109.5875 112.3500 114.2375 116.9250
## [361] 118.4250 120.5375 123.0000 123.7500 123.4000 123.0875 121.6625 119.1875
## [369] 118.6625 117.2750 115.6500 116.3875 115.3875 114.5750 113.6375 112.1625
## [377] 110.8875 110.7250 111.5750 110.1625 108.7875 106.8250 104.3125 104.7625
## [385] 107.0500 110.6500 113.6625 114.9625 115.1375 113.5375 111.6375 109.9000
## [393] 110.0000 110.4250 113.0250 116.2375 116.6250 117.1125 115.8625 114.1500
## [401] 114.7750 118.5875 122.5875 128.4000 133.7125 132.4875 130.6875 126.1625
## [409] 121.7750 121.7500 122.2500 124.0125 125.5125 126.9750 129.6625 131.4500
## [417] 132.6875 134.0750 133.8000 133.3875 134.9875 137.7125 141.9000 149.0750
## [425] 155.4500 155.8375 155.8875 148.5750 140.0250 135.8125 131.0125 132.1000
## [433] 132.1125 131.2750 132.5625 133.2500 134.1375 135.4750 135.4375 134.5375
## [441] 137.0250 141.0875 144.5125 145.9250 143.8500 140.6375 138.2875 137.2250
## [449] 136.5250 137.2625 137.7000 138.4625 139.0250 137.2375 135.3000 131.1000
## [457] 126.1625 121.7875 115.4125 113.1500 112.3375 111.1750 111.2500 111.5250
## [465] 108.9000 108.6250 109.1250 107.7000 110.0250 111.7875 113.0000 115.8125
## [473] 117.8125 118.4750 117.6125 114.9250 112.5625 109.0000 107.9875 109.8125
## [481] 111.4125 114.6875 117.4375 116.3500 117.1375 117.5000 119.1000 123.0250
## [489] 127.0250 131.4125 133.4500 133.9500 129.3750 124.2125 119.5125 115.2000
## [497] 115.0875 116.8875 120.0875 126.4875 129.6625 129.6000 127.9125 124.1500
## [505] 123.2375 126.0125 127.6625 129.3750 131.9625 133.9825 136.1075 137.5275
## [513] 138.1725 135.2275 135.0525 135.8150 136.5450 139.5325 142.0325 142.3750
## [521] 141.0700 141.6450 140.4575 140.4075 139.4125 135.2750 133.2750 132.0625
## [529] 131.3375 131.1375 130.4875 129.3750 131.0750 133.4250 134.0625 133.7625
## [537] 132.7500 132.2000 132.2750 133.5625 133.7125 133.4750 133.6625 136.3375
## [545] 143.3000 151.4875 159.0625 163.6325 165.2075 164.7775 167.5975 168.7400
## [553] 171.1650 176.4150 177.5025 182.1025 185.5025 185.8950 186.1250 184.8500
## [561] 182.9250 182.5625 187.1250 192.7125 198.4625 201.9750 204.7250 204.4000
## [569] 204.2375 206.3700 210.2200 218.8500 227.8500 233.2800 235.6175 236.5300
## [577] 237.6550 242.3050 246.6425 254.4750 260.1500 266.0500 271.4875 272.7750
## [585] 273.0000 269.7500 270.0625 272.8875 279.3000 289.1625 292.1875 287.4875
## [593] 278.7125 269.8000 265.7750 264.6875 262.2875 258.6125 256.7375 256.2875
## [601] 257.0375 255.1625 249.1875 242.9000 239.8500 246.0125 255.8500 268.6500
## [609] 276.3750 275.5875 263.7250 248.6500 236.9250 231.0625 234.4125 235.9750
## [617] 237.4375 236.0375 233.3750 231.9875 231.2250 229.5000 223.6875 220.7575
## [625] 220.6825 219.3575 222.9325 224.8125 222.4375 220.9875 218.5000 212.1625
## [633] 208.6375 205.0625 197.6375 192.9625 186.8375 182.0375 181.3875 180.8500
## [641] 180.5875 178.7250 176.3500 175.6875 175.6875 173.8875 169.8875 164.6500
## [649] 157.7375 154.5750 157.9125 162.9875 171.5875 179.5375 180.2500 179.7250
## [657] 175.1750 168.5125 165.8750 163.5625 162.6750 167.8000 170.3375 172.5750
## [665] 173.8425 169.2300 166.3175 162.3800 159.1125 156.0000 152.4125 148.5125
## [673] 147.3075 145.3575 142.8825 143.9950 143.2375 144.5500 148.5375 150.8075
## [681] 151.1700 151.3200 148.2450 143.5625 142.2625 141.0000 141.5750 141.4625
## [689] 139.5125 138.0750 137.2750 136.9625 138.5500 137.7375 137.7750 139.9125
## [697] 138.4000 136.7375 133.4250 129.2125 125.8750 123.7375 121.9750 120.4750
## [705] 119.7000 120.6750 121.2375 120.5625 121.5000 120.9750 118.6750 117.1375
## [713] 114.9000 113.6625 114.0625 114.4625 114.5750 114.8625 114.8625 113.7125
## [721] 111.5000 108.3375 106.1125 105.6575 106.8325 107.2700 109.4575 111.4625
## [729] 112.9875 115.6250 117.1625 117.6250 117.1375 119.3500 123.1125 128.8000
## [737] 142.3375 155.9875 171.0750 185.5625 186.2125 186.4125 183.6500 184.4875
## [745] 192.0000 198.0375 201.9375 197.8500 193.1750 187.4625 181.6875 178.5000
## [753] 176.3000 174.1375 172.3750 172.3550 168.6675 168.0300 170.2050 175.2325
## [761] 180.7075 185.2200 185.8325 186.7375 189.7375 187.4625 186.5625 184.1375
## [769] 187.5500 197.7375 205.9000 207.2625 202.6375 193.1375 188.4750 188.0125
## [777] 187.8825 187.5575 183.0900 179.3975 174.7950 169.7825 171.2625 170.2925
## [785] 168.6375 168.8500 165.5500 163.6000 160.1500 153.8625 146.2750 137.0875
## [793] 135.7625 136.1250 137.2250 139.3875 138.2250 138.9625 137.1000 136.5500
## [801] 136.1750 132.6250 130.8000 131.3500 130.0625 130.1125 131.5000 129.1250
## [809] 126.8500 126.8125 124.4500 124.3625 125.5750 128.2000 128.1125 126.9125
## [817] 123.9250 117.8875 115.7500 116.3125 118.4250 122.9875 126.1125 125.0500
## [825] 124.2125 120.7500 117.3250 118.1875 118.2000 119.7625 121.2500 120.3875
## [833] 120.0625 120.7375 120.9625 120.0750 119.1500 116.5625 116.9125 117.0750
## [841] 117.0125 116.1750 115.7750 117.9875 122.5125 126.1500 128.2625 127.2750
## [849] 124.5500 123.3500 121.7500 122.5000 123.9625 124.4500 124.5625 125.4750
## [857] 127.5125 131.5250 134.7875 139.2250 140.6750 141.9125 143.8000 144.1375
## [865] 144.0750 141.8625 141.0875 140.5125 142.4125 145.6875 147.7625 149.6375
## [873] 150.0000 149.5125 151.5875 152.7625 156.2500 162.0875 163.1000 163.5375
## [881] 160.2375 152.7000 146.7250 141.8125 137.7750 136.7375 138.5625 141.3375
## [889] 145.6000 149.4375 150.2875 149.4000 148.0500 146.0500 144.8000 143.2750
## [897] 141.5250 139.8250 139.3375 139.4375 138.9625 137.0250 134.9625 133.2250
## [905] 131.6500 132.2125 132.2500 130.3625 128.8500 126.7125 123.9000 123.5250
## [913] 123.5250 125.5625 129.7125 133.1625 136.5625 138.7125 136.5875 134.6750
## [921] 131.5750 128.8500 131.8375 132.9000 132.9750 133.1250 129.7375 127.4375
## [929] 127.0750 125.5625 125.8375 125.4750 125.0250 125.9250 124.1875 122.4750
## [937] 121.3750 121.0375 123.0000 124.3250 124.5375 124.2750 122.2625 122.1625
## [945] 121.3375 119.9125data.ramal<-c(NA,data.sma)
data.ramal #forecast 1 periode ke depan## [1] NA NA NA NA 113.1500 112.8375 111.9000 110.1750
## [9] 106.2000 104.0625 103.3875 103.8375 104.9250 104.7625 103.1375 99.7750
## [17] 98.4250 96.3250 95.6375 95.4250 95.4750 96.4500 96.1250 96.1375
## [25] 93.4625 90.4250 87.7500 84.9875 85.4625 87.8625 88.5000 89.7000
## [33] 87.5750 83.0125 80.6000 77.9500 77.1375 76.6000 76.6625 78.6625
## [41] 79.1750 80.3750 81.9125 80.0625 78.6000 76.8750 72.9750 71.1500
## [49] 69.5000 66.8750 65.4625 64.7375 64.3750 64.5500 65.0750 65.8000
## [57] 66.1875 65.9000 65.3125 63.1875 62.6500 62.6750 62.4375 62.2375
## [65] 61.0250 60.2750 59.3750 59.0250 58.2875 58.4500 59.8375 61.6750
## [73] 63.3375 63.0750 61.6375 59.9375 58.8375 57.8375 57.3875 56.3125
## [81] 54.4750 53.9375 52.7375 51.8750 50.9625 51.1125 51.0250 51.0500
## [89] 51.0750 49.7500 49.0875 48.1250 47.1750 45.8750 44.6500 44.3375
## [97] 44.3375 45.5375 46.2875 45.5875 45.1625 43.9500 44.0125 44.9125
## [105] 46.3000 47.7375 47.9250 47.8500 47.0750 45.8250 45.0000 45.5250
## [113] 45.6250 46.6000 49.2625 50.8375 53.6750 55.3125 54.9250 54.6125
## [121] 52.7375 51.2375 49.8125 48.6500 49.0750 49.8000 50.2125 49.7250
## [129] 48.6500 47.3000 47.0500 47.9000 47.9625 48.4375 48.4250 47.8500
## [137] 47.7375 47.9375 48.7875 50.7750 54.0000 55.7125 56.7500 56.8750
## [145] 56.2625 57.9000 61.1250 63.1250 65.7500 66.7000 66.2625 66.9125
## [153] 65.8000 63.4125 62.2625 60.9500 60.4125 62.4625 63.4750 65.0500
## [161] 66.0625 66.2500 65.3500 63.8375 61.7250 59.9375 58.7000 58.6250
## [169] 58.9750 59.5125 60.2000 60.4875 61.8625 63.4125 65.2250 65.7875
## [177] 66.2625 64.1000 62.0250 60.9750 58.5750 58.5875 58.8625 58.7875
## [185] 60.3500 60.9625 62.1000 62.9750 62.4250 62.2875 61.3875 61.6000
## [193] 63.6875 64.3625 64.8375 64.9750 63.1625 62.5375 62.4750 60.8625
## [201] 60.6500 60.4000 58.7875 58.5625 58.9500 59.8250 61.7375 63.1125
## [209] 63.8750 65.3250 67.0375 69.8375 72.4750 73.2250 73.9375 72.9000
## [217] 72.7875 73.1000 73.2625 74.5750 73.8000 73.8875 73.3625 71.9875
## [225] 70.9875 69.4250 68.3125 68.4000 69.5000 74.1000 77.8250 81.0375
## [233] 81.8750 78.3875 75.1500 71.5500 70.0625 69.6250 68.7250 68.2750
## [241] 67.2375 66.4125 67.3000 67.6125 68.8125 71.0125 74.2625 77.2250
## [249] 78.9250 78.7500 76.7750 75.3375 75.6125 77.0750 80.1125 83.7375
## [257] 87.8875 91.4625 95.2250 99.2750 101.4875 101.8500 101.3000 100.8375
## [265] 101.2250 104.7875 108.1250 111.8250 114.3125 117.1500 122.4000 125.7875
## [273] 127.2000 127.7250 123.3250 118.5625 119.5375 119.8375 121.1000 122.7125
## [281] 120.7625 119.9500 120.8625 119.3625 117.0125 112.9000 107.0375 104.8250
## [289] 103.7375 102.2375 102.5000 102.8000 103.2125 102.3750 99.5000 98.1625
## [297] 94.9875 93.0125 92.3500 90.7125 91.3750 94.2375 97.8500 99.0750
## [305] 101.3375 103.1625 101.5000 101.2625 97.9750 94.4250 93.8125 95.1125
## [313] 99.2000 105.9000 112.3000 116.2500 120.5500 120.0625 118.8500 116.6125
## [321] 113.2750 111.9000 109.5500 108.1000 106.6875 105.4125 106.0750 106.4750
## [329] 108.1500 108.2000 107.7375 106.8750 104.0375 101.7625 100.4500 98.9750
## [337] 97.6250 96.9250 96.4875 97.1125 97.5500 97.6250 97.6000 99.3625
## [345] 101.1875 103.1000 104.8000 104.2875 103.8250 102.6750 102.2375 103.3000
## [353] 103.6625 105.0125 104.4125 104.5000 106.6375 109.5875 112.3500 114.2375
## [361] 116.9250 118.4250 120.5375 123.0000 123.7500 123.4000 123.0875 121.6625
## [369] 119.1875 118.6625 117.2750 115.6500 116.3875 115.3875 114.5750 113.6375
## [377] 112.1625 110.8875 110.7250 111.5750 110.1625 108.7875 106.8250 104.3125
## [385] 104.7625 107.0500 110.6500 113.6625 114.9625 115.1375 113.5375 111.6375
## [393] 109.9000 110.0000 110.4250 113.0250 116.2375 116.6250 117.1125 115.8625
## [401] 114.1500 114.7750 118.5875 122.5875 128.4000 133.7125 132.4875 130.6875
## [409] 126.1625 121.7750 121.7500 122.2500 124.0125 125.5125 126.9750 129.6625
## [417] 131.4500 132.6875 134.0750 133.8000 133.3875 134.9875 137.7125 141.9000
## [425] 149.0750 155.4500 155.8375 155.8875 148.5750 140.0250 135.8125 131.0125
## [433] 132.1000 132.1125 131.2750 132.5625 133.2500 134.1375 135.4750 135.4375
## [441] 134.5375 137.0250 141.0875 144.5125 145.9250 143.8500 140.6375 138.2875
## [449] 137.2250 136.5250 137.2625 137.7000 138.4625 139.0250 137.2375 135.3000
## [457] 131.1000 126.1625 121.7875 115.4125 113.1500 112.3375 111.1750 111.2500
## [465] 111.5250 108.9000 108.6250 109.1250 107.7000 110.0250 111.7875 113.0000
## [473] 115.8125 117.8125 118.4750 117.6125 114.9250 112.5625 109.0000 107.9875
## [481] 109.8125 111.4125 114.6875 117.4375 116.3500 117.1375 117.5000 119.1000
## [489] 123.0250 127.0250 131.4125 133.4500 133.9500 129.3750 124.2125 119.5125
## [497] 115.2000 115.0875 116.8875 120.0875 126.4875 129.6625 129.6000 127.9125
## [505] 124.1500 123.2375 126.0125 127.6625 129.3750 131.9625 133.9825 136.1075
## [513] 137.5275 138.1725 135.2275 135.0525 135.8150 136.5450 139.5325 142.0325
## [521] 142.3750 141.0700 141.6450 140.4575 140.4075 139.4125 135.2750 133.2750
## [529] 132.0625 131.3375 131.1375 130.4875 129.3750 131.0750 133.4250 134.0625
## [537] 133.7625 132.7500 132.2000 132.2750 133.5625 133.7125 133.4750 133.6625
## [545] 136.3375 143.3000 151.4875 159.0625 163.6325 165.2075 164.7775 167.5975
## [553] 168.7400 171.1650 176.4150 177.5025 182.1025 185.5025 185.8950 186.1250
## [561] 184.8500 182.9250 182.5625 187.1250 192.7125 198.4625 201.9750 204.7250
## [569] 204.4000 204.2375 206.3700 210.2200 218.8500 227.8500 233.2800 235.6175
## [577] 236.5300 237.6550 242.3050 246.6425 254.4750 260.1500 266.0500 271.4875
## [585] 272.7750 273.0000 269.7500 270.0625 272.8875 279.3000 289.1625 292.1875
## [593] 287.4875 278.7125 269.8000 265.7750 264.6875 262.2875 258.6125 256.7375
## [601] 256.2875 257.0375 255.1625 249.1875 242.9000 239.8500 246.0125 255.8500
## [609] 268.6500 276.3750 275.5875 263.7250 248.6500 236.9250 231.0625 234.4125
## [617] 235.9750 237.4375 236.0375 233.3750 231.9875 231.2250 229.5000 223.6875
## [625] 220.7575 220.6825 219.3575 222.9325 224.8125 222.4375 220.9875 218.5000
## [633] 212.1625 208.6375 205.0625 197.6375 192.9625 186.8375 182.0375 181.3875
## [641] 180.8500 180.5875 178.7250 176.3500 175.6875 175.6875 173.8875 169.8875
## [649] 164.6500 157.7375 154.5750 157.9125 162.9875 171.5875 179.5375 180.2500
## [657] 179.7250 175.1750 168.5125 165.8750 163.5625 162.6750 167.8000 170.3375
## [665] 172.5750 173.8425 169.2300 166.3175 162.3800 159.1125 156.0000 152.4125
## [673] 148.5125 147.3075 145.3575 142.8825 143.9950 143.2375 144.5500 148.5375
## [681] 150.8075 151.1700 151.3200 148.2450 143.5625 142.2625 141.0000 141.5750
## [689] 141.4625 139.5125 138.0750 137.2750 136.9625 138.5500 137.7375 137.7750
## [697] 139.9125 138.4000 136.7375 133.4250 129.2125 125.8750 123.7375 121.9750
## [705] 120.4750 119.7000 120.6750 121.2375 120.5625 121.5000 120.9750 118.6750
## [713] 117.1375 114.9000 113.6625 114.0625 114.4625 114.5750 114.8625 114.8625
## [721] 113.7125 111.5000 108.3375 106.1125 105.6575 106.8325 107.2700 109.4575
## [729] 111.4625 112.9875 115.6250 117.1625 117.6250 117.1375 119.3500 123.1125
## [737] 128.8000 142.3375 155.9875 171.0750 185.5625 186.2125 186.4125 183.6500
## [745] 184.4875 192.0000 198.0375 201.9375 197.8500 193.1750 187.4625 181.6875
## [753] 178.5000 176.3000 174.1375 172.3750 172.3550 168.6675 168.0300 170.2050
## [761] 175.2325 180.7075 185.2200 185.8325 186.7375 189.7375 187.4625 186.5625
## [769] 184.1375 187.5500 197.7375 205.9000 207.2625 202.6375 193.1375 188.4750
## [777] 188.0125 187.8825 187.5575 183.0900 179.3975 174.7950 169.7825 171.2625
## [785] 170.2925 168.6375 168.8500 165.5500 163.6000 160.1500 153.8625 146.2750
## [793] 137.0875 135.7625 136.1250 137.2250 139.3875 138.2250 138.9625 137.1000
## [801] 136.5500 136.1750 132.6250 130.8000 131.3500 130.0625 130.1125 131.5000
## [809] 129.1250 126.8500 126.8125 124.4500 124.3625 125.5750 128.2000 128.1125
## [817] 126.9125 123.9250 117.8875 115.7500 116.3125 118.4250 122.9875 126.1125
## [825] 125.0500 124.2125 120.7500 117.3250 118.1875 118.2000 119.7625 121.2500
## [833] 120.3875 120.0625 120.7375 120.9625 120.0750 119.1500 116.5625 116.9125
## [841] 117.0750 117.0125 116.1750 115.7750 117.9875 122.5125 126.1500 128.2625
## [849] 127.2750 124.5500 123.3500 121.7500 122.5000 123.9625 124.4500 124.5625
## [857] 125.4750 127.5125 131.5250 134.7875 139.2250 140.6750 141.9125 143.8000
## [865] 144.1375 144.0750 141.8625 141.0875 140.5125 142.4125 145.6875 147.7625
## [873] 149.6375 150.0000 149.5125 151.5875 152.7625 156.2500 162.0875 163.1000
## [881] 163.5375 160.2375 152.7000 146.7250 141.8125 137.7750 136.7375 138.5625
## [889] 141.3375 145.6000 149.4375 150.2875 149.4000 148.0500 146.0500 144.8000
## [897] 143.2750 141.5250 139.8250 139.3375 139.4375 138.9625 137.0250 134.9625
## [905] 133.2250 131.6500 132.2125 132.2500 130.3625 128.8500 126.7125 123.9000
## [913] 123.5250 123.5250 125.5625 129.7125 133.1625 136.5625 138.7125 136.5875
## [921] 134.6750 131.5750 128.8500 131.8375 132.9000 132.9750 133.1250 129.7375
## [929] 127.4375 127.0750 125.5625 125.8375 125.4750 125.0250 125.9250 124.1875
## [937] 122.4750 121.3750 121.0375 123.0000 124.3250 124.5375 124.2750 122.2625
## [945] 122.1625 121.3375 119.9125Selanjutnya akan dilakukan peramalan sejumlah data uji yaitu 24 periode. Pada metode SMA, hasil peramalan 24 periode ke depan akan bernilai sama dengan hasil peramalan 1 periode kedepan. Dalam hal ini akan dilakukan pengguabungan data aktual train, data hasil pemulusan dan data hasil ramalan 24 periode kedepan.
data.gab<-cbind(aktual=c(train_ma.ts,rep(NA,236)),pemulusan=c(data.sma,rep(NA,236)),ramalan=c(data.ramal,rep(data.ramal[length(data.ramal)],235)))
data.gab #forecast 24 periode ke depan## aktual pemulusan ramalan
## [1,] 114.15 NA NA
## [2,] 112.55 NA NA
## [3,] 111.20 NA NA
## [4,] 114.70 113.1500 NA
## [5,] 112.90 112.8375 113.1500
## [6,] 108.80 111.9000 112.8375
## [7,] 104.30 110.1750 111.9000
## [8,] 98.80 106.2000 110.1750
## [9,] 104.35 104.0625 106.2000
## [10,] 106.10 103.3875 104.0625
## [11,] 106.10 103.8375 103.3875
## [12,] 103.15 104.9250 103.8375
## [13,] 103.70 104.7625 104.9250
## [14,] 99.60 103.1375 104.7625
## [15,] 92.65 99.7750 103.1375
## [16,] 97.75 98.4250 99.7750
## [17,] 95.30 96.3250 98.4250
## [18,] 96.85 95.6375 96.3250
## [19,] 91.80 95.4250 95.6375
## [20,] 97.95 95.4750 95.4250
## [21,] 99.20 96.4500 95.4750
## [22,] 95.55 96.1250 96.4500
## [23,] 91.85 96.1375 96.1250
## [24,] 87.25 93.4625 96.1375
## [25,] 87.05 90.4250 93.4625
## [26,] 84.85 87.7500 90.4250
## [27,] 80.80 84.9875 87.7500
## [28,] 89.15 85.4625 84.9875
## [29,] 96.65 87.8625 85.4625
## [30,] 87.40 88.5000 87.8625
## [31,] 85.60 89.7000 88.5000
## [32,] 80.65 87.5750 89.7000
## [33,] 78.40 83.0125 87.5750
## [34,] 77.75 80.6000 83.0125
## [35,] 75.00 77.9500 80.6000
## [36,] 77.40 77.1375 77.9500
## [37,] 76.25 76.6000 77.1375
## [38,] 78.00 76.6625 76.6000
## [39,] 83.00 78.6625 76.6625
## [40,] 79.45 79.1750 78.6625
## [41,] 81.05 80.3750 79.1750
## [42,] 84.15 81.9125 80.3750
## [43,] 75.60 80.0625 81.9125
## [44,] 73.60 78.6000 80.0625
## [45,] 74.15 76.8750 78.6000
## [46,] 68.55 72.9750 76.8750
## [47,] 68.30 71.1500 72.9750
## [48,] 67.00 69.5000 71.1500
## [49,] 63.65 66.8750 69.5000
## [50,] 62.90 65.4625 66.8750
## [51,] 65.40 64.7375 65.4625
## [52,] 65.55 64.3750 64.7375
## [53,] 64.35 64.5500 64.3750
## [54,] 65.00 65.0750 64.5500
## [55,] 68.30 65.8000 65.0750
## [56,] 67.10 66.1875 65.8000
## [57,] 63.20 65.9000 66.1875
## [58,] 62.65 65.3125 65.9000
## [59,] 59.80 63.1875 65.3125
## [60,] 64.95 62.6500 63.1875
## [61,] 63.30 62.6750 62.6500
## [62,] 61.70 62.4375 62.6750
## [63,] 59.00 62.2375 62.4375
## [64,] 60.10 61.0250 62.2375
## [65,] 60.30 60.2750 61.0250
## [66,] 58.10 59.3750 60.2750
## [67,] 57.60 59.0250 59.3750
## [68,] 57.15 58.2875 59.0250
## [69,] 60.95 58.4500 58.2875
## [70,] 63.65 59.8375 58.4500
## [71,] 64.95 61.6750 59.8375
## [72,] 63.80 63.3375 61.6750
## [73,] 59.90 63.0750 63.3375
## [74,] 57.90 61.6375 63.0750
## [75,] 58.15 59.9375 61.6375
## [76,] 59.40 58.8375 59.9375
## [77,] 55.90 57.8375 58.8375
## [78,] 56.10 57.3875 57.8375
## [79,] 53.85 56.3125 57.3875
## [80,] 52.05 54.4750 56.3125
## [81,] 53.75 53.9375 54.4750
## [82,] 51.30 52.7375 53.9375
## [83,] 50.40 51.8750 52.7375
## [84,] 48.40 50.9625 51.8750
## [85,] 54.35 51.1125 50.9625
## [86,] 50.95 51.0250 51.1125
## [87,] 50.50 51.0500 51.0250
## [88,] 48.50 51.0750 51.0500
## [89,] 49.05 49.7500 51.0750
## [90,] 48.30 49.0875 49.7500
## [91,] 46.65 48.1250 49.0875
## [92,] 44.70 47.1750 48.1250
## [93,] 43.85 45.8750 47.1750
## [94,] 43.40 44.6500 45.8750
## [95,] 45.40 44.3375 44.6500
## [96,] 44.70 44.3375 44.3375
## [97,] 48.65 45.5375 44.3375
## [98,] 46.40 46.2875 45.5375
## [99,] 42.60 45.5875 46.2875
## [100,] 43.00 45.1625 45.5875
## [101,] 43.80 43.9500 45.1625
## [102,] 46.65 44.0125 43.9500
## [103,] 46.20 44.9125 44.0125
## [104,] 48.55 46.3000 44.9125
## [105,] 49.55 47.7375 46.3000
## [106,] 47.40 47.9250 47.7375
## [107,] 45.90 47.8500 47.9250
## [108,] 45.45 47.0750 47.8500
## [109,] 44.55 45.8250 47.0750
## [110,] 44.10 45.0000 45.8250
## [111,] 48.00 45.5250 45.0000
## [112,] 45.85 45.6250 45.5250
## [113,] 48.45 46.6000 45.6250
## [114,] 54.75 49.2625 46.6000
## [115,] 54.30 50.8375 49.2625
## [116,] 57.20 53.6750 50.8375
## [117,] 55.00 55.3125 53.6750
## [118,] 53.20 54.9250 55.3125
## [119,] 53.05 54.6125 54.9250
## [120,] 49.70 52.7375 54.6125
## [121,] 49.00 51.2375 52.7375
## [122,] 47.50 49.8125 51.2375
## [123,] 48.40 48.6500 49.8125
## [124,] 51.40 49.0750 48.6500
## [125,] 51.90 49.8000 49.0750
## [126,] 49.15 50.2125 49.8000
## [127,] 46.45 49.7250 50.2125
## [128,] 47.10 48.6500 49.7250
## [129,] 46.50 47.3000 48.6500
## [130,] 48.15 47.0500 47.3000
## [131,] 49.85 47.9000 47.0500
## [132,] 47.35 47.9625 47.9000
## [133,] 48.40 48.4375 47.9625
## [134,] 48.10 48.4250 48.4375
## [135,] 47.55 47.8500 48.4250
## [136,] 46.90 47.7375 47.8500
## [137,] 49.20 47.9375 47.7375
## [138,] 51.50 48.7875 47.9375
## [139,] 55.50 50.7750 48.7875
## [140,] 59.80 54.0000 50.7750
## [141,] 56.05 55.7125 54.0000
## [142,] 55.65 56.7500 55.7125
## [143,] 56.00 56.8750 56.7500
## [144,] 57.35 56.2625 56.8750
## [145,] 62.60 57.9000 56.2625
## [146,] 68.55 61.1250 57.9000
## [147,] 64.00 63.1250 61.1250
## [148,] 67.85 65.7500 63.1250
## [149,] 66.40 66.7000 65.7500
## [150,] 66.80 66.2625 66.7000
## [151,] 66.60 66.9125 66.2625
## [152,] 63.40 65.8000 66.9125
## [153,] 56.85 63.4125 65.8000
## [154,] 62.20 62.2625 63.4125
## [155,] 61.35 60.9500 62.2625
## [156,] 61.25 60.4125 60.9500
## [157,] 65.05 62.4625 60.4125
## [158,] 66.25 63.4750 62.4625
## [159,] 67.65 65.0500 63.4750
## [160,] 65.30 66.0625 65.0500
## [161,] 65.80 66.2500 66.0625
## [162,] 62.65 65.3500 66.2500
## [163,] 61.60 63.8375 65.3500
## [164,] 56.85 61.7250 63.8375
## [165,] 58.65 59.9375 61.7250
## [166,] 57.70 58.7000 59.9375
## [167,] 61.30 58.6250 58.7000
## [168,] 58.25 58.9750 58.6250
## [169,] 60.80 59.5125 58.9750
## [170,] 60.45 60.2000 59.5125
## [171,] 62.45 60.4875 60.2000
## [172,] 63.75 61.8625 60.4875
## [173,] 67.00 63.4125 61.8625
## [174,] 67.70 65.2250 63.4125
## [175,] 64.70 65.7875 65.2250
## [176,] 65.65 66.2625 65.7875
## [177,] 58.35 64.1000 66.2625
## [178,] 59.40 62.0250 64.1000
## [179,] 60.50 60.9750 62.0250
## [180,] 56.05 58.5750 60.9750
## [181,] 58.40 58.5875 58.5750
## [182,] 60.50 58.8625 58.5875
## [183,] 60.20 58.7875 58.8625
## [184,] 62.30 60.3500 58.7875
## [185,] 60.85 60.9625 60.3500
## [186,] 65.05 62.1000 60.9625
## [187,] 63.70 62.9750 62.1000
## [188,] 60.10 62.4250 62.9750
## [189,] 60.30 62.2875 62.4250
## [190,] 61.45 61.3875 62.2875
## [191,] 64.55 61.6000 61.3875
## [192,] 68.45 63.6875 61.6000
## [193,] 63.00 64.3625 63.6875
## [194,] 63.35 64.8375 64.3625
## [195,] 65.10 64.9750 64.8375
## [196,] 61.20 63.1625 64.9750
## [197,] 60.50 62.5375 63.1625
## [198,] 63.10 62.4750 62.5375
## [199,] 58.65 60.8625 62.4750
## [200,] 60.35 60.6500 60.8625
## [201,] 59.50 60.4000 60.6500
## [202,] 56.65 58.7875 60.4000
## [203,] 57.75 58.5625 58.7875
## [204,] 61.90 58.9500 58.5625
## [205,] 63.00 59.8250 58.9500
## [206,] 64.30 61.7375 59.8250
## [207,] 63.25 63.1125 61.7375
## [208,] 64.95 63.8750 63.1125
## [209,] 68.80 65.3250 63.8750
## [210,] 71.15 67.0375 65.3250
## [211,] 74.45 69.8375 67.0375
## [212,] 75.50 72.4750 69.8375
## [213,] 71.80 73.2250 72.4750
## [214,] 74.00 73.9375 73.2250
## [215,] 70.30 72.9000 73.9375
## [216,] 75.05 72.7875 72.9000
## [217,] 73.05 73.1000 72.7875
## [218,] 74.65 73.2625 73.1000
## [219,] 75.55 74.5750 73.2625
## [220,] 71.95 73.8000 74.5750
## [221,] 73.40 73.8875 73.8000
## [222,] 72.55 73.3625 73.8875
## [223,] 70.05 71.9875 73.3625
## [224,] 67.95 70.9875 71.9875
## [225,] 67.15 69.4250 70.9875
## [226,] 68.10 68.3125 69.4250
## [227,] 70.40 68.4000 68.3125
## [228,] 72.35 69.5000 68.4000
## [229,] 85.55 74.1000 69.5000
## [230,] 83.00 77.8250 74.1000
## [231,] 83.25 81.0375 77.8250
## [232,] 75.70 81.8750 81.0375
## [233,] 71.60 78.3875 81.8750
## [234,] 70.05 75.1500 78.3875
## [235,] 68.85 71.5500 75.1500
## [236,] 69.75 70.0625 71.5500
## [237,] 69.85 69.6250 70.0625
## [238,] 66.45 68.7250 69.6250
## [239,] 67.05 68.2750 68.7250
## [240,] 65.60 67.2375 68.2750
## [241,] 66.55 66.4125 67.2375
## [242,] 70.00 67.3000 66.4125
## [243,] 68.30 67.6125 67.3000
## [244,] 70.40 68.8125 67.6125
## [245,] 75.35 71.0125 68.8125
## [246,] 83.00 74.2625 71.0125
## [247,] 80.15 77.2250 74.2625
## [248,] 77.20 78.9250 77.2250
## [249,] 74.65 78.7500 78.9250
## [250,] 75.10 76.7750 78.7500
## [251,] 74.40 75.3375 76.7750
## [252,] 78.30 75.6125 75.3375
## [253,] 80.50 77.0750 75.6125
## [254,] 87.25 80.1125 77.0750
## [255,] 88.90 83.7375 80.1125
## [256,] 94.90 87.8875 83.7375
## [257,] 94.80 91.4625 87.8875
## [258,] 102.30 95.2250 91.4625
## [259,] 105.10 99.2750 95.2250
## [260,] 103.75 101.4875 99.2750
## [261,] 96.25 101.8500 101.4875
## [262,] 100.10 101.3000 101.8500
## [263,] 103.25 100.8375 101.3000
## [264,] 105.30 101.2250 100.8375
## [265,] 110.50 104.7875 101.2250
## [266,] 113.45 108.1250 104.7875
## [267,] 118.05 111.8250 108.1250
## [268,] 115.25 114.3125 111.8250
## [269,] 121.85 117.1500 114.3125
## [270,] 134.45 122.4000 117.1500
## [271,] 131.60 125.7875 122.4000
## [272,] 120.90 127.2000 125.7875
## [273,] 123.95 127.7250 127.2000
## [274,] 116.85 123.3250 127.7250
## [275,] 112.55 118.5625 123.3250
## [276,] 124.80 119.5375 118.5625
## [277,] 125.15 119.8375 119.5375
## [278,] 121.90 121.1000 119.8375
## [279,] 119.00 122.7125 121.1000
## [280,] 117.00 120.7625 122.7125
## [281,] 121.90 119.9500 120.7625
## [282,] 125.55 120.8625 119.9500
## [283,] 113.00 119.3625 120.8625
## [284,] 107.60 117.0125 119.3625
## [285,] 105.45 112.9000 117.0125
## [286,] 102.10 107.0375 112.9000
## [287,] 104.15 104.8250 107.0375
## [288,] 103.25 103.7375 104.8250
## [289,] 99.45 102.2375 103.7375
## [290,] 103.15 102.5000 102.2375
## [291,] 105.35 102.8000 102.5000
## [292,] 104.90 103.2125 102.8000
## [293,] 96.10 102.3750 103.2125
## [294,] 91.65 99.5000 102.3750
## [295,] 100.00 98.1625 99.5000
## [296,] 92.20 94.9875 98.1625
## [297,] 88.20 93.0125 94.9875
## [298,] 89.00 92.3500 93.0125
## [299,] 93.45 90.7125 92.3500
## [300,] 94.85 91.3750 90.7125
## [301,] 99.65 94.2375 91.3750
## [302,] 103.45 97.8500 94.2375
## [303,] 98.35 99.0750 97.8500
## [304,] 103.90 101.3375 99.0750
## [305,] 106.95 103.1625 101.3375
## [306,] 96.80 101.5000 103.1625
## [307,] 97.40 101.2625 101.5000
## [308,] 90.75 97.9750 101.2625
## [309,] 92.75 94.4250 97.9750
## [310,] 94.35 93.8125 94.4250
## [311,] 102.60 95.1125 93.8125
## [312,] 107.10 99.2000 95.1125
## [313,] 119.55 105.9000 99.2000
## [314,] 119.95 112.3000 105.9000
## [315,] 118.40 116.2500 112.3000
## [316,] 124.30 120.5500 116.2500
## [317,] 117.60 120.0625 120.5500
## [318,] 115.10 118.8500 120.0625
## [319,] 109.45 116.6125 118.8500
## [320,] 110.95 113.2750 116.6125
## [321,] 112.10 111.9000 113.2750
## [322,] 105.70 109.5500 111.9000
## [323,] 103.65 108.1000 109.5500
## [324,] 105.30 106.6875 108.1000
## [325,] 107.00 105.4125 106.6875
## [326,] 108.35 106.0750 105.4125
## [327,] 105.25 106.4750 106.0750
## [328,] 112.00 108.1500 106.4750
## [329,] 107.20 108.2000 108.1500
## [330,] 106.50 107.7375 108.2000
## [331,] 101.80 106.8750 107.7375
## [332,] 100.65 104.0375 106.8750
## [333,] 98.10 101.7625 104.0375
## [334,] 101.25 100.4500 101.7625
## [335,] 95.90 98.9750 100.4500
## [336,] 95.25 97.6250 98.9750
## [337,] 95.30 96.9250 97.6250
## [338,] 99.50 96.4875 96.9250
## [339,] 98.40 97.1125 96.4875
## [340,] 97.00 97.5500 97.1125
## [341,] 95.60 97.6250 97.5500
## [342,] 99.40 97.6000 97.6250
## [343,] 105.45 99.3625 97.6000
## [344,] 104.30 101.1875 99.3625
## [345,] 103.25 103.1000 101.1875
## [346,] 106.20 104.8000 103.1000
## [347,] 103.40 104.2875 104.8000
## [348,] 102.45 103.8250 104.2875
## [349,] 98.65 102.6750 103.8250
## [350,] 104.45 102.2375 102.6750
## [351,] 107.65 103.3000 102.2375
## [352,] 103.90 103.6625 103.3000
## [353,] 104.05 105.0125 103.6625
## [354,] 102.05 104.4125 105.0125
## [355,] 108.00 104.5000 104.4125
## [356,] 112.45 106.6375 104.5000
## [357,] 115.85 109.5875 106.6375
## [358,] 113.10 112.3500 109.5875
## [359,] 115.55 114.2375 112.3500
## [360,] 123.20 116.9250 114.2375
## [361,] 121.85 118.4250 116.9250
## [362,] 121.55 120.5375 118.4250
## [363,] 125.40 123.0000 120.5375
## [364,] 126.20 123.7500 123.0000
## [365,] 120.45 123.4000 123.7500
## [366,] 120.30 123.0875 123.4000
## [367,] 119.70 121.6625 123.0875
## [368,] 116.30 119.1875 121.6625
## [369,] 118.35 118.6625 119.1875
## [370,] 114.75 117.2750 118.6625
## [371,] 113.20 115.6500 117.2750
## [372,] 119.25 116.3875 115.6500
## [373,] 114.35 115.3875 116.3875
## [374,] 111.50 114.5750 115.3875
## [375,] 109.45 113.6375 114.5750
## [376,] 113.35 112.1625 113.6375
## [377,] 109.25 110.8875 112.1625
## [378,] 110.85 110.7250 110.8875
## [379,] 112.85 111.5750 110.7250
## [380,] 107.70 110.1625 111.5750
## [381,] 103.75 108.7875 110.1625
## [382,] 103.00 106.8250 108.7875
## [383,] 102.80 104.3125 106.8250
## [384,] 109.50 104.7625 104.3125
## [385,] 112.90 107.0500 104.7625
## [386,] 117.40 110.6500 107.0500
## [387,] 114.85 113.6625 110.6500
## [388,] 114.70 114.9625 113.6625
## [389,] 113.60 115.1375 114.9625
## [390,] 111.00 113.5375 115.1375
## [391,] 107.25 111.6375 113.5375
## [392,] 107.75 109.9000 111.6375
## [393,] 114.00 110.0000 109.9000
## [394,] 112.70 110.4250 110.0000
## [395,] 117.65 113.0250 110.4250
## [396,] 120.60 116.2375 113.0250
## [397,] 115.55 116.6250 116.2375
## [398,] 114.65 117.1125 116.6250
## [399,] 112.65 115.8625 117.1125
## [400,] 113.75 114.1500 115.8625
## [401,] 118.05 114.7750 114.1500
## [402,] 129.90 118.5875 114.7750
## [403,] 128.65 122.5875 118.5875
## [404,] 137.00 128.4000 122.5875
## [405,] 139.30 133.7125 128.4000
## [406,] 125.00 132.4875 133.7125
## [407,] 121.45 130.6875 132.4875
## [408,] 118.90 126.1625 130.6875
## [409,] 121.75 121.7750 126.1625
## [410,] 124.90 121.7500 121.7750
## [411,] 123.45 122.2500 121.7500
## [412,] 125.95 124.0125 122.2500
## [413,] 127.75 125.5125 124.0125
## [414,] 130.75 126.9750 125.5125
## [415,] 134.20 129.6625 126.9750
## [416,] 133.10 131.4500 129.6625
## [417,] 132.70 132.6875 131.4500
## [418,] 136.30 134.0750 132.6875
## [419,] 133.10 133.8000 134.0750
## [420,] 131.45 133.3875 133.8000
## [421,] 139.10 134.9875 133.3875
## [422,] 147.20 137.7125 134.9875
## [423,] 149.85 141.9000 137.7125
## [424,] 160.15 149.0750 141.9000
## [425,] 164.60 155.4500 149.0750
## [426,] 148.75 155.8375 155.4500
## [427,] 150.05 155.8875 155.8375
## [428,] 130.90 148.5750 155.8875
## [429,] 130.40 140.0250 148.5750
## [430,] 131.90 135.8125 140.0250
## [431,] 130.85 131.0125 135.8125
## [432,] 135.25 132.1000 131.0125
## [433,] 130.45 132.1125 132.1000
## [434,] 128.55 131.2750 132.1125
## [435,] 136.00 132.5625 131.2750
## [436,] 138.00 133.2500 132.5625
## [437,] 134.00 134.1375 133.2500
## [438,] 133.90 135.4750 134.1375
## [439,] 135.85 135.4375 135.4750
## [440,] 134.40 134.5375 135.4375
## [441,] 143.95 137.0250 134.5375
## [442,] 150.15 141.0875 137.0250
## [443,] 149.55 144.5125 141.0875
## [444,] 140.05 145.9250 144.5125
## [445,] 135.65 143.8500 145.9250
## [446,] 137.30 140.6375 143.8500
## [447,] 140.15 138.2875 140.6375
## [448,] 135.80 137.2250 138.2875
## [449,] 132.85 136.5250 137.2250
## [450,] 140.25 137.2625 136.5250
## [451,] 141.90 137.7000 137.2625
## [452,] 138.85 138.4625 137.7000
## [453,] 135.10 139.0250 138.4625
## [454,] 133.10 137.2375 139.0250
## [455,] 134.15 135.3000 137.2375
## [456,] 122.05 131.1000 135.3000
## [457,] 115.35 126.1625 131.1000
## [458,] 115.60 121.7875 126.1625
## [459,] 108.65 115.4125 121.7875
## [460,] 113.00 113.1500 115.4125
## [461,] 112.10 112.3375 113.1500
## [462,] 110.95 111.1750 112.3375
## [463,] 108.95 111.2500 111.1750
## [464,] 114.10 111.5250 111.2500
## [465,] 101.60 108.9000 111.5250
## [466,] 109.85 108.6250 108.9000
## [467,] 110.95 109.1250 108.6250
## [468,] 108.40 107.7000 109.1250
## [469,] 110.90 110.0250 107.7000
## [470,] 116.90 111.7875 110.0250
## [471,] 115.80 113.0000 111.7875
## [472,] 119.65 115.8125 113.0000
## [473,] 118.90 117.8125 115.8125
## [474,] 119.55 118.4750 117.8125
## [475,] 112.35 117.6125 118.4750
## [476,] 108.90 114.9250 117.6125
## [477,] 109.45 112.5625 114.9250
## [478,] 105.30 109.0000 112.5625
## [479,] 108.30 107.9875 109.0000
## [480,] 116.20 109.8125 107.9875
## [481,] 115.85 111.4125 109.8125
## [482,] 118.40 114.6875 111.4125
## [483,] 119.30 117.4375 114.6875
## [484,] 111.85 116.3500 117.4375
## [485,] 119.00 117.1375 116.3500
## [486,] 119.85 117.5000 117.1375
## [487,] 125.70 119.1000 117.5000
## [488,] 127.55 123.0250 119.1000
## [489,] 135.00 127.0250 123.0250
## [490,] 137.40 131.4125 127.0250
## [491,] 133.85 133.4500 131.4125
## [492,] 129.55 133.9500 133.4500
## [493,] 116.70 129.3750 133.9500
## [494,] 116.75 124.2125 129.3750
## [495,] 115.05 119.5125 124.2125
## [496,] 112.30 115.2000 119.5125
## [497,] 116.25 115.0875 115.2000
## [498,] 123.95 116.8875 115.0875
## [499,] 127.85 120.0875 116.8875
## [500,] 137.90 126.4875 120.0875
## [501,] 128.95 129.6625 126.4875
## [502,] 123.70 129.6000 129.6625
## [503,] 121.10 127.9125 129.6000
## [504,] 122.85 124.1500 127.9125
## [505,] 125.30 123.2375 124.1500
## [506,] 134.80 126.0125 123.2375
## [507,] 127.70 127.6625 126.0125
## [508,] 129.70 129.3750 127.6625
## [509,] 135.65 131.9625 129.3750
## [510,] 142.88 133.9825 131.9625
## [511,] 136.20 136.1075 133.9825
## [512,] 135.38 137.5275 136.1075
## [513,] 138.23 138.1725 137.5275
## [514,] 131.10 135.2275 138.1725
## [515,] 135.50 135.0525 135.2275
## [516,] 138.43 135.8150 135.0525
## [517,] 141.15 136.5450 135.8150
## [518,] 143.05 139.5325 136.5450
## [519,] 145.50 142.0325 139.5325
## [520,] 139.80 142.3750 142.0325
## [521,] 135.93 141.0700 142.3750
## [522,] 145.35 141.6450 141.0700
## [523,] 140.75 140.4575 141.6450
## [524,] 139.60 140.4075 140.4575
## [525,] 131.95 139.4125 140.4075
## [526,] 128.80 135.2750 139.4125
## [527,] 132.75 133.2750 135.2750
## [528,] 134.75 132.0625 133.2750
## [529,] 129.05 131.3375 132.0625
## [530,] 128.00 131.1375 131.3375
## [531,] 130.15 130.4875 131.1375
## [532,] 130.30 129.3750 130.4875
## [533,] 135.85 131.0750 129.3750
## [534,] 137.40 133.4250 131.0750
## [535,] 132.70 134.0625 133.4250
## [536,] 129.10 133.7625 134.0625
## [537,] 131.80 132.7500 133.7625
## [538,] 135.20 132.2000 132.7500
## [539,] 133.00 132.2750 132.2000
## [540,] 134.25 133.5625 132.2750
## [541,] 132.40 133.7125 133.5625
## [542,] 134.25 133.4750 133.7125
## [543,] 133.75 133.6625 133.4750
## [544,] 144.95 136.3375 133.6625
## [545,] 160.25 143.3000 136.3375
## [546,] 167.00 151.4875 143.3000
## [547,] 164.05 159.0625 151.4875
## [548,] 163.23 163.6325 159.0625
## [549,] 166.55 165.2075 163.6325
## [550,] 165.28 164.7775 165.2075
## [551,] 175.33 167.5975 164.7775
## [552,] 167.80 168.7400 167.5975
## [553,] 176.25 171.1650 168.7400
## [554,] 186.28 176.4150 171.1650
## [555,] 179.68 177.5025 176.4150
## [556,] 186.20 182.1025 177.5025
## [557,] 189.85 185.5025 182.1025
## [558,] 187.85 185.8950 185.5025
## [559,] 180.60 186.1250 185.8950
## [560,] 181.10 184.8500 186.1250
## [561,] 182.15 182.9250 184.8500
## [562,] 186.40 182.5625 182.9250
## [563,] 198.85 187.1250 182.5625
## [564,] 203.45 192.7125 187.1250
## [565,] 205.15 198.4625 192.7125
## [566,] 200.45 201.9750 198.4625
## [567,] 209.85 204.7250 201.9750
## [568,] 202.15 204.4000 204.7250
## [569,] 204.50 204.2375 204.4000
## [570,] 208.98 206.3700 204.2375
## [571,] 225.25 210.2200 206.3700
## [572,] 236.67 218.8500 210.2200
## [573,] 240.50 227.8500 218.8500
## [574,] 230.70 233.2800 227.8500
## [575,] 234.60 235.6175 233.2800
## [576,] 240.32 236.5300 235.6175
## [577,] 245.00 237.6550 236.5300
## [578,] 249.30 242.3050 237.6550
## [579,] 251.95 246.6425 242.3050
## [580,] 271.65 254.4750 246.6425
## [581,] 267.70 260.1500 254.4750
## [582,] 272.90 266.0500 260.1500
## [583,] 273.70 271.4875 266.0500
## [584,] 276.80 272.7750 271.4875
## [585,] 268.60 273.0000 272.7750
## [586,] 259.90 269.7500 273.0000
## [587,] 274.95 270.0625 269.7500
## [588,] 288.10 272.8875 270.0625
## [589,] 294.25 279.3000 272.8875
## [590,] 299.35 289.1625 279.3000
## [591,] 287.05 292.1875 289.1625
## [592,] 269.30 287.4875 292.1875
## [593,] 259.15 278.7125 287.4875
## [594,] 263.70 269.8000 278.7125
## [595,] 270.95 265.7750 269.8000
## [596,] 264.95 264.6875 265.7750
## [597,] 249.55 262.2875 264.6875
## [598,] 249.00 258.6125 262.2875
## [599,] 263.45 256.7375 258.6125
## [600,] 263.15 256.2875 256.7375
## [601,] 252.55 257.0375 256.2875
## [602,] 241.50 255.1625 257.0375
## [603,] 239.55 249.1875 255.1625
## [604,] 238.00 242.9000 249.1875
## [605,] 240.35 239.8500 242.9000
## [606,] 266.15 246.0125 239.8500
## [607,] 278.90 255.8500 246.0125
## [608,] 289.20 268.6500 255.8500
## [609,] 271.25 276.3750 268.6500
## [610,] 263.00 275.5875 276.3750
## [611,] 231.45 263.7250 275.5875
## [612,] 228.90 248.6500 263.7250
## [613,] 224.35 236.9250 248.6500
## [614,] 239.55 231.0625 236.9250
## [615,] 244.85 234.4125 231.0625
## [616,] 235.15 235.9750 234.4125
## [617,] 230.20 237.4375 235.9750
## [618,] 233.95 236.0375 237.4375
## [619,] 234.20 233.3750 236.0375
## [620,] 229.60 231.9875 233.3750
## [621,] 227.15 231.2250 231.9875
## [622,] 227.05 229.5000 231.2250
## [623,] 210.95 223.6875 229.5000
## [624,] 217.88 220.7575 223.6875
## [625,] 226.85 220.6825 220.7575
## [626,] 221.75 219.3575 220.6825
## [627,] 225.25 222.9325 219.3575
## [628,] 225.40 224.8125 222.9325
## [629,] 217.35 222.4375 224.8125
## [630,] 215.95 220.9875 222.4375
## [631,] 215.30 218.5000 220.9875
## [632,] 200.05 212.1625 218.5000
## [633,] 203.25 208.6375 212.1625
## [634,] 201.65 205.0625 208.6375
## [635,] 185.60 197.6375 205.0625
## [636,] 181.35 192.9625 197.6375
## [637,] 178.75 186.8375 192.9625
## [638,] 182.45 182.0375 186.8375
## [639,] 183.00 181.3875 182.0375
## [640,] 179.20 180.8500 181.3875
## [641,] 177.70 180.5875 180.8500
## [642,] 175.00 178.7250 180.5875
## [643,] 173.50 176.3500 178.7250
## [644,] 176.55 175.6875 176.3500
## [645,] 177.70 175.6875 175.6875
## [646,] 167.80 173.8875 175.6875
## [647,] 157.50 169.8875 173.8875
## [648,] 155.60 164.6500 169.8875
## [649,] 150.05 157.7375 164.6500
## [650,] 155.15 154.5750 157.7375
## [651,] 170.85 157.9125 154.5750
## [652,] 175.90 162.9875 157.9125
## [653,] 184.45 171.5875 162.9875
## [654,] 186.95 179.5375 171.5875
## [655,] 173.70 180.2500 179.5375
## [656,] 173.80 179.7250 180.2500
## [657,] 166.25 175.1750 179.7250
## [658,] 160.30 168.5125 175.1750
## [659,] 163.15 165.8750 168.5125
## [660,] 164.55 163.5625 165.8750
## [661,] 162.70 162.6750 163.5625
## [662,] 180.80 167.8000 162.6750
## [663,] 173.30 170.3375 167.8000
## [664,] 173.50 172.5750 170.3375
## [665,] 167.77 173.8425 172.5750
## [666,] 162.35 169.2300 173.8425
## [667,] 161.65 166.3175 169.2300
## [668,] 157.75 162.3800 166.3175
## [669,] 154.70 159.1125 162.3800
## [670,] 149.90 156.0000 159.1125
## [671,] 147.30 152.4125 156.0000
## [672,] 142.15 148.5125 152.4125
## [673,] 149.88 147.3075 148.5125
## [674,] 142.10 145.3575 147.3075
## [675,] 137.40 142.8825 145.3575
## [676,] 146.60 143.9950 142.8825
## [677,] 146.85 143.2375 143.9950
## [678,] 147.35 144.5500 143.2375
## [679,] 153.35 148.5375 144.5500
## [680,] 155.68 150.8075 148.5375
## [681,] 148.30 151.1700 150.8075
## [682,] 147.95 151.3200 151.1700
## [683,] 141.05 148.2450 151.3200
## [684,] 136.95 143.5625 148.2450
## [685,] 143.10 142.2625 143.5625
## [686,] 142.90 141.0000 142.2625
## [687,] 143.35 141.5750 141.0000
## [688,] 136.50 141.4625 141.5750
## [689,] 135.30 139.5125 141.4625
## [690,] 137.15 138.0750 139.5125
## [691,] 140.15 137.2750 138.0750
## [692,] 135.25 136.9625 137.2750
## [693,] 141.65 138.5500 136.9625
## [694,] 133.90 137.7375 138.5500
## [695,] 140.30 137.7750 137.7375
## [696,] 143.80 139.9125 137.7750
## [697,] 135.60 138.4000 139.9125
## [698,] 127.25 136.7375 138.4000
## [699,] 127.05 133.4250 136.7375
## [700,] 126.95 129.2125 133.4250
## [701,] 122.25 125.8750 129.2125
## [702,] 118.70 123.7375 125.8750
## [703,] 120.00 121.9750 123.7375
## [704,] 120.95 120.4750 121.9750
## [705,] 119.15 119.7000 120.4750
## [706,] 122.60 120.6750 119.7000
## [707,] 122.25 121.2375 120.6750
## [708,] 118.25 120.5625 121.2375
## [709,] 122.90 121.5000 120.5625
## [710,] 120.50 120.9750 121.5000
## [711,] 113.05 118.6750 120.9750
## [712,] 112.10 117.1375 118.6750
## [713,] 113.95 114.9000 117.1375
## [714,] 115.55 113.6625 114.9000
## [715,] 114.65 114.0625 113.6625
## [716,] 113.70 114.4625 114.0625
## [717,] 114.40 114.5750 114.4625
## [718,] 116.70 114.8625 114.5750
## [719,] 114.65 114.8625 114.8625
## [720,] 109.10 113.7125 114.8625
## [721,] 105.55 111.5000 113.7125
## [722,] 104.05 108.3375 111.5000
## [723,] 105.75 106.1125 108.3375
## [724,] 107.28 105.6575 106.1125
## [725,] 110.25 106.8325 105.6575
## [726,] 105.80 107.2700 106.8325
## [727,] 114.50 109.4575 107.2700
## [728,] 115.30 111.4625 109.4575
## [729,] 116.35 112.9875 111.4625
## [730,] 116.35 115.6250 112.9875
## [731,] 120.65 117.1625 115.6250
## [732,] 117.15 117.6250 117.1625
## [733,] 114.40 117.1375 117.6250
## [734,] 125.20 119.3500 117.1375
## [735,] 135.70 123.1125 119.3500
## [736,] 139.90 128.8000 123.1125
## [737,] 168.55 142.3375 128.8000
## [738,] 179.80 155.9875 142.3375
## [739,] 196.05 171.0750 155.9875
## [740,] 197.85 185.5625 171.0750
## [741,] 171.15 186.2125 185.5625
## [742,] 180.60 186.4125 186.2125
## [743,] 185.00 183.6500 186.4125
## [744,] 201.20 184.4875 183.6500
## [745,] 201.20 192.0000 184.4875
## [746,] 204.75 198.0375 192.0000
## [747,] 200.60 201.9375 198.0375
## [748,] 184.85 197.8500 201.9375
## [749,] 182.50 193.1750 197.8500
## [750,] 181.90 187.4625 193.1750
## [751,] 177.50 181.6875 187.4625
## [752,] 172.10 178.5000 181.6875
## [753,] 173.70 176.3000 178.5000
## [754,] 173.25 174.1375 176.3000
## [755,] 170.45 172.3750 174.1375
## [756,] 172.02 172.3550 172.3750
## [757,] 158.95 168.6675 172.3550
## [758,] 170.70 168.0300 168.6675
## [759,] 179.15 170.2050 168.0300
## [760,] 192.13 175.2325 170.2050
## [761,] 180.85 180.7075 175.2325
## [762,] 188.75 185.2200 180.7075
## [763,] 181.60 185.8325 185.2200
## [764,] 195.75 186.7375 185.8325
## [765,] 192.85 189.7375 186.7375
## [766,] 179.65 187.4625 189.7375
## [767,] 178.00 186.5625 187.4625
## [768,] 186.05 184.1375 186.5625
## [769,] 206.50 187.5500 184.1375
## [770,] 220.40 197.7375 187.5500
## [771,] 210.65 205.9000 197.7375
## [772,] 191.50 207.2625 205.9000
## [773,] 188.00 202.6375 207.2625
## [774,] 182.40 193.1375 202.6375
## [775,] 192.00 188.4750 193.1375
## [776,] 189.65 188.0125 188.4750
## [777,] 187.48 187.8825 188.0125
## [778,] 181.10 187.5575 187.8825
## [779,] 174.13 183.0900 187.5575
## [780,] 174.88 179.3975 183.0900
## [781,] 169.07 174.7950 179.3975
## [782,] 161.05 169.7825 174.7950
## [783,] 180.05 171.2625 169.7825
## [784,] 171.00 170.2925 171.2625
## [785,] 162.45 168.6375 170.2925
## [786,] 161.90 168.8500 168.6375
## [787,] 166.85 165.5500 168.8500
## [788,] 163.20 163.6000 165.5500
## [789,] 148.65 160.1500 163.6000
## [790,] 136.75 153.8625 160.1500
## [791,] 136.50 146.2750 153.8625
## [792,] 126.45 137.0875 146.2750
## [793,] 143.35 135.7625 137.0875
## [794,] 138.20 136.1250 135.7625
## [795,] 140.90 137.2250 136.1250
## [796,] 135.10 139.3875 137.2250
## [797,] 138.70 138.2250 139.3875
## [798,] 141.15 138.9625 138.2250
## [799,] 133.45 137.1000 138.9625
## [800,] 132.90 136.5500 137.1000
## [801,] 137.20 136.1750 136.5500
## [802,] 126.95 132.6250 136.1750
## [803,] 126.15 130.8000 132.6250
## [804,] 135.10 131.3500 130.8000
## [805,] 132.05 130.0625 131.3500
## [806,] 127.15 130.1125 130.0625
## [807,] 131.70 131.5000 130.1125
## [808,] 125.60 129.1250 131.5000
## [809,] 122.95 126.8500 129.1250
## [810,] 127.00 126.8125 126.8500
## [811,] 122.25 124.4500 126.8125
## [812,] 125.25 124.3625 124.4500
## [813,] 127.80 125.5750 124.3625
## [814,] 137.50 128.2000 125.5750
## [815,] 121.90 128.1125 128.2000
## [816,] 120.45 126.9125 128.1125
## [817,] 115.85 123.9250 126.9125
## [818,] 113.35 117.8875 123.9250
## [819,] 113.35 115.7500 117.8875
## [820,] 122.70 116.3125 115.7500
## [821,] 124.30 118.4250 116.3125
## [822,] 131.60 122.9875 118.4250
## [823,] 125.85 126.1125 122.9875
## [824,] 118.45 125.0500 126.1125
## [825,] 120.95 124.2125 125.0500
## [826,] 117.75 120.7500 124.2125
## [827,] 112.15 117.3250 120.7500
## [828,] 121.90 118.1875 117.3250
## [829,] 121.00 118.2000 118.1875
## [830,] 124.00 119.7625 118.2000
## [831,] 118.10 121.2500 119.7625
## [832,] 118.45 120.3875 121.2500
## [833,] 119.70 120.0625 120.3875
## [834,] 126.70 120.7375 120.0625
## [835,] 119.00 120.9625 120.7375
## [836,] 114.90 120.0750 120.9625
## [837,] 116.00 119.1500 120.0750
## [838,] 116.35 116.5625 119.1500
## [839,] 120.40 116.9125 116.5625
## [840,] 115.55 117.0750 116.9125
## [841,] 115.75 117.0125 117.0750
## [842,] 113.00 116.1750 117.0125
## [843,] 118.80 115.7750 116.1750
## [844,] 124.40 117.9875 115.7750
## [845,] 133.85 122.5125 117.9875
## [846,] 127.55 126.1500 122.5125
## [847,] 127.25 128.2625 126.1500
## [848,] 120.45 127.2750 128.2625
## [849,] 122.95 124.5500 127.2750
## [850,] 122.75 123.3500 124.5500
## [851,] 120.85 121.7500 123.3500
## [852,] 123.45 122.5000 121.7500
## [853,] 128.80 123.9625 122.5000
## [854,] 124.70 124.4500 123.9625
## [855,] 121.30 124.5625 124.4500
## [856,] 127.10 125.4750 124.5625
## [857,] 136.95 127.5125 125.4750
## [858,] 140.75 131.5250 127.5125
## [859,] 134.35 134.7875 131.5250
## [860,] 144.85 139.2250 134.7875
## [861,] 142.75 140.6750 139.2250
## [862,] 145.70 141.9125 140.6750
## [863,] 141.90 143.8000 141.9125
## [864,] 146.20 144.1375 143.8000
## [865,] 142.50 144.0750 144.1375
## [866,] 136.85 141.8625 144.0750
## [867,] 138.80 141.0875 141.8625
## [868,] 143.90 140.5125 141.0875
## [869,] 150.10 142.4125 140.5125
## [870,] 149.95 145.6875 142.4125
## [871,] 147.10 147.7625 145.6875
## [872,] 151.40 149.6375 147.7625
## [873,] 151.55 150.0000 149.6375
## [874,] 148.00 149.5125 150.0000
## [875,] 155.40 151.5875 149.5125
## [876,] 156.10 152.7625 151.5875
## [877,] 165.50 156.2500 152.7625
## [878,] 171.35 162.0875 156.2500
## [879,] 159.45 163.1000 162.0875
## [880,] 157.85 163.5375 163.1000
## [881,] 152.30 160.2375 163.5375
## [882,] 141.20 152.7000 160.2375
## [883,] 135.55 146.7250 152.7000
## [884,] 138.20 141.8125 146.7250
## [885,] 136.15 137.7750 141.8125
## [886,] 137.05 136.7375 137.7750
## [887,] 142.85 138.5625 136.7375
## [888,] 149.30 141.3375 138.5625
## [889,] 153.20 145.6000 141.3375
## [890,] 152.40 149.4375 145.6000
## [891,] 146.25 150.2875 149.4375
## [892,] 145.75 149.4000 150.2875
## [893,] 147.80 148.0500 149.4000
## [894,] 144.40 146.0500 148.0500
## [895,] 141.25 144.8000 146.0500
## [896,] 139.65 143.2750 144.8000
## [897,] 140.80 141.5250 143.2750
## [898,] 137.60 139.8250 141.5250
## [899,] 139.30 139.3375 139.8250
## [900,] 140.05 139.4375 139.3375
## [901,] 138.90 138.9625 139.4375
## [902,] 129.85 137.0250 138.9625
## [903,] 131.05 134.9625 137.0250
## [904,] 133.10 133.2250 134.9625
## [905,] 132.60 131.6500 133.2250
## [906,] 132.10 132.2125 131.6500
## [907,] 131.20 132.2500 132.2125
## [908,] 125.55 130.3625 132.2500
## [909,] 126.55 128.8500 130.3625
## [910,] 123.55 126.7125 128.8500
## [911,] 119.95 123.9000 126.7125
## [912,] 124.05 123.5250 123.9000
## [913,] 126.55 123.5250 123.5250
## [914,] 131.70 125.5625 123.5250
## [915,] 136.55 129.7125 125.5625
## [916,] 137.85 133.1625 129.7125
## [917,] 140.15 136.5625 133.1625
## [918,] 140.30 138.7125 136.5625
## [919,] 128.05 136.5875 138.7125
## [920,] 130.20 134.6750 136.5875
## [921,] 127.75 131.5750 134.6750
## [922,] 129.40 128.8500 131.5750
## [923,] 140.00 131.8375 128.8500
## [924,] 134.45 132.9000 131.8375
## [925,] 128.05 132.9750 132.9000
## [926,] 130.00 133.1250 132.9750
## [927,] 126.45 129.7375 133.1250
## [928,] 125.25 127.4375 129.7375
## [929,] 126.60 127.0750 127.4375
## [930,] 123.95 125.5625 127.0750
## [931,] 127.55 125.8375 125.5625
## [932,] 123.80 125.4750 125.8375
## [933,] 124.80 125.0250 125.4750
## [934,] 127.55 125.9250 125.0250
## [935,] 120.60 124.1875 125.9250
## [936,] 116.95 122.4750 124.1875
## [937,] 120.40 121.3750 122.4750
## [938,] 126.20 121.0375 121.3750
## [939,] 128.45 123.0000 121.0375
## [940,] 122.25 124.3250 123.0000
## [941,] 121.25 124.5375 124.3250
## [942,] 125.15 124.2750 124.5375
## [943,] 120.40 122.2625 124.2750
## [944,] 121.85 122.1625 122.2625
## [945,] 117.95 121.3375 122.1625
## [946,] 119.45 119.9125 121.3375
## [947,] NA NA 119.9125
## [948,] NA NA 119.9125
## [949,] NA NA 119.9125
## [950,] NA NA 119.9125
## [951,] NA NA 119.9125
## [952,] NA NA 119.9125
## [953,] NA NA 119.9125
## [954,] NA NA 119.9125
## [955,] NA NA 119.9125
## [956,] NA NA 119.9125
## [957,] NA NA 119.9125
## [958,] NA NA 119.9125
## [959,] NA NA 119.9125
## [960,] NA NA 119.9125
## [961,] NA NA 119.9125
## [962,] NA NA 119.9125
## [963,] NA NA 119.9125
## [964,] NA NA 119.9125
## [965,] NA NA 119.9125
## [966,] NA NA 119.9125
## [967,] NA NA 119.9125
## [968,] NA NA 119.9125
## [969,] NA NA 119.9125
## [970,] NA NA 119.9125
## [971,] NA NA 119.9125
## [972,] NA NA 119.9125
## [973,] NA NA 119.9125
## [974,] NA NA 119.9125
## [975,] NA NA 119.9125
## [976,] NA NA 119.9125
## [977,] NA NA 119.9125
## [978,] NA NA 119.9125
## [979,] NA NA 119.9125
## [980,] NA NA 119.9125
## [981,] NA NA 119.9125
## [982,] NA NA 119.9125
## [983,] NA NA 119.9125
## [984,] NA NA 119.9125
## [985,] NA NA 119.9125
## [986,] NA NA 119.9125
## [987,] NA NA 119.9125
## [988,] NA NA 119.9125
## [989,] NA NA 119.9125
## [990,] NA NA 119.9125
## [991,] NA NA 119.9125
## [992,] NA NA 119.9125
## [993,] NA NA 119.9125
## [994,] NA NA 119.9125
## [995,] NA NA 119.9125
## [996,] NA NA 119.9125
## [997,] NA NA 119.9125
## [998,] NA NA 119.9125
## [999,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1000,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1001,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1002,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1003,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1004,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1005,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1006,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1007,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1008,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1009,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1010,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1011,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1012,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1013,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1014,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1015,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1016,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1017,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1018,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1019,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1020,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1021,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1022,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1023,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1024,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1025,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1026,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1027,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1028,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1029,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1030,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1031,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1032,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1033,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1034,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1035,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1036,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1037,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1038,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1039,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1040,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1041,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1042,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1043,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1044,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1045,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1046,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1047,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1048,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1049,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1050,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1051,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1052,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1053,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1054,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1055,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1056,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1057,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1058,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1059,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1060,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1061,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1062,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1063,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1064,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1065,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1066,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1067,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1068,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1069,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1070,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1071,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1072,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1073,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1074,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1075,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1076,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1077,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1078,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1079,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1080,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1081,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1082,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1083,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1084,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1085,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1086,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1087,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1088,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1089,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1090,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1091,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1092,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1093,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1094,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1095,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1096,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1097,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1098,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1099,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1100,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1101,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1102,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1103,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1104,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1105,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1106,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1107,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1108,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1109,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1110,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1111,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1112,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1113,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1114,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1115,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1116,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1117,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1118,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1119,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1120,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1121,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1122,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1123,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1124,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1125,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1126,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1127,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1128,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1129,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1130,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1131,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1132,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1133,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1134,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1135,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1136,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1137,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1138,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1139,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1140,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1141,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1142,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1143,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1144,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1145,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1146,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1147,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1148,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1149,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1150,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1151,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1152,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1153,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1154,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1155,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1156,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1157,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1158,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1159,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1160,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1161,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1162,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1163,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1164,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1165,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1166,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1167,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1168,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1169,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1170,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1171,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1172,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1173,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1174,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1175,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1176,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1177,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1178,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1179,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1180,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1181,] NA NA 119.9125
## [1182,] NA NA 119.9125Adapun plot data deret waktu dari hasil peramalan yang dilakukan adalah sebagai berikut.
ts.plot(data.ts, xlab="Date", ylab="Price", main= "SMA N=4 Price")
points(data.ts)
lines(data.gab[,2],col="green",lwd=2)
lines(data.gab[,3],col="red",lwd=2)
legend("topleft",c("data aktual","data pemulusan","data peramalan"), lty=8, col=c("black","green","red"), cex=0.5)
Selanjutnya perhitungan akurasi dilakukan dengan ukuran akurasi Sum
Squares Error (SSE), Mean Square Error (MSE) dan Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE). Perhitungan akurasi dilakukan baik pada data
latih maupun pada data uji.
#Menghitung nilai keakuratan data latih
error_train.sma = train_ma.ts-data.ramal[1:length(train_ma.ts)]
SSE_train.sma = sum(error_train.sma[5:length(train_ma.ts)]^2)
MSE_train.sma = mean(error_train.sma[5:length(train_ma.ts)]^2)
MAPE_train.sma = mean(abs((error_train.sma[5:length(train_ma.ts)]/train_ma.ts[5:length(train_ma.ts)])*2360))
akurasi_train.sma <- matrix(c(SSE_train.sma, MSE_train.sma, MAPE_train.sma))
row.names(akurasi_train.sma)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasi_train.sma) <- c("Akurasi m = 4")
akurasi_train.sma## Akurasi m = 4
## SSE 61535.84097
## MSE 65.32467
## MAPE 108.58797Dalam hal ini nilai MAPE data latih pada metode pemulusan SMA tidak kurang dari 2%, nilai ini dapat dikategorikan sebagai nilai akurasi yang kurang baik. Selanjutnya dilakukan perhitungan nilai MAPE data uji pada metde pemulusan SMA.
#Menghitung nilai keakuratan data uji
error_test.sma = test_ma.ts-data.gab[947:1182,3]
SSE_test.sma = sum(error_test.sma^2)
MSE_test.sma = mean(error_test.sma^2)
MAPE_test.sma = mean(abs((error_test.sma/test_ma.ts*2360)))
akurasi_test.sma <- matrix(c(SSE_test.sma, MSE_test.sma, MAPE_test.sma))
row.names(akurasi_test.sma)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasi_test.sma) <- c("Akurasi m = 4")
akurasi_test.sma## Akurasi m = 4
## SSE 646146.8255
## MSE 2737.9103
## MAPE 497.9267Perhitungan akurasi menggunakan data latih menghasilkan nilai MAPE yang tidak kurang dari 236% sehingga nilai akurasi ini dapat dikategorikan sebagai kurang baik.
Double Moving Average (DMA)
Metode pemulusan Double Moving Average (DMA) pada dasarnya mirip dengan SMA. Namun demikian, metode ini lebih cocok digunakan untuk pola data trend. Proses pemulusan dengan rata rata dalam metode ini dilakukan sebanyak 2 kali.
dma <- SMA(data.sma, n = 4)
At <- 2*data.sma - dma
Bt <- 2/(4-1)*(data.sma - dma)
data.dma<- At+Bt
data.ramal2<- c(NA, data.dma)
t = 1:236
f = c()
for (i in t) {
f[i] = At[length(At)] + Bt[length(Bt)]*(i)
}
data.gab2 <- cbind(aktual = c(train_ma.ts,rep(NA,236)), pemulusan1 = c(data.sma,rep(NA,236)),pemulusan2 = c(data.dma, rep(NA,)),At = c(At, rep(NA,236)), Bt = c(Bt,rep(NA,236)),ramalan = c(data.ramal2, f[-1]))## Warning in cbind(aktual = c(train_ma.ts, rep(NA, 236)), pemulusan1 =
## c(data.sma, : number of rows of result is not a multiple of vector length (arg
## 3)data.gab2## aktual pemulusan1 pemulusan2 At Bt ramalan
## [1,] 114.15 NA NA NA NA NA
## [2,] 112.55 NA NA NA NA NA
## [3,] 111.20 NA NA NA NA NA
## [4,] 114.70 113.1500 NA NA NA NA
## [5,] 112.90 112.8375 NA NA NA NA
## [6,] 108.80 111.9000 NA NA NA NA
## [7,] 104.30 110.1750 107.10729 108.33437 -1.227083333 NA
## [8,] 98.80 106.2000 99.40312 102.12187 -2.718750000 107.10729167
## [9,] 104.35 104.0625 97.35937 100.04062 -2.681250000 99.40312500
## [10,] 106.10 103.3875 99.10625 100.81875 -1.712500000 97.35937500
## [11,] 106.10 103.8375 102.94687 103.30312 -0.356250000 99.10625000
## [12,] 103.15 104.9250 106.37812 105.79687 0.581250000 102.94687500
## [13,] 103.70 104.7625 105.65312 105.29687 0.356250000 106.37812500
## [14,] 99.60 103.1375 101.42396 102.10937 -0.685416667 105.65312500
## [15,] 92.65 99.7750 94.15000 96.40000 -2.250000000 101.42395833
## [16,] 97.75 98.4250 93.25833 95.32500 -2.066666667 94.15000000
## [17,] 95.30 96.3250 91.17396 93.23437 -2.060416667 93.25833333
## [18,] 96.85 95.6375 92.46562 93.73437 -1.268750000 91.17395833
## [19,] 91.80 95.4250 93.71146 94.39687 -0.685416667 92.46562500
## [20,] 97.95 95.4750 95.07396 95.23437 -0.160416667 93.71145833
## [21,] 99.20 96.4500 97.62187 97.15312 0.468750000 95.07395833
## [22,] 95.55 96.1250 96.55208 96.38125 0.170833333 97.62187500
## [23,] 91.85 96.1375 96.28854 96.22812 0.060416667 96.55208333
## [24,] 87.25 93.4625 89.99375 91.38125 -1.387500000 96.28854167
## [25,] 87.05 90.4250 84.40417 86.81250 -2.408333333 89.99375000
## [26,] 84.85 87.7500 80.76042 83.55625 -2.795833333 84.40416667
## [27,] 80.80 84.9875 78.03958 80.81875 -2.779166667 80.76041667
## [28,] 89.15 85.4625 82.63958 83.76875 -1.129166667 78.03958333
## [29,] 96.65 87.8625 90.10729 89.20937 0.897916667 82.63958333
## [30,] 87.40 88.5000 91.49479 90.29687 1.197916667 90.10729167
## [31,] 85.60 89.7000 92.73125 91.51875 1.212500000 91.49479167
## [32,] 80.65 87.5750 86.18437 86.74062 -0.556250000 92.73125000
## [33,] 78.40 83.0125 76.03854 78.82812 -2.789583333 86.18437500
## [34,] 77.75 80.6000 72.89687 75.97812 -3.081250000 76.03854167
## [35,] 75.00 77.9500 70.72604 73.61562 -2.889583333 72.89687500
## [36,] 77.40 77.1375 72.90833 74.60000 -1.691666667 70.72604167
## [37,] 76.25 76.6000 74.14687 75.12812 -0.981250000 72.90833333
## [38,] 78.00 76.6625 75.95417 76.23750 -0.283333333 74.14687500
## [39,] 83.00 78.6625 80.99062 80.05937 0.931250000 75.95416667
## [40,] 79.45 79.1750 81.50833 80.57500 0.933333333 80.99062500
## [41,] 81.05 80.3750 83.13542 82.03125 1.104166667 81.50833333
## [42,] 84.15 81.9125 85.04792 83.79375 1.254166667 83.13541667
## [43,] 75.60 80.0625 79.53125 79.74375 -0.212500000 85.04791667
## [44,] 73.60 78.6000 75.87083 76.96250 -1.091666667 79.53125000
## [45,] 74.15 76.8750 72.72917 74.38750 -1.658333333 75.87083333
## [46,] 68.55 72.9750 66.05312 68.82187 -2.768750000 72.72916667
## [47,] 68.30 71.1500 64.90000 67.40000 -2.500000000 66.05312500
## [48,] 67.00 69.5000 64.29167 66.37500 -2.083333333 64.90000000
## [49,] 63.65 66.8750 61.45833 63.62500 -2.166666667 64.29166667
## [50,] 62.90 65.4625 60.82187 62.67812 -1.856250000 61.45833333
## [51,] 65.40 64.7375 61.56042 62.83125 -1.270833333 60.82187500
## [52,] 65.55 64.3750 62.72917 63.38750 -0.658333333 61.56041667
## [53,] 64.35 64.5500 64.16458 64.31875 -0.154166667 62.72916667
## [54,] 65.00 65.0750 65.72604 65.46562 0.260416667 64.16458333
## [55,] 68.30 65.8000 67.21667 66.65000 0.566666667 65.72604167
## [56,] 67.10 66.1875 67.49479 66.97187 0.522916667 67.21666667
## [57,] 63.20 65.9000 66.16562 66.05937 0.106250000 67.49479167
## [58,] 62.65 65.3125 64.50000 64.82500 -0.325000000 66.16562500
## [59,] 59.80 63.1875 59.92187 61.22812 -1.306250000 64.50000000
## [60,] 64.95 62.6500 59.96250 61.03750 -1.075000000 59.92187500
## [61,] 63.30 62.6750 61.37292 61.89375 -0.520833333 59.96250000
## [62,] 61.70 62.4375 61.93750 62.13750 -0.200000000 61.37291667
## [63,] 59.00 62.2375 61.80000 61.97500 -0.175000000 61.93750000
## [64,] 60.10 61.0250 59.24375 59.95625 -0.712500000 61.80000000
## [65,] 60.30 60.2750 58.24375 59.05625 -0.812500000 59.24375000
## [66,] 58.10 59.3750 57.11979 58.02187 -0.902083333 58.24375000
## [67,] 57.60 59.0250 57.52500 58.12500 -0.600000000 57.11979167
## [68,] 57.15 58.2875 56.69896 57.33437 -0.635416667 57.52500000
## [69,] 60.95 58.4500 57.89271 58.11562 -0.222916667 56.69895833
## [70,] 63.65 59.8375 61.40000 60.77500 0.625000000 57.89270833
## [71,] 64.95 61.6750 65.19583 63.78750 1.408333333 61.40000000
## [72,] 63.80 63.3375 67.52500 65.85000 1.675000000 65.19583333
## [73,] 59.90 63.0750 64.89792 64.16875 0.729166667 67.52500000
## [74,] 57.90 61.6375 60.31458 60.84375 -0.529166667 64.89791667
## [75,] 58.15 59.9375 56.50521 57.87812 -1.372916667 60.31458333
## [76,] 59.40 58.8375 55.44687 56.80312 -1.356250000 56.50520833
## [77,] 55.90 57.8375 54.96250 56.11250 -1.150000000 55.44687500
## [78,] 56.10 57.3875 55.53333 56.27500 -0.741666667 54.96250000
## [79,] 53.85 56.3125 54.17708 55.03125 -0.854166667 55.53333333
## [80,] 52.05 54.4750 51.09479 52.44687 -1.352083333 54.17708333
## [81,] 53.75 53.9375 51.28646 52.34687 -1.060416667 51.09479167
## [82,] 51.30 52.7375 50.02396 51.10937 -1.085416667 51.28645833
## [83,] 50.40 51.8750 49.57292 50.49375 -0.920833333 50.02395833
## [84,] 48.40 50.9625 48.60312 49.54687 -0.943750000 49.57291667
## [85,] 54.35 51.1125 50.18021 50.55312 -0.372916667 48.60312500
## [86,] 50.95 51.0250 50.66042 50.80625 -0.145833333 50.18020833
## [87,] 50.50 51.0500 51.07083 51.06250 0.008333333 50.66041667
## [88,] 48.50 51.0750 51.09062 51.08437 0.006250000 51.07083333
## [89,] 49.05 49.7500 48.12500 48.77500 -0.650000000 51.09062500
## [90,] 48.30 49.0875 47.16562 47.93437 -0.768750000 48.12500000
## [91,] 46.65 48.1250 45.81771 46.74062 -0.922916667 47.16562500
## [92,] 44.70 47.1750 44.90937 45.81562 -0.906250000 45.81770833
## [93,] 43.85 45.8750 43.05729 44.18437 -1.127083333 44.90937500
## [94,] 43.40 44.6500 41.63958 42.84375 -1.204166667 43.05729167
## [95,] 45.40 44.3375 42.38437 43.16562 -0.781250000 41.63958333
## [96,] 44.70 44.3375 43.56667 43.87500 -0.308333333 42.38437500
## [97,] 48.65 45.5375 46.90729 46.35937 0.547916667 43.56666667
## [98,] 46.40 46.2875 48.22500 47.45000 0.775000000 46.90729167
## [99,] 42.60 45.5875 45.83750 45.73750 0.100000000 48.22500000
## [100,] 43.00 45.1625 44.36042 44.68125 -0.320833333 45.83750000
## [101,] 43.80 43.9500 41.78854 42.65312 -0.864583333 44.36041667
## [102,] 46.65 44.0125 42.90312 43.34687 -0.443750000 41.78854167
## [103,] 46.20 44.9125 45.58437 45.31562 0.268750000 42.90312500
## [104,] 48.55 46.3000 48.81042 47.80625 1.004166667 45.58437500
## [105,] 49.55 47.7375 51.06562 49.73437 1.331250000 48.81041667
## [106,] 47.40 47.9250 49.93542 49.13125 0.804166667 51.06562500
## [107,] 45.90 47.8500 48.51146 48.24687 0.264583333 49.93541667
## [108,] 45.45 47.0750 46.12187 46.50312 -0.381250000 48.51145833
## [109,] 44.55 45.8250 43.58542 44.48125 -0.895833333 46.12187500
## [110,] 44.10 45.0000 42.60417 43.56250 -0.958333333 43.58541667
## [111,] 48.00 45.5250 44.97292 45.19375 -0.220833333 42.60416667
## [112,] 45.85 45.6250 45.84375 45.75625 0.087500000 44.97291667
## [113,] 48.45 46.6000 48.12083 47.51250 0.608333333 45.84375000
## [114,] 54.75 49.2625 53.44479 51.77187 1.672916667 48.12083333
## [115,] 54.30 50.8375 55.43125 53.59375 1.837500000 53.44479167
## [116,] 57.20 53.6750 59.64375 57.25625 2.387500000 55.43125000
## [117,] 55.00 55.3125 60.38021 58.35312 2.027083333 59.64375000
## [118,] 53.20 54.9250 56.98750 56.16250 0.825000000 60.38020833
## [119,] 53.05 54.6125 54.58125 54.59375 -0.012500000 56.98750000
## [120,] 49.70 52.7375 49.97187 51.07812 -1.106250000 54.58125000
## [121,] 49.00 51.2375 47.66979 49.09687 -1.427083333 49.97187500
## [122,] 47.50 49.8125 46.00000 47.52500 -1.525000000 47.66979167
## [123,] 48.40 48.6500 45.38437 46.69062 -1.306250000 46.00000000
## [124,] 51.40 49.0750 48.04375 48.45625 -0.412500000 45.38437500
## [125,] 51.90 49.8000 50.57604 50.26562 0.310416667 48.04375000
## [126,] 49.15 50.2125 51.50937 50.99062 0.518750000 50.57604167
## [127,] 46.45 49.7250 49.76146 49.74687 0.014583333 51.50937500
## [128,] 47.10 48.6500 47.07187 47.70312 -0.631250000 49.76145833
## [129,] 46.50 47.3000 44.51354 45.62812 -1.114583333 47.07187500
## [130,] 48.15 47.0500 45.16458 45.91875 -0.754166667 44.51354167
## [131,] 49.85 47.9000 48.19167 48.07500 0.116666667 45.16458333
## [132,] 47.35 47.9625 48.64479 48.37187 0.272916667 48.19166667
## [133,] 48.40 48.4375 49.43750 49.03750 0.400000000 48.64479167
## [134,] 48.10 48.4250 48.83125 48.66875 0.162500000 49.43750000
## [135,] 47.55 47.8500 47.31875 47.53125 -0.212500000 48.83125000
## [136,] 46.90 47.7375 47.11250 47.36250 -0.250000000 47.31875000
## [137,] 49.20 47.9375 47.85417 47.88750 -0.033333333 47.11250000
## [138,] 51.50 48.7875 49.96979 49.49687 0.472916667 47.85416667
## [139,] 55.50 50.7750 54.05104 52.74062 1.310416667 49.96979167
## [140,] 59.80 54.0000 60.04167 57.62500 2.416666667 54.05104167
## [141,] 56.05 55.7125 61.36875 59.10625 2.262500000 60.04166667
## [142,] 55.65 56.7500 60.81771 59.19062 1.627083333 61.36875000
## [143,] 56.00 56.8750 58.60937 57.91562 0.693750000 60.81770833
## [144,] 57.35 56.2625 56.03333 56.12500 -0.091666667 58.60937500
## [145,] 62.60 57.9000 59.48854 58.85312 0.635416667 56.03333333
## [146,] 68.55 61.1250 66.26562 64.20937 2.056250000 59.48854167
## [147,] 64.00 63.1250 68.99479 66.64687 2.347916667 66.26562500
## [148,] 67.85 65.7500 72.04167 69.52500 2.516666667 68.99479167
## [149,] 66.40 66.7000 70.90833 69.22500 1.683333333 72.04166667
## [150,] 66.80 66.2625 67.60104 67.06562 0.535416667 70.90833333
## [151,] 66.60 66.9125 67.75625 67.41875 0.337500000 67.60104167
## [152,] 63.40 65.8000 64.76875 65.18125 -0.412500000 67.75625000
## [153,] 56.85 63.4125 59.77187 61.22812 -1.456250000 64.76875000
## [154,] 62.20 62.2625 58.37187 59.92812 -1.556250000 59.77187500
## [155,] 61.35 60.9500 57.35625 58.79375 -1.437500000 58.37187500
## [156,] 61.25 60.4125 58.16771 59.06562 -0.897916667 57.35625000
## [157,] 65.05 62.4625 64.03021 63.40312 0.627083333 58.16770833
## [158,] 66.25 63.4750 66.22500 65.12500 1.100000000 64.03020833
## [159,] 67.65 65.0500 68.71667 67.25000 1.466666667 66.22500000
## [160,] 65.30 66.0625 69.06250 67.86250 1.200000000 68.71666667
## [161,] 65.80 66.2500 67.98437 67.29062 0.693750000 69.06250000
## [162,] 62.65 65.3500 64.80312 65.02187 -0.218750000 67.98437500
## [163,] 61.60 63.8375 61.27500 62.30000 -1.025000000 64.80312500
## [164,] 56.85 61.7250 57.44896 59.15937 -1.710416667 61.27500000
## [165,] 58.65 59.9375 55.31250 57.16250 -1.850000000 57.44895833
## [166,] 57.70 58.7000 54.78333 56.35000 -1.566666667 55.31250000
## [167,] 61.30 58.6250 56.75521 57.50312 -0.747916667 54.78333333
## [168,] 58.25 58.9750 58.83437 58.89062 -0.056250000 56.75520833
## [169,] 60.80 59.5125 60.44479 60.07187 0.372916667 58.83437500
## [170,] 60.45 60.2000 61.65312 61.07187 0.581250000 60.44479167
## [171,] 62.45 60.4875 61.64375 61.18125 0.462500000 61.65312500
## [172,] 63.75 61.8625 64.10729 63.20937 0.897916667 61.64375000
## [173,] 67.00 63.4125 66.61562 65.33437 1.281250000 64.10729167
## [174,] 67.70 65.2250 69.35521 67.70312 1.652083333 66.61562500
## [175,] 64.70 65.7875 68.64687 67.50312 1.143750000 69.35520833
## [176,] 65.65 66.2625 68.08021 67.35312 0.727083333 68.64687500
## [177,] 58.35 64.1000 62.02708 62.85625 -0.829166667 68.08020833
## [178,] 59.40 62.0250 57.82708 59.50625 -1.679166667 62.02708333
## [179,] 60.50 60.9750 57.03229 58.60937 -1.577083333 57.82708333
## [180,] 56.05 58.5750 53.83542 55.73125 -1.895833333 57.03229167
## [181,] 58.40 58.5875 56.16562 57.13437 -0.968750000 53.83541667
## [182,] 60.50 58.8625 58.21667 58.47500 -0.258333333 56.16562500
## [183,] 60.20 58.7875 58.92812 58.87187 0.056250000 58.21666667
## [184,] 62.30 60.3500 62.35521 61.55312 0.802083333 58.92812500
## [185,] 60.85 60.9625 62.99896 62.18437 0.814583333 62.35520833
## [186,] 65.05 62.1000 64.68333 63.65000 1.033333333 62.99895833
## [187,] 63.70 62.9750 65.27187 64.35312 0.918750000 64.68333333
## [188,] 60.10 62.4250 62.94062 62.73437 0.206250000 65.27187500
## [189,] 60.30 62.2875 62.02187 62.12812 -0.106250000 62.94062500
## [190,] 61.45 61.3875 59.91875 60.50625 -0.587500000 62.02187500
## [191,] 64.55 61.6000 61.05833 61.27500 -0.216666667 59.91875000
## [192,] 68.45 63.6875 66.09896 65.13437 0.964583333 61.05833333
## [193,] 63.00 64.3625 67.03437 65.96562 1.068750000 66.09895833
## [194,] 63.35 64.8375 66.86354 66.05312 0.810416667 67.03437500
## [195,] 65.10 64.9750 65.82396 65.48437 0.339583333 66.86354167
## [196,] 61.20 63.1625 61.20937 61.99062 -0.781250000 65.82395833
## [197,] 60.50 62.5375 60.30312 61.19687 -0.893750000 61.20937500
## [198,] 63.10 62.4750 61.12083 61.66250 -0.541666667 60.30312500
## [199,] 58.65 60.8625 58.53437 59.46562 -0.931250000 61.12083333
## [200,] 60.35 60.6500 59.01458 59.66875 -0.654166667 58.53437500
## [201,] 59.50 60.4000 59.23854 59.70312 -0.464583333 59.01458333
## [202,] 56.65 58.7875 56.47500 57.40000 -0.925000000 59.23854167
## [203,] 57.75 58.5625 56.83333 57.52500 -0.691666667 56.47500000
## [204,] 61.90 58.9500 58.57500 58.72500 -0.150000000 56.83333333
## [205,] 63.00 59.8250 61.14792 60.61875 0.529166667 58.57500000
## [206,] 64.30 61.7375 65.01875 63.70625 1.312500000 61.14791667
## [207,] 63.25 63.1125 66.78958 65.31875 1.470833333 65.01875000
## [208,] 64.95 63.8750 66.77083 65.61250 1.158333333 66.78958333
## [209,] 68.80 65.3250 68.34583 67.13750 1.208333333 66.77083333
## [210,] 71.15 67.0375 70.70417 69.23750 1.466666667 68.34583333
## [211,] 74.45 69.8375 75.36875 73.15625 2.212500000 70.70416667
## [212,] 75.50 72.4750 78.81875 76.28125 2.537500000 75.36875000
## [213,] 71.80 73.2250 77.52708 75.80625 1.720833333 78.81875000
## [214,] 74.00 73.9375 76.55208 75.50625 1.045833333 77.52708333
## [215,] 70.30 72.9000 72.50937 72.66562 -0.156250000 76.55208333
## [216,] 75.05 72.7875 72.07917 72.36250 -0.283333333 72.50937500
## [217,] 73.05 73.1000 72.96458 73.01875 -0.054166667 72.07916667
## [218,] 74.65 73.2625 73.67917 73.51250 0.166666667 72.96458333
## [219,] 75.55 74.5750 76.48125 75.71875 0.762500000 73.67916667
## [220,] 71.95 73.8000 73.99271 73.91562 0.077083333 76.48125000
## [221,] 73.40 73.8875 73.89792 73.89375 0.004166667 73.99270833
## [222,] 72.55 73.3625 72.45625 72.81875 -0.362500000 73.89791667
## [223,] 70.05 71.9875 69.86771 70.71562 -0.847916667 72.45625000
## [224,] 67.95 70.9875 68.37292 69.41875 -1.045833333 69.86770833
## [225,] 67.15 69.4250 66.06562 67.40937 -1.343750000 68.37291667
## [226,] 68.10 68.3125 65.20312 66.44687 -1.243750000 66.06562500
## [227,] 70.40 68.4000 66.93125 67.51875 -0.587500000 65.20312500
## [228,] 72.35 69.5000 70.48437 70.09062 0.393750000 66.93125000
## [229,] 85.55 74.1000 80.80312 78.12187 2.681250000 70.48437500
## [230,] 83.00 77.8250 86.77292 83.19375 3.579166667 80.80312500
## [231,] 83.25 81.0375 90.07396 86.45937 3.614583333 86.77291667
## [232,] 75.70 81.8750 87.15104 85.04062 2.110416667 90.07395833
## [233,] 71.60 78.3875 76.06458 76.99375 -0.929166667 87.15104167
## [234,] 70.05 75.1500 68.54583 71.18750 -2.641666667 76.06458333
## [235,] 68.85 71.5500 62.89896 66.35937 -3.460416667 68.54583333
## [236,] 69.75 70.0625 63.85417 66.33750 -2.483333333 62.89895833
## [237,] 69.85 69.6250 66.33854 67.65312 -1.314583333 63.85416667
## [238,] 66.45 68.7250 66.61562 67.45937 -0.843750000 66.33854167
## [239,] 67.05 68.2750 66.78021 67.37812 -0.597916667 66.61562500
## [240,] 65.60 67.2375 65.19062 66.00937 -0.818750000 66.78020833
## [241,] 66.55 66.4125 64.32917 65.16250 -0.833333333 65.19062500
## [242,] 70.00 67.3000 67.28958 67.29375 -0.004166667 64.32916667
## [243,] 68.30 67.6125 68.39896 68.08437 0.314583333 67.28958333
## [244,] 70.40 68.8125 70.94271 70.09062 0.852083333 68.39895833
## [245,] 75.35 71.0125 74.89271 73.34062 1.552083333 70.94270833
## [246,] 83.00 74.2625 80.65833 78.10000 2.558333333 74.89270833
## [247,] 80.15 77.2250 84.55312 81.62187 2.931250000 80.65833333
## [248,] 77.20 78.9250 84.87292 82.49375 2.379166667 84.55312500
## [249,] 74.65 78.7500 81.18229 80.20937 0.972916667 84.87291667
## [250,] 75.10 76.7750 74.86875 75.63125 -0.762500000 81.18229167
## [251,] 74.40 75.3375 71.82187 73.22812 -1.406250000 74.86875000
## [252,] 78.30 75.6125 73.93542 74.60625 -0.670833333 71.82187500
## [253,] 80.50 77.0750 78.53333 77.95000 0.583333333 73.93541667
## [254,] 87.25 80.1125 85.24271 83.19062 2.052083333 78.53333333
## [255,] 88.90 83.7375 91.40937 88.34062 3.068750000 85.24270833
## [256,] 94.90 87.8875 97.36146 93.57187 3.789583333 91.40937500
## [257,] 94.80 91.4625 100.90000 97.12500 3.775000000 97.36145833
## [258,] 102.30 95.2250 104.63646 100.87187 3.764583333 100.90000000
## [259,] 105.10 99.2750 108.96250 105.08750 3.875000000 104.63645833
## [260,] 103.75 101.4875 109.19583 106.11250 3.083333333 108.96250000
## [261,] 96.25 101.8500 105.83437 104.24062 1.593750000 109.19583333
## [262,] 100.10 101.3000 101.83646 101.62187 0.214583333 105.83437500
## [263,] 103.25 100.8375 99.95208 100.30625 -0.354166667 101.83645833
## [264,] 105.30 101.2250 101.09479 101.14687 -0.052083333 99.95208333
## [265,] 110.50 104.7875 109.37083 107.53750 1.833333333 101.09479167
## [266,] 113.45 108.1250 115.42708 112.50625 2.920833333 109.37083333
## [267,] 118.05 111.8250 120.71562 117.15937 3.556250000 115.42708333
## [268,] 115.25 114.3125 121.89583 118.86250 3.033333333 120.71562500
## [269,] 121.85 117.1500 124.31146 121.44687 2.864583333 121.89583333
## [270,] 134.45 122.4000 132.36354 128.37812 3.985416667 124.31145833
## [271,] 131.60 125.7875 135.57917 131.66250 3.916666667 132.36354167
## [272,] 120.90 127.2000 133.97604 131.26562 2.710416667 135.57916667
## [273,] 123.95 127.7250 130.96979 129.67187 1.297916667 133.97604167
## [274,] 116.85 123.3250 118.85104 120.64062 -1.789583333 130.96979167
## [275,] 112.55 118.5625 109.16146 112.92187 -3.760416667 118.85104167
## [276,] 124.80 119.5375 114.95417 116.78750 -1.833333333 109.16145833
## [277,] 125.15 119.8375 119.04062 119.35937 -0.318750000 114.95416667
## [278,] 121.90 121.1000 123.33437 122.44062 0.893750000 119.04062500
## [279,] 119.00 122.7125 125.90521 124.62812 1.277083333 123.33437500
## [280,] 117.00 120.7625 120.19479 120.42187 -0.227083333 125.90520833
## [281,] 121.90 119.9500 117.98125 118.76875 -0.787500000 120.19479167
## [282,] 125.55 120.8625 120.51354 120.65312 -0.139583333 117.98125000
## [283,] 113.00 119.3625 117.90937 118.49062 -0.581250000 120.51354167
## [284,] 107.60 117.0125 113.20521 114.72812 -1.522916667 117.90937500
## [285,] 105.45 112.9000 105.17604 108.26562 -3.089583333 113.20520833
## [286,] 102.10 107.0375 95.30312 99.99687 -4.693750000 105.17604167
## [287,] 104.15 104.8250 95.46042 99.20625 -3.745833333 95.30312500
## [288,] 103.25 103.7375 98.09167 100.35000 -2.258333333 95.46041667
## [289,] 99.45 102.2375 98.53437 100.01562 -1.481250000 98.09166667
## [290,] 103.15 102.5000 101.12500 101.67500 -0.550000000 98.53437500
## [291,] 105.35 102.8000 102.76875 102.78125 -0.012500000 101.12500000
## [292,] 104.90 103.2125 104.08750 103.73750 0.350000000 102.76875000
## [293,] 96.10 102.3750 101.79687 102.02812 -0.231250000 104.08750000
## [294,] 91.65 99.5000 95.38021 97.02812 -1.647916667 101.79687500
## [295,] 100.00 98.1625 93.74583 95.51250 -1.766666667 95.38020833
## [296,] 92.20 94.9875 88.70625 91.21875 -2.512500000 93.74583333
## [297,] 88.20 93.0125 87.34062 89.60937 -2.268750000 88.70625000
## [298,] 89.00 92.3500 88.55312 90.07187 -1.518750000 87.34062500
## [299,] 93.45 90.7125 87.29062 88.65937 -1.368750000 88.55312500
## [300,] 94.85 91.3750 90.56250 90.88750 -0.325000000 87.29062500
## [301,] 99.65 94.2375 97.68542 96.30625 1.379166667 90.56250000
## [302,] 103.45 97.8500 105.02708 102.15625 2.870833333 97.68541667
## [303,] 98.35 99.0750 104.80937 102.51562 2.293750000 105.02708333
## [304,] 103.90 101.3375 106.69167 104.55000 2.141666667 104.80937500
## [305,] 106.95 103.1625 107.83958 105.96875 1.870833333 106.69166667
## [306,] 96.80 101.5000 101.88542 101.73125 0.154166667 107.83958333
## [307,] 97.40 101.2625 100.34062 100.70937 -0.368750000 101.88541667
## [308,] 90.75 97.9750 92.97500 94.97500 -2.000000000 100.34062500
## [309,] 92.75 94.4250 87.14896 90.05937 -2.910416667 92.97500000
## [310,] 94.35 93.8125 88.71875 90.75625 -2.037500000 87.14895833
## [311,] 102.60 95.1125 94.74792 94.89375 -0.145833333 88.71875000
## [312,] 107.10 99.2000 105.13750 102.76250 2.375000000 94.74791667
## [313,] 119.55 105.9000 118.22292 113.29375 4.929166667 105.13750000
## [314,] 119.95 112.3000 127.58646 121.47187 6.114583333 118.22291667
## [315,] 118.40 116.2500 129.31250 124.08750 5.225000000 127.58645833
## [316,] 124.30 120.5500 131.88333 127.35000 4.533333333 129.31250000
## [317,] 117.60 120.0625 124.68229 122.83437 1.847916667 131.88333333
## [318,] 115.10 118.8500 118.71979 118.77187 -0.052083333 124.68229167
## [319,] 109.45 116.6125 112.60208 114.20625 -1.604166667 118.71979167
## [320,] 110.95 113.2750 106.73333 109.35000 -2.616666667 112.60208333
## [321,] 112.10 111.9000 106.46771 108.64062 -2.172916667 106.73333333
## [322,] 105.70 109.5500 104.07604 106.26562 -2.189583333 106.46770833
## [323,] 103.65 108.1000 103.75625 105.49375 -1.737500000 104.07604167
## [324,] 105.30 106.6875 102.73437 104.31562 -1.581250000 103.75625000
## [325,] 107.00 105.4125 102.03750 103.38750 -1.350000000 102.73437500
## [326,] 108.35 106.0750 105.25208 105.58125 -0.329166667 102.03750000
## [327,] 105.25 106.4750 106.99583 106.78750 0.208333333 105.25208333
## [328,] 112.00 108.1500 110.85312 109.77187 1.081250000 106.99583333
## [329,] 107.20 108.2000 109.82500 109.17500 0.650000000 110.85312500
## [330,] 106.50 107.7375 107.89896 107.83437 0.064583333 109.82500000
## [331,] 101.80 106.8750 105.43229 106.00937 -0.577083333 107.89895833
## [332,] 100.65 104.0375 99.57917 101.36250 -1.783333333 105.43229167
## [333,] 98.10 101.7625 96.19479 98.42187 -2.227083333 99.57916667
## [334,] 101.25 100.4500 95.73125 97.61875 -1.887500000 96.19479167
## [335,] 95.90 98.9750 95.08958 96.64375 -1.554166667 95.73125000
## [336,] 95.25 97.6250 94.16146 95.54687 -1.385416667 95.08958333
## [337,] 95.30 96.9250 94.31042 95.35625 -1.045833333 94.16145833
## [338,] 99.50 96.4875 94.79479 95.47187 -0.677083333 94.31041667
## [339,] 98.40 97.1125 97.23750 97.18750 0.050000000 94.79479167
## [340,] 97.00 97.5500 98.43542 98.08125 0.354166667 97.23750000
## [341,] 95.60 97.6250 98.34375 98.05625 0.287500000 98.43541667
## [342,] 99.40 97.6000 97.81354 97.72812 0.085416667 98.34375000
## [343,] 105.45 99.3625 101.57604 100.69062 0.885416667 97.81354167
## [344,] 104.30 101.1875 104.92708 103.43125 1.495833333 101.57604167
## [345,] 103.25 103.1000 107.74583 105.88750 1.858333333 104.92708333
## [346,] 106.20 104.8000 109.27917 107.48750 1.791666667 107.74583333
## [347,] 103.40 104.2875 105.86042 105.23125 0.629166667 109.27916667
## [348,] 102.45 103.8250 103.52812 103.64687 -0.118750000 105.86041667
## [349,] 98.65 102.6750 100.63854 101.45312 -0.814583333 103.52812500
## [350,] 104.45 102.2375 100.53958 101.21875 -0.679166667 100.63854167
## [351,] 107.65 103.3000 103.78437 103.59062 0.193750000 100.53958333
## [352,] 103.90 103.6625 104.81875 104.35625 0.462500000 103.78437500
## [353,] 104.05 105.0125 107.44479 106.47187 0.972916667 104.81875000
## [354,] 102.05 104.4125 104.93854 104.72812 0.210416667 107.44479167
## [355,] 108.00 104.5000 104.67187 104.60312 0.068750000 104.93854167
## [356,] 112.45 106.6375 109.13229 108.13437 0.997916667 104.67187500
## [357,] 115.85 109.5875 115.09271 112.89062 2.202083333 109.13229167
## [358,] 113.10 112.3500 119.15208 116.43125 2.720833333 115.09270833
## [359,] 115.55 114.2375 120.12812 117.77187 2.356250000 119.15208333
## [360,] 123.20 116.9250 123.00833 120.57500 2.433333333 120.12812500
## [361,] 121.85 118.4250 123.32604 121.36562 1.960416667 123.00833333
## [362,] 121.55 120.5375 125.54792 123.54375 2.004166667 123.32604167
## [363,] 125.40 123.0000 128.46354 126.27812 2.185416667 125.54791667
## [364,] 126.20 123.7500 127.61979 126.07187 1.547916667 128.46354167
## [365,] 120.45 123.4000 124.61354 124.12812 0.485416667 127.61979167
## [366,] 120.30 123.0875 122.71771 122.86562 -0.147916667 124.61354167
## [367,] 119.70 121.6625 119.47500 120.35000 -0.875000000 122.71770833
## [368,] 116.30 119.1875 114.77604 116.54062 -1.764583333 119.47500000
## [369,] 118.35 118.6625 115.35000 116.67500 -1.325000000 114.77604167
## [370,] 114.75 117.2750 114.07187 115.35312 -1.281250000 115.35000000
## [371,] 113.20 115.6500 112.24375 113.60625 -1.362500000 114.07187500
## [372,] 119.25 116.3875 115.37708 115.78125 -0.404166667 112.24375000
## [373,] 114.35 115.3875 114.07500 114.60000 -0.525000000 115.37708333
## [374,] 111.50 114.5750 113.03333 113.65000 -0.616666667 114.07500000
## [375,] 109.45 113.6375 111.37187 112.27812 -0.906250000 113.03333333
## [376,] 113.35 112.1625 109.19896 110.38437 -1.185416667 111.37187500
## [377,] 109.25 110.8875 107.67396 108.95937 -1.285416667 109.19895833
## [378,] 110.85 110.7250 108.84479 109.59687 -0.752083333 107.67395833
## [379,] 112.85 111.5750 111.97083 111.81250 0.158333333 108.84479167
## [380,] 107.70 110.1625 109.03750 109.48750 -0.450000000 111.97083333
## [381,] 103.75 108.7875 106.24583 107.26250 -1.016666667 109.03750000
## [382,] 103.00 106.8250 102.63750 104.31250 -1.675000000 106.24583333
## [383,] 102.80 104.3125 98.96354 101.10312 -2.139583333 102.63750000
## [384,] 109.50 104.7625 102.41354 103.35312 -0.939583333 98.96354167
## [385,] 112.90 107.0500 109.23750 108.36250 0.875000000 102.41354167
## [386,] 117.40 110.6500 117.24375 114.60625 2.637500000 109.23750000
## [387,] 114.85 113.6625 121.38125 118.29375 3.087500000 117.24375000
## [388,] 114.70 114.9625 120.59792 118.34375 2.254166667 121.38125000
## [389,] 113.60 115.1375 117.69479 116.67187 1.022916667 120.59791667
## [390,] 111.00 113.5375 112.22500 112.75000 -0.525000000 117.69479167
## [391,] 107.25 111.6375 108.00208 109.45625 -1.454166667 112.22500000
## [392,] 107.75 109.9000 105.47812 107.24687 -1.768750000 108.00208333
## [393,] 114.00 110.0000 107.88542 108.73125 -0.845833333 105.47812500
## [394,] 112.70 110.4250 110.31562 110.35937 -0.043750000 107.88541667
## [395,] 117.65 113.0250 116.67083 115.21250 1.458333333 110.31562500
## [396,] 120.60 116.2375 122.59687 120.05312 2.543750000 116.67083333
## [397,] 115.55 116.6250 120.86979 119.17187 1.697916667 122.59687500
## [398,] 114.65 117.1125 119.38333 118.47500 0.908333333 120.86979167
## [399,] 112.65 115.8625 114.86771 115.26562 -0.397916667 119.38333333
## [400,] 113.75 114.1500 111.17083 112.36250 -1.191666667 114.86770833
## [401,] 118.05 114.7750 113.60833 114.07500 -0.466666667 111.17083333
## [402,] 129.90 118.5875 123.16042 121.33125 1.829166667 113.60833333
## [403,] 128.65 122.5875 131.02500 127.65000 3.375000000 123.16041667
## [404,] 137.00 128.4000 140.58750 135.71250 4.875000000 131.02500000
## [405,] 139.30 133.7125 146.86354 141.60312 5.260416667 140.58750000
## [406,] 125.00 132.4875 137.80521 135.67812 2.127083333 146.86354167
## [407,] 121.45 130.6875 129.63021 130.05312 -0.422916667 137.80520833
## [408,] 118.90 126.1625 118.49583 121.56250 -3.066666667 129.63020833
## [409,] 121.75 121.7750 111.76979 115.77187 -4.002083333 118.49583333
## [410,] 124.90 121.7500 116.17708 118.40625 -2.229166667 111.76979167
## [411,] 123.45 122.2500 121.02604 121.51562 -0.489583333 116.17708333
## [412,] 125.95 124.0125 126.62187 125.57812 1.043750000 121.02604167
## [413,] 127.75 125.5125 129.06458 127.64375 1.420833333 126.62187500
## [414,] 130.75 126.9750 130.78750 129.26250 1.525000000 129.06458333
## [415,] 134.20 129.6625 134.86562 132.78437 2.081250000 130.78750000
## [416,] 133.10 131.4500 136.53333 134.50000 2.033333333 134.86562500
## [417,] 132.70 132.6875 136.84375 135.18125 1.662500000 136.53333333
## [418,] 136.30 134.0750 137.58542 136.18125 1.404166667 136.84375000
## [419,] 133.10 133.8000 135.12812 134.59687 0.531250000 137.58541667
## [420,] 131.45 133.3875 133.22083 133.28750 -0.066666667 135.12812500
## [421,] 139.10 134.9875 136.52917 135.91250 0.616666667 133.22083333
## [422,] 147.20 137.7125 142.28021 140.45312 1.827083333 136.52916667
## [423,] 149.85 141.9000 150.07187 146.80312 3.268750000 142.28020833
## [424,] 160.15 149.0750 162.66875 157.23125 5.437500000 150.07187500
## [425,] 164.60 155.4500 171.14271 164.86562 6.277083333 162.66875000
## [426,] 148.75 155.8375 164.62396 161.10937 3.514583333 171.14270833
## [427,] 150.05 155.8875 158.92917 157.71250 1.216666667 164.62395833
## [428,] 130.90 148.5750 139.63750 143.21250 -3.575000000 158.92916667
## [429,] 130.40 140.0250 123.26458 129.96875 -6.704166667 139.63750000
## [430,] 131.90 135.8125 120.37500 126.55000 -6.175000000 123.26458333
## [431,] 130.85 131.0125 117.93958 123.16875 -5.229166667 120.37500000
## [432,] 135.25 132.1000 127.70417 129.46250 -1.758333333 117.93958333
## [433,] 130.45 132.1125 131.03437 131.46562 -0.431250000 127.70416667
## [434,] 128.55 131.2750 130.69167 130.92500 -0.233333333 131.03437500
## [435,] 136.00 132.5625 133.47917 133.11250 0.366666667 130.69166667
## [436,] 138.00 133.2500 134.83333 134.20000 0.633333333 133.47916667
## [437,] 134.00 134.1375 136.35625 135.46875 0.887500000 134.83333333
## [438,] 133.90 135.4750 138.17292 137.09375 1.079166667 136.35625000
## [439,] 135.85 135.4375 136.87500 136.30000 0.575000000 138.17291667
## [440,] 134.40 134.5375 133.93854 134.17812 -0.239583333 136.87500000
## [441,] 143.95 137.0250 139.36875 138.43125 0.937500000 133.93854167
## [442,] 150.15 141.0875 147.86354 145.15312 2.710416667 139.36875000
## [443,] 149.55 144.5125 153.21562 149.73437 3.481250000 147.86354167
## [444,] 140.05 145.9250 152.23750 149.71250 2.525000000 153.21562500
## [445,] 135.65 143.8500 143.86042 143.85625 0.004166667 152.23750000
## [446,] 137.30 140.6375 135.48125 137.54375 -2.062500000 143.86041667
## [447,] 140.15 138.2875 131.80833 134.40000 -2.591666667 135.48125000
## [448,] 135.80 137.2250 132.60000 134.45000 -1.850000000 131.80833333
## [449,] 132.85 136.5250 133.78542 134.88125 -1.095833333 132.60000000
## [450,] 140.25 137.2625 137.15833 137.20000 -0.041666667 133.78541667
## [451,] 141.90 137.7000 138.56979 138.22187 0.347916667 137.15833333
## [452,] 138.85 138.4625 140.08750 139.43750 0.650000000 138.56979167
## [453,] 135.10 139.0250 140.54583 139.93750 0.608333333 140.08750000
## [454,] 133.10 137.2375 135.78958 136.36875 -0.579166667 140.54583333
## [455,] 134.15 135.3000 131.62292 133.09375 -1.470833333 135.78958333
## [456,] 122.05 131.1000 123.49062 126.53437 -3.043750000 131.62291667
## [457,] 115.35 126.1625 115.68333 119.87500 -4.191666667 123.49062500
## [458,] 115.60 121.7875 110.45417 114.98750 -4.533333333 115.68333333
## [459,] 108.65 115.4125 101.74062 107.20937 -5.468750000 110.45416667
## [460,] 113.00 113.1500 103.18646 107.17187 -3.985416667 101.74062500
## [461,] 112.10 112.3375 106.78021 109.00312 -2.222916667 103.18645833
## [462,] 110.95 111.1750 108.10208 109.33125 -1.229166667 106.78020833
## [463,] 108.95 111.2500 110.03646 110.52187 -0.485416667 108.10208333
## [464,] 114.10 111.5250 111.44687 111.47812 -0.031250000 110.03645833
## [465,] 101.60 108.9000 105.87917 107.08750 -1.208333333 111.44687500
## [466,] 109.85 108.6250 106.20833 107.17500 -0.966666667 105.87916667
## [467,] 110.95 109.1250 108.42708 108.70625 -0.279166667 106.20833333
## [468,] 108.40 107.7000 106.22083 106.81250 -0.591666667 108.42708333
## [469,] 110.90 110.0250 111.95208 111.18125 0.770833333 106.22083333
## [470,] 116.90 111.7875 115.33437 113.91562 1.418750000 111.95208333
## [471,] 115.80 113.0000 116.95312 115.37187 1.581250000 115.33437500
## [472,] 119.65 115.8125 121.07292 118.96875 2.104166667 116.95312500
## [473,] 118.90 117.8125 123.16146 121.02187 2.139583333 121.07291667
## [474,] 119.55 118.4750 122.14167 120.67500 1.466666667 123.16145833
## [475,] 112.35 117.6125 117.91979 117.79687 0.122916667 122.14166667
## [476,] 108.90 114.9250 111.12292 112.64375 -1.520833333 117.91979167
## [477,] 109.45 112.5625 107.01042 109.23125 -2.220833333 111.12291667
## [478,] 105.30 109.0000 101.45833 104.47500 -3.016666667 107.01041667
## [479,] 108.30 107.9875 102.76875 104.85625 -2.087500000 101.45833333
## [480,] 116.20 109.8125 109.76562 109.78437 -0.018750000 102.76875000
## [481,] 115.85 111.4125 114.51146 113.27187 1.239583333 109.76562500
## [482,] 118.40 114.6875 120.87500 118.40000 2.475000000 114.51145833
## [483,] 119.30 117.4375 124.27083 121.53750 2.733333333 120.87500000
## [484,] 111.85 116.3500 118.64687 117.72812 0.918750000 124.27083333
## [485,] 119.00 117.1375 118.36146 117.87187 0.489583333 118.64687500
## [486,] 119.85 117.5000 118.15625 117.89375 0.262500000 118.36145833
## [487,] 125.70 119.1000 121.73021 120.67812 1.052083333 118.15625000
## [488,] 127.55 123.0250 129.41562 126.85937 2.556250000 121.73020833
## [489,] 135.00 127.0250 135.96250 132.38750 3.575000000 129.41562500
## [490,] 137.40 131.4125 141.86562 137.68437 4.181250000 135.96250000
## [491,] 133.85 133.4500 141.31979 138.17187 3.147916667 141.86562500
## [492,] 129.55 133.9500 138.10104 136.44062 1.660416667 141.31979167
## [493,] 116.70 129.3750 124.92187 126.70312 -1.781250000 138.10104167
## [494,] 116.75 124.2125 114.15521 118.17812 -4.022916667 124.92187500
## [495,] 115.05 119.5125 107.42917 112.26250 -4.833333333 114.15520833
## [496,] 112.30 115.2000 103.74167 108.32500 -4.583333333 107.42916667
## [497,] 116.25 115.0875 109.39479 111.67187 -2.277083333 103.74166667
## [498,] 123.95 116.8875 117.24687 117.10312 0.143750000 109.39479167
## [499,] 127.85 120.0875 125.54062 123.35937 2.181250000 117.24687500
## [500,] 137.90 126.4875 137.90417 133.33750 4.566666667 125.54062500
## [501,] 128.95 129.6625 140.29792 136.04375 4.254166667 137.90416667
## [502,] 123.70 129.6000 134.83437 132.74062 2.093750000 140.29791667
## [503,] 121.10 127.9125 127.07396 127.40937 -0.335416667 134.83437500
## [504,] 122.85 124.1500 118.01458 120.46875 -2.454166667 127.07395833
## [505,] 125.30 123.2375 118.25833 120.25000 -1.991666667 118.01458333
## [506,] 134.80 126.0125 127.15312 126.69687 0.456250000 118.25833333
## [507,] 127.70 127.6625 131.65729 130.05937 1.597916667 127.15312500
## [508,] 129.70 129.3750 134.04687 132.17812 1.868750000 131.65729167
## [509,] 135.65 131.9625 137.31146 135.17187 2.139583333 134.04687500
## [510,] 142.88 133.9825 139.37729 137.21937 2.157916667 137.31145833
## [511,] 136.20 136.1075 141.52521 139.35812 2.167083333 139.37729167
## [512,] 135.38 137.5275 141.91500 140.16000 1.755000000 141.52520833
## [513,] 138.23 138.1725 141.04750 139.89750 1.150000000 141.91500000
## [514,] 131.10 135.2275 132.67542 133.69625 -1.020833333 141.04750000
## [515,] 135.50 135.0525 132.64833 133.61000 -0.961666667 132.67541667
## [516,] 138.43 135.8150 135.39521 135.56312 -0.167916667 132.64833333
## [517,] 141.15 136.5450 138.02000 137.43000 0.590000000 135.39520833
## [518,] 143.05 139.5325 144.19292 142.32875 1.864166667 138.02000000
## [519,] 145.50 142.0325 147.95125 145.58375 2.367500000 144.19291667
## [520,] 139.80 142.3750 146.13125 144.62875 1.502500000 147.95125000
## [521,] 135.93 141.0700 140.76583 140.88750 -0.121666667 146.13125000
## [522,] 145.35 141.6450 141.41896 141.50937 -0.090416667 140.76583333
## [523,] 140.75 140.4575 138.90854 139.52812 -0.619583333 141.41895833
## [524,] 139.60 140.4075 139.59500 139.92000 -0.325000000 138.90854167
## [525,] 131.95 139.4125 137.63229 138.34437 -0.712083333 139.59500000
## [526,] 128.80 135.2750 129.25312 131.66187 -2.408750000 137.63229167
## [527,] 132.75 133.2750 126.91250 129.45750 -2.545000000 129.25312500
## [528,] 134.75 132.0625 127.15625 129.11875 -1.962500000 126.91250000
## [529,] 129.05 131.3375 128.58750 129.68750 -1.100000000 127.15625000
## [530,] 128.00 131.1375 129.77812 130.32187 -0.543750000 128.58750000
## [531,] 130.15 130.4875 129.20625 129.71875 -0.512500000 129.77812500
## [532,] 130.30 129.3750 127.35937 128.16562 -0.806250000 129.20625000
## [533,] 135.85 131.0750 132.00208 131.63125 0.370833333 127.35937500
## [534,] 137.40 133.4250 137.31562 135.75937 1.556250000 132.00208333
## [535,] 132.70 134.0625 137.52604 136.14062 1.385416667 137.31562500
## [536,] 129.10 133.7625 134.89792 134.44375 0.454166667 137.52604167
## [537,] 131.80 132.7500 131.50000 132.00000 -0.500000000 134.89791667
## [538,] 135.20 132.2000 130.54375 131.20625 -0.662500000 131.50000000
## [539,] 133.00 132.2750 131.48854 131.80312 -0.314583333 130.54375000
## [540,] 134.25 133.5625 135.00521 134.42812 0.577083333 131.48854167
## [541,] 132.40 133.7125 135.00417 134.48750 0.516666667 135.00520833
## [542,] 134.25 133.4750 133.83958 133.69375 0.145833333 135.00416667
## [543,] 133.75 133.6625 133.76146 133.72187 0.039583333 133.83958333
## [544,] 144.95 136.3375 139.73854 138.37812 1.360416667 133.76145833
## [545,] 160.25 143.3000 154.31042 149.90625 4.404166667 139.73854167
## [546,] 167.00 151.4875 168.63854 161.77812 6.860416667 154.31041667
## [547,] 164.05 159.0625 178.25521 170.57812 7.677083333 168.63854167
## [548,] 163.23 163.6325 179.06896 172.89437 6.174583333 178.25520833
## [549,] 166.55 165.2075 174.14083 170.56750 3.573333333 179.06895833
## [550,] 165.28 164.7775 167.45667 166.38500 1.071666667 174.14083333
## [551,] 175.33 167.5975 171.42042 169.89125 1.529166667 167.45666667
## [552,] 167.80 168.7400 172.33896 170.89937 1.439583333 171.42041667
## [553,] 176.25 171.1650 176.32333 174.26000 2.063333333 172.33895833
## [554,] 186.28 176.4150 185.47437 181.85062 3.623750000 176.32333333
## [555,] 179.68 177.5025 184.24729 181.54937 2.697916667 185.47437500
## [556,] 186.20 182.1025 190.94625 187.40875 3.537500000 184.24729167
## [557,] 189.85 185.5025 194.03896 190.62437 3.414583333 190.94625000
## [558,] 187.85 185.8950 191.13562 189.03937 2.096250000 194.03895833
## [559,] 180.60 186.1250 188.15625 187.34375 0.812500000 191.13562500
## [560,] 181.10 184.8500 183.61146 184.10687 -0.495416667 188.15625000
## [561,] 182.15 182.9250 179.55208 180.90125 -1.349166667 183.61145833
## [562,] 186.40 182.5625 179.97396 181.00937 -1.035416667 179.55208333
## [563,] 198.85 187.1250 191.72396 189.88437 1.839583333 179.97395833
## [564,] 203.45 192.7125 203.34792 199.09375 4.254166667 191.72395833
## [565,] 205.15 198.4625 212.20729 206.70937 5.497916667 203.34791667
## [566,] 200.45 201.9750 213.48542 208.88125 4.604166667 212.20729167
## [567,] 209.85 204.7250 213.48542 209.98125 3.504166667 213.48541667
## [568,] 202.15 204.4000 207.74896 206.40937 1.339583333 213.48541667
## [569,] 204.50 204.2375 204.90937 204.64062 0.268750000 207.74895833
## [570,] 208.98 206.3700 208.76479 207.80687 0.957916667 204.90937500
## [571,] 225.25 210.2200 216.74187 214.13312 2.608750000 208.76479167
## [572,] 236.67 218.8500 233.73437 227.78062 5.953750000 216.74187500
## [573,] 240.50 227.8500 247.89583 239.87750 8.018333333 233.73437500
## [574,] 230.70 233.2800 251.16333 244.01000 7.153333333 247.89583333
## [575,] 234.60 235.6175 246.81437 242.33562 4.478750000 251.16333333
## [576,] 240.32 236.5300 241.88104 239.74062 2.140416667 246.81437500
## [577,] 245.00 237.6550 240.79562 239.53937 1.256250000 241.88104167
## [578,] 249.30 242.3050 249.43521 246.58312 2.852083333 240.79562500
## [579,] 251.95 246.6425 256.40812 252.50187 3.906250000 249.43520833
## [580,] 271.65 254.4750 269.81771 263.68062 6.137083333 256.40812500
## [581,] 267.70 260.1500 275.57812 269.40687 6.171250000 269.81770833
## [582,] 272.90 266.0500 281.41771 275.27062 6.147083333 275.57812500
## [583,] 273.70 271.4875 285.56562 279.93437 5.631250000 281.41770833
## [584,] 276.80 272.7750 281.37396 277.93437 3.439583333 285.56562500
## [585,] 268.60 273.0000 276.61979 275.17187 1.447916667 281.37395833
## [586,] 259.90 269.7500 266.41146 267.74687 -1.335416667 276.61979167
## [587,] 274.95 270.0625 267.83854 268.72812 -0.889583333 266.41145833
## [588,] 288.10 272.8875 275.32500 274.35000 0.975000000 267.83854167
## [589,] 294.25 279.3000 289.80000 285.60000 4.200000000 275.32500000
## [590,] 299.35 289.1625 308.01146 300.47187 7.539583333 289.80000000
## [591,] 287.05 292.1875 306.85937 300.99062 5.868750000 308.01145833
## [592,] 269.30 287.4875 288.24271 287.94062 0.302083333 306.85937500
## [593,] 259.15 278.7125 265.08750 270.53750 -5.450000000 288.24270833
## [594,] 263.70 269.8000 249.38854 257.55312 -8.164583333 265.08750000
## [595,] 270.95 265.7750 249.66042 256.10625 -6.445833333 249.38854167
## [596,] 264.95 264.6875 256.26042 259.63125 -3.370833333 249.66041667
## [597,] 249.55 262.2875 256.70417 258.93750 -2.233333333 256.26041667
## [598,] 249.00 258.6125 251.56562 254.38437 -2.818750000 256.70416667
## [599,] 263.45 256.7375 250.33125 252.89375 -2.562500000 251.56562500
## [600,] 263.15 256.2875 252.63125 254.09375 -1.462500000 250.33125000
## [601,] 252.55 257.0375 256.81875 256.90625 -0.087500000 252.63125000
## [602,] 241.50 255.1625 253.25625 254.01875 -0.762500000 256.81875000
## [603,] 239.55 249.1875 240.46875 243.95625 -3.487500000 253.25625000
## [604,] 238.00 242.9000 229.28021 234.72812 -5.447916667 240.46875000
## [605,] 240.35 239.8500 228.30833 232.92500 -4.616666667 229.28020833
## [606,] 266.15 246.0125 248.55417 247.53750 1.016666667 228.30833333
## [607,] 278.90 255.8500 272.01146 265.54687 6.464583333 248.55416667
## [608,] 289.20 268.6500 295.41562 284.70937 10.706250000 272.01145833
## [609,] 271.25 276.3750 300.79687 291.02812 9.768750000 295.41562500
## [610,] 263.00 275.5875 286.37396 282.05937 4.314583333 300.79687500
## [611,] 231.45 263.7250 251.45937 256.36562 -4.906250000 286.37395833
## [612,] 228.90 248.6500 219.59271 231.21562 -11.622916667 251.45937500
## [613,] 224.35 236.9250 204.76354 217.62812 -12.864583333 219.59270833
## [614,] 239.55 231.0625 207.68229 217.03437 -9.352083333 204.76354167
## [615,] 244.85 234.4125 228.82917 231.06250 -2.233333333 207.68229167
## [616,] 235.15 235.9750 238.27708 237.35625 0.920833333 228.82916667
## [617,] 230.20 237.4375 241.96354 240.15312 1.810416667 238.27708333
## [618,] 233.95 236.0375 236.15729 236.10937 0.047916667 241.96354167
## [619,] 234.20 233.3750 229.48958 231.04375 -1.554166667 236.15729167
## [620,] 229.60 231.9875 227.45104 229.26562 -1.814583333 229.48958333
## [621,] 227.15 231.2250 228.00625 229.29375 -1.287500000 227.45104167
## [622,] 227.05 229.5000 226.13021 227.47812 -1.347916667 228.00625000
## [623,] 210.95 223.6875 214.66667 218.27500 -3.608333333 226.13020833
## [624,] 217.88 220.7575 211.53250 215.22250 -3.690000000 214.66666667
## [625,] 226.85 220.6825 215.72521 217.70812 -1.982916667 211.53250000
## [626,] 221.75 219.3575 216.41792 217.59375 -1.175833333 215.72520833
## [627,] 225.25 222.9325 226.26583 224.93250 1.333333333 216.41791667
## [628,] 225.40 224.8125 229.58958 227.67875 1.910833333 226.26583333
## [629,] 217.35 222.4375 222.52500 222.49000 0.035000000 229.58958333
## [630,] 215.95 220.9875 217.97917 219.18250 -1.203333333 222.52500000
## [631,] 215.30 218.5000 213.19271 215.31562 -2.122916667 217.97916667
## [632,] 200.05 212.1625 201.56354 205.80312 -4.239583333 213.19270833
## [633,] 203.25 208.6375 197.91354 202.20312 -4.289583333 201.56354167
## [634,] 201.65 205.0625 195.01562 199.03437 -4.018750000 197.91354167
## [635,] 185.60 197.6375 183.90833 189.40000 -5.491666667 195.01562500
## [636,] 181.35 192.9625 179.44167 184.85000 -5.408333333 183.90833333
## [637,] 178.75 186.8375 172.19167 178.05000 -5.858333333 179.44166667
## [638,] 182.45 182.0375 168.98542 174.20625 -5.220833333 172.19166667
## [639,] 183.00 181.3875 174.02292 176.96875 -2.945833333 168.98541667
## [640,] 179.20 180.8500 177.63646 178.92187 -1.285416667 174.02291667
## [641,] 177.70 180.5875 179.54062 179.95937 -0.418750000 177.63645833
## [642,] 175.00 178.7250 175.95417 177.06250 -1.108333333 179.54062500
## [643,] 173.50 176.3500 171.71979 173.57187 -1.852083333 175.95416667
## [644,] 176.55 175.6875 172.10417 173.53750 -1.433333333 171.71979167
## [645,] 177.70 175.6875 174.14583 174.76250 -0.616666667 172.10416667
## [646,] 167.80 173.8875 171.36146 172.37187 -1.010416667 174.14583333
## [647,] 157.50 169.8875 163.38750 165.98750 -2.600000000 171.36145833
## [648,] 155.60 164.6500 154.01979 158.27187 -4.252083333 163.38750000
## [649,] 150.05 157.7375 143.06562 148.93437 -5.868750000 154.01979167
## [650,] 155.15 154.5750 142.67917 147.43750 -4.758333333 143.06562500
## [651,] 170.85 157.9125 156.56875 157.10625 -0.537500000 142.67916667
## [652,] 175.90 162.9875 170.79479 167.67187 3.122916667 156.56875000
## [653,] 184.45 171.5875 187.95729 181.40937 6.547916667 170.79479167
## [654,] 186.95 179.5375 198.75625 191.06875 7.687500000 187.95729167
## [655,] 173.70 180.2500 191.34896 186.90937 4.439583333 198.75625000
## [656,] 173.80 179.7250 182.97500 181.67500 1.300000000 191.34895833
## [657,] 166.25 175.1750 169.34687 171.67812 -2.331250000 182.97500000
## [658,] 160.30 168.5125 156.17396 161.10937 -4.935416667 169.34687500
## [659,] 163.15 165.8750 155.13021 159.42812 -4.297916667 156.17395833
## [660,] 164.55 163.5625 155.69792 158.84375 -3.145833333 155.13020833
## [661,] 162.70 162.6750 158.53958 160.19375 -1.654166667 155.69791667
## [662,] 180.80 167.8000 172.50312 170.62187 1.881250000 158.53958333
## [663,] 173.30 170.3375 177.41042 174.58125 2.829166667 172.50312500
## [664,] 173.50 172.5750 179.62187 176.80312 2.818750000 177.41041667
## [665,] 167.77 173.8425 178.34875 176.54625 1.802500000 179.62187500
## [666,] 162.35 169.2300 165.45292 166.96375 -1.510833333 178.34875000
## [667,] 161.65 166.3175 159.36125 162.14375 -2.782500000 165.45291667
## [668,] 157.75 162.3800 153.10917 156.81750 -3.708333333 159.36125000
## [669,] 154.70 159.1125 150.53333 153.96500 -3.431666667 153.10916667
## [670,] 149.90 156.0000 147.74583 151.04750 -3.301666667 150.53333333
## [671,] 147.30 152.4125 143.97292 147.34875 -3.375833333 147.74583333
## [672,] 142.15 148.5125 139.35104 143.01562 -3.664583333 143.97291667
## [673,] 149.88 147.3075 141.05646 143.55687 -2.500416667 139.35104167
## [674,] 142.10 145.3575 140.29083 142.31750 -2.026666667 141.05645833
## [675,] 137.40 142.8825 137.66167 139.75000 -2.088333333 140.29083333
## [676,] 146.60 143.9950 142.51062 143.10437 -0.593750000 137.66166667
## [677,] 146.85 143.2375 142.18646 142.60687 -0.420416667 142.51062500
## [678,] 147.35 144.5500 146.02292 145.43375 0.589166667 142.18645833
## [679,] 153.35 148.5375 154.30000 151.99500 2.305000000 146.02291667
## [680,] 155.68 150.8075 157.51479 154.83187 2.682916667 154.30000000
## [681,] 148.30 151.1700 155.17625 153.57375 1.602500000 157.51479167
## [682,] 147.95 151.3200 152.75542 152.18125 0.574166667 155.17625000
## [683,] 141.05 148.2450 144.67729 146.10437 -1.427083333 152.75541667
## [684,] 136.95 143.5625 135.20937 138.55062 -3.341250000 144.67729167
## [685,] 143.10 142.2625 135.45417 138.17750 -2.723333333 135.20937500
## [686,] 142.90 141.0000 136.38750 138.23250 -1.845000000 135.45416667
## [687,] 143.35 141.5750 140.70000 141.05000 -0.350000000 136.38750000
## [688,] 136.50 141.4625 141.27500 141.35000 -0.075000000 140.70000000
## [689,] 135.30 139.5125 137.22083 138.13750 -0.916666667 141.27500000
## [690,] 137.15 138.0750 134.60625 135.99375 -1.387500000 137.22083333
## [691,] 140.15 137.2750 134.26458 135.46875 -1.204166667 134.60625000
## [692,] 135.25 136.9625 135.30625 135.96875 -0.662500000 134.26458333
## [693,] 141.65 138.5500 139.94062 139.38437 0.556250000 135.30625000
## [694,] 133.90 137.7375 137.91458 137.84375 0.070833333 139.94062500
## [695,] 140.30 137.7750 137.80625 137.79375 0.012500000 137.91458333
## [696,] 143.80 139.9125 142.27708 141.33125 0.945833333 137.80625000
## [697,] 135.60 138.4000 138.30625 138.34375 -0.037500000 142.27708333
## [698,] 127.25 136.7375 134.28958 135.26875 -0.979166667 138.30625000
## [699,] 127.05 133.4250 127.26875 129.73125 -2.462500000 134.28958333
## [700,] 126.95 129.2125 120.49375 123.98125 -3.487500000 127.26875000
## [701,] 122.25 125.8750 116.81250 120.43750 -3.625000000 120.49375000
## [702,] 118.70 123.7375 116.52917 119.41250 -2.883333333 116.81250000
## [703,] 120.00 121.9750 116.60000 118.75000 -2.150000000 116.52916667
## [704,] 120.95 120.4750 116.24062 117.93437 -1.693750000 116.60000000
## [705,] 119.15 119.7000 116.74687 117.92812 -1.181250000 116.24062500
## [706,] 122.60 120.6750 120.62292 120.64375 -0.020833333 116.74687500
## [707,] 122.25 121.2375 122.43021 121.95312 0.477083333 120.62291667
## [708,] 118.25 120.5625 120.59375 120.58125 0.012500000 122.43020833
## [709,] 122.90 121.5000 122.34375 122.00625 0.337500000 120.59375000
## [710,] 120.50 120.9750 120.81875 120.88125 -0.062500000 122.34375000
## [711,] 113.05 118.6750 115.75312 116.92187 -1.168750000 120.81875000
## [712,] 112.10 117.1375 113.08021 114.70312 -1.622916667 115.75312500
## [713,] 113.95 114.9000 109.86354 111.87812 -2.014583333 113.08020833
## [714,] 115.55 113.6625 109.61042 111.23125 -1.620833333 109.86354167
## [715,] 114.65 114.0625 112.59896 113.18437 -0.585416667 109.61041667
## [716,] 113.70 114.4625 114.78021 114.65312 0.127083333 112.59895833
## [717,] 114.40 114.5750 115.21562 114.95937 0.256250000 114.78020833
## [718,] 116.70 114.8625 115.48229 115.23437 0.247916667 115.21562500
## [719,] 114.65 114.8625 115.14896 115.03437 0.114583333 115.48229167
## [720,] 109.10 113.7125 112.39479 112.92187 -0.527083333 115.14895833
## [721,] 105.55 111.5000 107.77604 109.26562 -1.489583333 112.39479167
## [722,] 104.05 108.3375 102.06146 104.57187 -2.510416667 107.77604167
## [723,] 105.75 106.1125 99.77396 102.30937 -2.535416667 102.06145833
## [724,] 107.28 105.6575 101.91687 103.41312 -1.496250000 99.77395833
## [725,] 110.25 106.8325 106.99500 106.93000 0.065000000 101.91687500
## [726,] 105.80 107.2700 108.60646 108.07187 0.534583333 106.99500000
## [727,] 114.50 109.4575 113.04604 111.61062 1.435416667 108.60645833
## [728,] 115.30 111.4625 115.97396 114.16937 1.804583333 113.04604167
## [729,] 116.35 112.9875 117.47604 115.68062 1.795416667 115.97395833
## [730,] 116.35 115.6250 121.02812 118.86687 2.161250000 117.47604167
## [731,] 120.65 117.1625 121.91771 120.01562 1.902083333 121.02812500
## [732,] 117.15 117.6250 120.58333 119.40000 1.183333333 121.91770833
## [733,] 114.40 117.1375 117.55417 117.38750 0.166666667 120.58333333
## [734,] 125.20 119.3500 121.90208 120.88125 1.020833333 117.55416667
## [735,] 135.70 123.1125 129.45625 126.91875 2.537500000 121.90208333
## [736,] 139.90 128.8000 139.96667 135.50000 4.466666667 129.45625000
## [737,] 168.55 142.3375 165.56667 156.27500 9.291666667 139.96666667
## [738,] 179.80 155.9875 186.70104 174.41562 12.285416667 165.56666667
## [739,] 196.05 171.0750 206.95000 192.60000 14.350000000 186.70104167
## [740,] 197.85 185.5625 221.93229 207.38437 14.547916667 206.95000000
## [741,] 171.15 186.2125 205.38437 197.71562 7.668750000 221.93229167
## [742,] 180.60 186.4125 193.24062 190.50937 2.731250000 205.38437500
## [743,] 185.00 183.6500 180.63437 181.84062 -1.206250000 193.24062500
## [744,] 201.20 184.4875 183.31562 183.78437 -0.468750000 180.63437500
## [745,] 201.20 192.0000 200.93750 197.36250 3.575000000 183.31562500
## [746,] 204.75 198.0375 212.19375 206.53125 5.662500000 200.93750000
## [747,] 200.60 201.9375 214.97396 209.75937 5.214583333 212.19375000
## [748,] 184.85 197.8500 198.50625 198.24375 0.262500000 214.97395833
## [749,] 182.50 193.1750 185.55000 188.60000 -3.050000000 198.50625000
## [750,] 181.90 187.4625 174.72292 179.81875 -5.095833333 185.55000000
## [751,] 177.50 181.6875 167.76042 173.33125 -5.570833333 174.72291667
## [752,] 172.10 178.5000 167.32292 171.79375 -4.470833333 167.76041667
## [753,] 173.70 176.3000 168.48750 171.61250 -3.125000000 167.32291667
## [754,] 173.25 174.1375 168.27292 170.61875 -2.345833333 168.48750000
## [755,] 170.45 172.3750 167.45312 169.42187 -1.968750000 168.27291667
## [756,] 172.02 172.3550 169.96021 170.91812 -0.957916667 167.45312500
## [757,] 158.95 168.6675 163.30708 165.45125 -2.144166667 169.96020833
## [758,] 170.70 168.0300 164.15187 165.70312 -1.551250000 163.30708333
## [759,] 179.15 170.2050 170.85604 170.59562 0.260416667 164.15187500
## [760,] 192.13 175.2325 183.06375 179.93125 3.132500000 170.85604167
## [761,] 180.85 180.7075 192.64708 187.87125 4.775833333 183.06375000
## [762,] 188.75 185.2200 197.51792 192.59875 4.919166667 192.64708333
## [763,] 181.60 185.8325 192.63979 189.91687 2.722916667 197.51791667
## [764,] 195.75 186.7375 190.25937 188.85062 1.408750000 192.63979167
## [765,] 192.85 189.7375 194.49687 192.59312 1.903750000 190.25937500
## [766,] 179.65 187.4625 187.49583 187.48250 0.013333333 194.49687500
## [767,] 178.00 186.5625 184.79167 185.50000 -0.708333333 187.49583333
## [768,] 186.05 184.1375 179.40833 181.30000 -1.891666667 184.79166667
## [769,] 206.50 187.5500 189.41979 188.67187 0.747916667 179.40833333
## [770,] 220.40 197.7375 212.30521 206.47812 5.827083333 189.41979167
## [771,] 210.65 205.9000 226.01458 217.96875 8.045833333 212.30520833
## [772,] 191.50 207.2625 220.01250 214.91250 5.100000000 226.01458333
## [773,] 188.00 202.6375 201.39271 201.89062 -0.497916667 220.01250000
## [774,] 182.40 193.1375 177.97604 184.04062 -6.064583333 201.39270833
## [775,] 192.00 188.4750 172.80312 179.07187 -6.268750000 177.97604167
## [776,] 189.65 188.0125 179.59062 182.95937 -3.368750000 172.80312500
## [777,] 187.48 187.8825 185.39187 186.38812 -0.996250000 179.59062500
## [778,] 181.10 187.5575 186.85021 187.13312 -0.282916667 185.39187500
## [779,] 174.13 183.0900 177.18062 179.54437 -2.363750000 186.85020833
## [780,] 174.88 179.3975 170.92354 174.31312 -3.389583333 177.18062500
## [781,] 169.07 174.7950 164.10333 168.38000 -4.276666667 170.92354167
## [782,] 161.05 169.7825 158.14292 162.79875 -4.655833333 164.10333333
## [783,] 180.05 171.2625 167.01771 168.71562 -1.697916667 158.14291667
## [784,] 171.00 170.2925 168.22479 169.05187 -0.827083333 167.01770833
## [785,] 162.45 168.6375 166.37708 167.28125 -0.904166667 168.22479167
## [786,] 161.90 168.8500 167.33229 167.93937 -0.607083333 166.37708333
## [787,] 166.85 165.5500 160.91250 162.76750 -1.855000000 167.33229167
## [788,] 163.20 163.6000 158.50104 160.54062 -2.039583333 160.91250000
## [789,] 148.65 160.1500 152.83750 155.76250 -2.925000000 158.50104167
## [790,] 136.75 153.8625 142.31562 146.93437 -4.618750000 152.83750000
## [791,] 136.50 146.2750 130.11354 136.57812 -6.464583333 142.31562500
## [792,] 126.45 137.0875 116.66042 124.83125 -8.170833333 130.11354167
## [793,] 143.35 135.7625 123.28854 128.27812 -4.989583333 116.66041667
## [794,] 138.20 136.1250 131.64583 133.43750 -1.791666667 123.28854167
## [795,] 140.90 137.2250 138.35000 137.90000 0.450000000 131.64583333
## [796,] 135.10 139.3875 143.15833 141.65000 1.508333333 138.35000000
## [797,] 138.70 138.2250 139.03229 138.70937 0.322916667 143.15833333
## [798,] 141.15 138.9625 139.81667 139.47500 0.341666667 139.03229167
## [799,] 133.45 137.1000 134.90208 135.78125 -0.879166667 139.81666667
## [800,] 132.90 136.5500 134.61771 135.39062 -0.772916667 134.90208333
## [801,] 137.20 136.1750 134.47187 135.15312 -0.681250000 134.61770833
## [802,] 126.95 132.6250 127.64583 129.63750 -1.991666667 134.47187500
## [803,] 126.15 130.8000 125.40417 127.56250 -2.158333333 127.64583333
## [804,] 135.10 131.3500 129.03750 129.96250 -0.925000000 125.40416667
## [805,] 132.05 130.0625 128.15104 128.91562 -0.764583333 129.03750000
## [806,] 127.15 130.1125 129.33125 129.64375 -0.312500000 128.15104167
## [807,] 131.70 131.5000 132.73958 132.24375 0.495833333 129.33125000
## [808,] 125.60 129.1250 127.33333 128.05000 -0.716666667 132.73958333
## [809,] 122.95 126.8500 122.60521 124.30312 -1.697916667 127.33333333
## [810,] 127.00 126.8125 123.88021 125.05312 -1.172916667 122.60520833
## [811,] 122.25 124.4500 120.51771 122.09062 -1.572916667 123.88020833
## [812,] 125.25 124.3625 122.26875 123.10625 -0.837500000 120.51770833
## [813,] 127.80 125.5750 126.03333 125.85000 0.183333333 122.26875000
## [814,] 137.50 128.2000 132.45521 130.75312 1.702083333 126.03333333
## [815,] 121.90 128.1125 130.69583 129.66250 1.033333333 132.45520833
## [816,] 120.45 126.9125 126.43333 126.62500 -0.191666667 130.69583333
## [817,] 115.85 123.9250 119.15417 121.06250 -1.908333333 126.43333333
## [818,] 113.35 117.8875 107.35104 111.56562 -4.214583333 119.15416667
## [819,] 113.35 115.7500 106.80208 110.38125 -3.579166667 107.35104167
## [820,] 122.70 116.3125 112.71875 114.15625 -1.437500000 106.80208333
## [821,] 124.30 118.4250 120.64375 119.75625 0.887500000 112.71875000
## [822,] 131.60 122.9875 130.68542 127.60625 3.079166667 120.64375000
## [823,] 125.85 126.1125 134.70104 131.26562 3.435416667 130.68541667
## [824,] 118.45 125.0500 128.22708 126.95625 1.270833333 134.70104167
## [825,] 120.95 124.2125 123.58229 123.83437 -0.252083333 128.22708333
## [826,] 117.75 120.7500 115.28125 117.46875 -2.187500000 123.58229167
## [827,] 112.15 117.3250 109.80937 112.81562 -3.006250000 115.28125000
## [828,] 121.90 118.1875 114.96875 116.25625 -1.287500000 109.80937500
## [829,] 121.00 118.2000 117.50729 117.78437 -0.277083333 114.96875000
## [830,] 124.00 119.7625 122.08542 121.15625 0.929166667 117.50729167
## [831,] 118.10 121.2500 124.41667 123.15000 1.266666667 122.08541667
## [832,] 118.45 120.3875 121.20000 120.87500 0.325000000 124.41666667
## [833,] 119.70 120.0625 119.55729 119.75937 -0.202083333 121.20000000
## [834,] 126.70 120.7375 120.95104 120.86562 0.085416667 119.55729167
## [835,] 119.00 120.9625 121.67083 121.38750 0.283333333 120.95104167
## [836,] 114.90 120.0750 119.43437 119.69062 -0.256250000 121.67083333
## [837,] 116.00 119.1500 117.34792 118.06875 -0.720833333 119.43437500
## [838,] 116.35 116.5625 112.18750 113.93750 -1.750000000 117.34791667
## [839,] 120.40 116.9125 114.80833 115.65000 -0.841666667 112.18750000
## [840,] 115.55 117.0750 116.49167 116.72500 -0.233333333 114.80833333
## [841,] 115.75 117.0125 117.21562 117.13437 0.081250000 116.49166667
## [842,] 113.00 116.1750 115.14375 115.55625 -0.412500000 117.21562500
## [843,] 118.80 115.7750 114.55104 115.04062 -0.489583333 115.14375000
## [844,] 124.40 117.9875 120.07083 119.23750 0.833333333 114.55104167
## [845,] 133.85 122.5125 129.84583 126.91250 2.933333333 120.07083333
## [846,] 127.55 126.1500 135.38958 131.69375 3.695833333 129.84583333
## [847,] 127.25 128.2625 135.81979 132.79687 3.022916667 135.38958333
## [848,] 120.45 127.2750 129.31667 128.50000 0.816666667 135.81979167
## [849,] 122.95 124.5500 121.20104 122.54062 -1.339583333 129.31666667
## [850,] 122.75 123.3500 119.16771 120.84062 -1.672916667 121.20104167
## [851,] 120.85 121.7500 117.61458 119.26875 -1.654166667 119.16770833
## [852,] 123.45 122.5000 121.60417 121.96250 -0.358333333 117.61458333
## [853,] 128.80 123.9625 125.74896 125.03437 0.714583333 121.60416667
## [854,] 124.70 124.4500 126.59062 125.73437 0.856250000 125.74895833
## [855,] 121.30 124.5625 125.71875 125.25625 0.462500000 126.59062500
## [856,] 127.10 125.4750 126.91250 126.33750 0.575000000 125.71875000
## [857,] 136.95 127.5125 130.86667 129.52500 1.341666667 126.91250000
## [858,] 140.75 131.5250 138.61875 135.78125 2.837500000 130.86666667
## [859,] 134.35 134.7875 143.05833 139.75000 3.308333333 138.61875000
## [860,] 144.85 139.2250 149.16250 145.18750 3.975000000 143.05833333
## [861,] 142.75 140.6750 147.54479 144.79687 2.747916667 149.16250000
## [862,] 145.70 141.9125 146.51667 144.67500 1.841666667 147.54479167
## [863,] 141.90 143.8000 147.79479 146.19687 1.597916667 146.51666667
## [864,] 146.20 144.1375 146.64792 145.64375 1.004166667 147.79479167
## [865,] 142.50 144.0750 145.06458 144.66875 0.395833333 146.64791667
## [866,] 136.85 141.8625 139.18542 140.25625 -1.070833333 145.06458333
## [867,] 138.80 141.0875 138.24896 139.38437 -1.135416667 139.18541667
## [868,] 143.90 140.5125 138.22604 139.14062 -0.914583333 138.24895833
## [869,] 150.10 142.4125 143.98542 143.35625 0.629166667 138.22604167
## [870,] 149.95 145.6875 151.12500 148.95000 2.175000000 143.98541667
## [871,] 147.10 147.7625 153.87708 151.43125 2.445833333 151.12500000
## [872,] 151.40 149.6375 155.07500 152.90000 2.175000000 153.87708333
## [873,] 151.55 150.0000 152.88021 151.72812 1.152083333 155.07500000
## [874,] 148.00 149.5125 149.98646 149.79687 0.189583333 152.88020833
## [875,] 155.40 151.5875 153.92604 152.99062 0.935416667 149.98645833
## [876,] 156.10 152.7625 155.75729 154.55937 1.197916667 153.92604167
## [877,] 165.50 156.2500 162.45312 159.97187 2.481250000 155.75729167
## [878,] 171.35 162.0875 172.78021 168.50312 4.277083333 162.45312500
## [879,] 159.45 163.1000 170.68333 167.65000 3.033333333 172.78020833
## [880,] 157.85 163.5375 167.36042 165.83125 1.529166667 170.68333333
## [881,] 152.30 160.2375 156.89896 158.23437 -1.335416667 167.36041667
## [882,] 141.20 152.7000 140.71042 145.50625 -4.795833333 156.89895833
## [883,] 135.55 146.7250 131.60000 137.65000 -6.050000000 140.71041667
## [884,] 138.20 141.8125 127.55208 133.25625 -5.704166667 131.60000000
## [885,] 136.15 137.7750 126.14479 130.79687 -4.652083333 127.55208333
## [886,] 137.05 136.7375 130.02917 132.71250 -2.683333333 126.14479167
## [887,] 142.85 138.5625 138.29687 138.40312 -0.106250000 130.02916667
## [888,] 149.30 141.3375 145.89479 144.07187 1.822916667 138.29687500
## [889,] 153.20 145.6000 154.00104 150.64062 3.360416667 145.89479167
## [890,] 152.40 149.4375 158.94271 155.14062 3.802083333 154.00104167
## [891,] 146.25 150.2875 156.32396 153.90937 2.414583333 158.94270833
## [892,] 145.75 149.4000 150.59792 150.11875 0.479166667 156.32395833
## [893,] 147.80 148.0500 145.97708 146.80625 -0.829166667 150.59791667
## [894,] 144.40 146.0500 142.05521 143.65312 -1.597916667 145.97708333
## [895,] 141.25 144.8000 141.00833 142.52500 -1.516666667 142.05520833
## [896,] 139.65 143.2750 139.49375 141.00625 -1.512500000 141.00833333
## [897,] 140.80 141.5250 137.54583 139.13750 -1.591666667 139.49375000
## [898,] 137.60 139.8250 135.60625 137.29375 -1.687500000 137.54583333
## [899,] 139.30 139.3375 136.58229 137.68437 -1.102083333 135.60625000
## [900,] 140.05 139.4375 138.44792 138.84375 -0.395833333 136.58229167
## [901,] 138.90 138.9625 138.24896 138.53437 -0.285416667 138.44791667
## [902,] 129.85 137.0250 134.24896 135.35937 -1.110416667 138.24895833
## [903,] 131.05 134.9625 130.57187 132.32812 -1.756250000 134.24895833
## [904,] 133.10 133.2250 128.52708 130.40625 -1.879166667 130.57187500
## [905,] 132.60 131.6500 127.37396 129.08437 -1.710416667 128.52708333
## [906,] 132.10 132.2125 130.87917 131.41250 -0.533333333 127.37395833
## [907,] 131.20 132.2500 132.10937 132.16562 -0.056250000 130.87916667
## [908,] 125.55 130.3625 128.26875 129.10625 -0.837500000 132.10937500
## [909,] 126.55 128.8500 125.40208 126.78125 -1.379166667 128.26875000
## [910,] 123.55 126.7125 121.99375 123.88125 -1.887500000 125.40208333
## [911,] 119.95 123.9000 117.97292 120.34375 -2.370833333 121.99375000
## [912,] 124.05 123.5250 119.82187 121.30312 -1.481250000 117.97291667
## [913,] 126.55 123.5250 122.04062 122.63437 -0.593750000 119.82187500
## [914,] 131.70 125.5625 127.95312 126.99687 0.956250000 122.04062500
## [915,] 136.55 129.7125 136.59792 133.84375 2.754166667 127.95312500
## [916,] 137.85 133.1625 141.78229 138.33437 3.447916667 136.59791667
## [917,] 140.15 136.5625 145.41667 141.87500 3.541666667 141.78229167
## [918,] 140.30 138.7125 145.67083 142.88750 2.783333333 145.41666667
## [919,] 128.05 136.5875 137.13958 136.91875 0.220833333 145.67083333
## [920,] 130.20 134.6750 131.40937 132.71562 -1.306250000 137.13958333
## [921,] 127.75 131.5750 125.22083 127.76250 -2.541666667 131.40937500
## [922,] 129.40 128.8500 122.06354 124.77812 -2.714583333 125.22083333
## [923,] 140.00 131.8375 132.00937 131.94062 0.068750000 122.06354167
## [924,] 134.45 132.9000 135.58229 134.50937 1.072916667 132.00937500
## [925,] 128.05 132.9750 135.19896 134.30937 0.889583333 135.58229167
## [926,] 130.00 133.1250 133.81771 133.54062 0.277083333 135.19895833
## [927,] 126.45 129.7375 125.65937 127.29062 -1.631250000 133.81770833
## [928,] 125.25 127.4375 121.80208 124.05625 -2.254166667 125.65937500
## [929,] 126.60 127.0750 123.29375 124.80625 -1.512500000 121.80208333
## [930,] 123.95 125.5625 122.41146 123.67187 -1.260416667 123.29375000
## [931,] 127.55 125.8375 124.76979 125.19687 -0.427083333 122.41145833
## [932,] 123.80 125.4750 124.62083 124.96250 -0.341666667 124.76979167
## [933,] 124.80 125.0250 124.27500 124.57500 -0.300000000 124.62083333
## [934,] 127.55 125.9250 126.52396 126.28437 0.239583333 124.27500000
## [935,] 120.60 124.1875 122.57812 123.22187 -0.643750000 126.52395833
## [936,] 116.95 122.4750 119.26146 120.54687 -1.285416667 122.57812500
## [937,] 120.40 121.3750 117.84896 119.25937 -1.410416667 119.26145833
## [938,] 126.20 121.0375 118.98542 119.80625 -0.820833333 117.84895833
## [939,] 128.45 123.0000 124.71354 124.02812 0.685416667 118.98541667
## [940,] 122.25 124.3250 127.47604 126.21562 1.260416667 124.71354167
## [941,] 121.25 124.5375 126.72500 125.85000 0.875000000 127.47604167
## [942,] 125.15 124.2750 124.67604 124.51562 0.160416667 126.72500000
## [943,] 120.40 122.2625 119.61667 120.67500 -1.058333333 124.67604167
## [944,] 121.85 122.1625 120.25104 121.01562 -0.764583333 119.61666667
## [945,] 117.95 121.3375 119.38437 120.16562 -0.781250000 120.25104167
## [946,] 119.45 119.9125 117.40208 118.40625 -1.004166667 119.38437500
## [947,] NA NA NA NA NA 117.40208333
## [948,] NA NA NA NA NA 116.39791667
## [949,] NA NA NA NA NA 115.39375000
## [950,] NA NA NA NA NA 114.38958333
## [951,] NA NA NA NA NA 113.38541667
## [952,] NA NA NA NA NA 112.38125000
## [953,] NA NA NA NA NA 111.37708333
## [954,] NA NA 107.10729 NA NA 110.37291667
## [955,] NA NA 99.40312 NA NA 109.36875000
## [956,] NA NA 97.35937 NA NA 108.36458333
## [957,] NA NA 99.10625 NA NA 107.36041667
## [958,] NA NA 102.94687 NA NA 106.35625000
## [959,] NA NA 106.37812 NA NA 105.35208333
## [960,] NA NA 105.65312 NA NA 104.34791667
## [961,] NA NA 101.42396 NA NA 103.34375000
## [962,] NA NA 94.15000 NA NA 102.33958333
## [963,] NA NA 93.25833 NA NA 101.33541667
## [964,] NA NA 91.17396 NA NA 100.33125000
## [965,] NA NA 92.46562 NA NA 99.32708333
## [966,] NA NA 93.71146 NA NA 98.32291667
## [967,] NA NA 95.07396 NA NA 97.31875000
## [968,] NA NA 97.62187 NA NA 96.31458333
## [969,] NA NA 96.55208 NA NA 95.31041667
## [970,] NA NA 96.28854 NA NA 94.30625000
## [971,] NA NA 89.99375 NA NA 93.30208333
## [972,] NA NA 84.40417 NA NA 92.29791667
## [973,] NA NA 80.76042 NA NA 91.29375000
## [974,] NA NA 78.03958 NA NA 90.28958333
## [975,] NA NA 82.63958 NA NA 89.28541667
## [976,] NA NA 90.10729 NA NA 88.28125000
## [977,] NA NA 91.49479 NA NA 87.27708333
## [978,] NA NA 92.73125 NA NA 86.27291667
## [979,] NA NA 86.18437 NA NA 85.26875000
## [980,] NA NA 76.03854 NA NA 84.26458333
## [981,] NA NA 72.89687 NA NA 83.26041667
## [982,] NA NA 70.72604 NA NA 82.25625000
## [983,] NA NA 72.90833 NA NA 81.25208333
## [984,] NA NA 74.14687 NA NA 80.24791667
## [985,] NA NA 75.95417 NA NA 79.24375000
## [986,] NA NA 80.99062 NA NA 78.23958333
## [987,] NA NA 81.50833 NA NA 77.23541667
## [988,] NA NA 83.13542 NA NA 76.23125000
## [989,] NA NA 85.04792 NA NA 75.22708333
## [990,] NA NA 79.53125 NA NA 74.22291667
## [991,] NA NA 75.87083 NA NA 73.21875000
## [992,] NA NA 72.72917 NA NA 72.21458333
## [993,] NA NA 66.05312 NA NA 71.21041667
## [994,] NA NA 64.90000 NA NA 70.20625000
## [995,] NA NA 64.29167 NA NA 69.20208333
## [996,] NA NA 61.45833 NA NA 68.19791667
## [997,] NA NA 60.82187 NA NA 67.19375000
## [998,] NA NA 61.56042 NA NA 66.18958333
## [999,] NA NA 62.72917 NA NA 65.18541667
## [1000,] NA NA 64.16458 NA NA 64.18125000
## [1001,] NA NA 65.72604 NA NA 63.17708333
## [1002,] NA NA 67.21667 NA NA 62.17291667
## [1003,] NA NA 67.49479 NA NA 61.16875000
## [1004,] NA NA 66.16562 NA NA 60.16458333
## [1005,] NA NA 64.50000 NA NA 59.16041667
## [1006,] NA NA 59.92187 NA NA 58.15625000
## [1007,] NA NA 59.96250 NA NA 57.15208333
## [1008,] NA NA 61.37292 NA NA 56.14791667
## [1009,] NA NA 61.93750 NA NA 55.14375000
## [1010,] NA NA 61.80000 NA NA 54.13958333
## [1011,] NA NA 59.24375 NA NA 53.13541667
## [1012,] NA NA 58.24375 NA NA 52.13125000
## [1013,] NA NA 57.11979 NA NA 51.12708333
## [1014,] NA NA 57.52500 NA NA 50.12291667
## [1015,] NA NA 56.69896 NA NA 49.11875000
## [1016,] NA NA 57.89271 NA NA 48.11458333
## [1017,] NA NA 61.40000 NA NA 47.11041667
## [1018,] NA NA 65.19583 NA NA 46.10625000
## [1019,] NA NA 67.52500 NA NA 45.10208333
## [1020,] NA NA 64.89792 NA NA 44.09791667
## [1021,] NA NA 60.31458 NA NA 43.09375000
## [1022,] NA NA 56.50521 NA NA 42.08958333
## [1023,] NA NA 55.44687 NA NA 41.08541667
## [1024,] NA NA 54.96250 NA NA 40.08125000
## [1025,] NA NA 55.53333 NA NA 39.07708333
## [1026,] NA NA 54.17708 NA NA 38.07291667
## [1027,] NA NA 51.09479 NA NA 37.06875000
## [1028,] NA NA 51.28646 NA NA 36.06458333
## [1029,] NA NA 50.02396 NA NA 35.06041667
## [1030,] NA NA 49.57292 NA NA 34.05625000
## [1031,] NA NA 48.60312 NA NA 33.05208333
## [1032,] NA NA 50.18021 NA NA 32.04791667
## [1033,] NA NA 50.66042 NA NA 31.04375000
## [1034,] NA NA 51.07083 NA NA 30.03958333
## [1035,] NA NA 51.09062 NA NA 29.03541667
## [1036,] NA NA 48.12500 NA NA 28.03125000
## [1037,] NA NA 47.16562 NA NA 27.02708333
## [1038,] NA NA 45.81771 NA NA 26.02291667
## [1039,] NA NA 44.90937 NA NA 25.01875000
## [1040,] NA NA 43.05729 NA NA 24.01458333
## [1041,] NA NA 41.63958 NA NA 23.01041667
## [1042,] NA NA 42.38437 NA NA 22.00625000
## [1043,] NA NA 43.56667 NA NA 21.00208333
## [1044,] NA NA 46.90729 NA NA 19.99791667
## [1045,] NA NA 48.22500 NA NA 18.99375000
## [1046,] NA NA 45.83750 NA NA 17.98958333
## [1047,] NA NA 44.36042 NA NA 16.98541667
## [1048,] NA NA 41.78854 NA NA 15.98125000
## [1049,] NA NA 42.90312 NA NA 14.97708333
## [1050,] NA NA 45.58437 NA NA 13.97291667
## [1051,] NA NA 48.81042 NA NA 12.96875000
## [1052,] NA NA 51.06562 NA NA 11.96458333
## [1053,] NA NA 49.93542 NA NA 10.96041667
## [1054,] NA NA 48.51146 NA NA 9.95625000
## [1055,] NA NA 46.12187 NA NA 8.95208333
## [1056,] NA NA 43.58542 NA NA 7.94791667
## [1057,] NA NA 42.60417 NA NA 6.94375000
## [1058,] NA NA 44.97292 NA NA 5.93958333
## [1059,] NA NA 45.84375 NA NA 4.93541667
## [1060,] NA NA 48.12083 NA NA 3.93125000
## [1061,] NA NA 53.44479 NA NA 2.92708333
## [1062,] NA NA 55.43125 NA NA 1.92291667
## [1063,] NA NA 59.64375 NA NA 0.91875000
## [1064,] NA NA 60.38021 NA NA -0.08541667
## [1065,] NA NA 56.98750 NA NA -1.08958333
## [1066,] NA NA 54.58125 NA NA -2.09375000
## [1067,] NA NA 49.97187 NA NA -3.09791667
## [1068,] NA NA 47.66979 NA NA -4.10208333
## [1069,] NA NA 46.00000 NA NA -5.10625000
## [1070,] NA NA 45.38437 NA NA -6.11041667
## [1071,] NA NA 48.04375 NA NA -7.11458333
## [1072,] NA NA 50.57604 NA NA -8.11875000
## [1073,] NA NA 51.50937 NA NA -9.12291667
## [1074,] NA NA 49.76146 NA NA -10.12708333
## [1075,] NA NA 47.07187 NA NA -11.13125000
## [1076,] NA NA 44.51354 NA NA -12.13541667
## [1077,] NA NA 45.16458 NA NA -13.13958333
## [1078,] NA NA 48.19167 NA NA -14.14375000
## [1079,] NA NA 48.64479 NA NA -15.14791667
## [1080,] NA NA 49.43750 NA NA -16.15208333
## [1081,] NA NA 48.83125 NA NA -17.15625000
## [1082,] NA NA 47.31875 NA NA -18.16041667
## [1083,] NA NA 47.11250 NA NA -19.16458333
## [1084,] NA NA 47.85417 NA NA -20.16875000
## [1085,] NA NA 49.96979 NA NA -21.17291667
## [1086,] NA NA 54.05104 NA NA -22.17708333
## [1087,] NA NA 60.04167 NA NA -23.18125000
## [1088,] NA NA 61.36875 NA NA -24.18541667
## [1089,] NA NA 60.81771 NA NA -25.18958333
## [1090,] NA NA 58.60937 NA NA -26.19375000
## [1091,] NA NA 56.03333 NA NA -27.19791667
## [1092,] NA NA 59.48854 NA NA -28.20208333
## [1093,] NA NA 66.26562 NA NA -29.20625000
## [1094,] NA NA 68.99479 NA NA -30.21041667
## [1095,] NA NA 72.04167 NA NA -31.21458333
## [1096,] NA NA 70.90833 NA NA -32.21875000
## [1097,] NA NA 67.60104 NA NA -33.22291667
## [1098,] NA NA 67.75625 NA NA -34.22708333
## [1099,] NA NA 64.76875 NA NA -35.23125000
## [1100,] NA NA 59.77187 NA NA -36.23541667
## [1101,] NA NA 58.37187 NA NA -37.23958333
## [1102,] NA NA 57.35625 NA NA -38.24375000
## [1103,] NA NA 58.16771 NA NA -39.24791667
## [1104,] NA NA 64.03021 NA NA -40.25208333
## [1105,] NA NA 66.22500 NA NA -41.25625000
## [1106,] NA NA 68.71667 NA NA -42.26041667
## [1107,] NA NA 69.06250 NA NA -43.26458333
## [1108,] NA NA 67.98437 NA NA -44.26875000
## [1109,] NA NA 64.80312 NA NA -45.27291667
## [1110,] NA NA 61.27500 NA NA -46.27708333
## [1111,] NA NA 57.44896 NA NA -47.28125000
## [1112,] NA NA 55.31250 NA NA -48.28541667
## [1113,] NA NA 54.78333 NA NA -49.28958333
## [1114,] NA NA 56.75521 NA NA -50.29375000
## [1115,] NA NA 58.83437 NA NA -51.29791667
## [1116,] NA NA 60.44479 NA NA -52.30208333
## [1117,] NA NA 61.65312 NA NA -53.30625000
## [1118,] NA NA 61.64375 NA NA -54.31041667
## [1119,] NA NA 64.10729 NA NA -55.31458333
## [1120,] NA NA 66.61562 NA NA -56.31875000
## [1121,] NA NA 69.35521 NA NA -57.32291667
## [1122,] NA NA 68.64687 NA NA -58.32708333
## [1123,] NA NA 68.08021 NA NA -59.33125000
## [1124,] NA NA 62.02708 NA NA -60.33541667
## [1125,] NA NA 57.82708 NA NA -61.33958333
## [1126,] NA NA 57.03229 NA NA -62.34375000
## [1127,] NA NA 53.83542 NA NA -63.34791667
## [1128,] NA NA 56.16562 NA NA -64.35208333
## [1129,] NA NA 58.21667 NA NA -65.35625000
## [1130,] NA NA 58.92812 NA NA -66.36041667
## [1131,] NA NA 62.35521 NA NA -67.36458333
## [1132,] NA NA 62.99896 NA NA -68.36875000
## [1133,] NA NA 64.68333 NA NA -69.37291667
## [1134,] NA NA 65.27187 NA NA -70.37708333
## [1135,] NA NA 62.94062 NA NA -71.38125000
## [1136,] NA NA 62.02187 NA NA -72.38541667
## [1137,] NA NA 59.91875 NA NA -73.38958333
## [1138,] NA NA 61.05833 NA NA -74.39375000
## [1139,] NA NA 66.09896 NA NA -75.39791667
## [1140,] NA NA 67.03437 NA NA -76.40208333
## [1141,] NA NA 66.86354 NA NA -77.40625000
## [1142,] NA NA 65.82396 NA NA -78.41041667
## [1143,] NA NA 61.20937 NA NA -79.41458333
## [1144,] NA NA 60.30312 NA NA -80.41875000
## [1145,] NA NA 61.12083 NA NA -81.42291667
## [1146,] NA NA 58.53437 NA NA -82.42708333
## [1147,] NA NA 59.01458 NA NA -83.43125000
## [1148,] NA NA 59.23854 NA NA -84.43541667
## [1149,] NA NA 56.47500 NA NA -85.43958333
## [1150,] NA NA 56.83333 NA NA -86.44375000
## [1151,] NA NA 58.57500 NA NA -87.44791667
## [1152,] NA NA 61.14792 NA NA -88.45208333
## [1153,] NA NA 65.01875 NA NA -89.45625000
## [1154,] NA NA 66.78958 NA NA -90.46041667
## [1155,] NA NA 66.77083 NA NA -91.46458333
## [1156,] NA NA 68.34583 NA NA -92.46875000
## [1157,] NA NA 70.70417 NA NA -93.47291667
## [1158,] NA NA 75.36875 NA NA -94.47708333
## [1159,] NA NA 78.81875 NA NA -95.48125000
## [1160,] NA NA 77.52708 NA NA -96.48541667
## [1161,] NA NA 76.55208 NA NA -97.48958333
## [1162,] NA NA 72.50937 NA NA -98.49375000
## [1163,] NA NA 72.07917 NA NA -99.49791667
## [1164,] NA NA 72.96458 NA NA -100.50208333
## [1165,] NA NA 73.67917 NA NA -101.50625000
## [1166,] NA NA 76.48125 NA NA -102.51041667
## [1167,] NA NA 73.99271 NA NA -103.51458333
## [1168,] NA NA 73.89792 NA NA -104.51875000
## [1169,] NA NA 72.45625 NA NA -105.52291667
## [1170,] NA NA 69.86771 NA NA -106.52708333
## [1171,] NA NA 68.37292 NA NA -107.53125000
## [1172,] NA NA 66.06562 NA NA -108.53541667
## [1173,] NA NA 65.20312 NA NA -109.53958333
## [1174,] NA NA 66.93125 NA NA -110.54375000
## [1175,] NA NA 70.48437 NA NA -111.54791667
## [1176,] NA NA 80.80312 NA NA -112.55208333
## [1177,] NA NA 86.77292 NA NA -113.55625000
## [1178,] NA NA 90.07396 NA NA -114.56041667
## [1179,] NA NA 87.15104 NA NA -115.56458333
## [1180,] NA NA 76.06458 NA NA -116.56875000
## [1181,] NA NA 68.54583 NA NA -117.57291667
## [1182,] NA NA 62.89896 NA NA -118.57708333Hasil pemulusan menggunakan metode DMA divisualisasikan sebagai berikut
ts.plot(data.ts, xlab="Date", ylab="Price", main= "DMA N=4 Data Harga Kopi Per Minggu")
points(data.ts)
lines(data.gab2[,3],col="green",lwd=2)
lines(data.gab2[,6],col="red",lwd=2)
legend("topleft",c("data aktual","data pemulusan","data peramalan"), lty=8, col=c("black","green","red"), cex=0.8)
Selanjutnya perhitungan akurasi dilakukan baik pada data latih maupun data uji. Perhitungan akurasi dilakukan dengan ukuran akurasi SSE, MSE dan MAPE.
#Menghitung nilai keakuratan data latih
error_train.dma = train_ma.ts-data.ramal2[1:length(train_ma.ts)]
SSE_train.dma = sum(error_train.dma[8:length(train_ma.ts)]^2)
MSE_train.dma = mean(error_train.dma[8:length(train_ma.ts)]^2)
MAPE_train.dma = mean(abs((error_train.dma[8:length(train_ma.ts)]/train_ma.ts[8:length(train_ma.ts)])*2360))
akurasi_train.dma <- matrix(c(SSE_train.dma, MSE_train.dma, MAPE_train.dma))
row.names(akurasi_train.dma)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasi_train.dma) <- c("Akurasi m = 4")
akurasi_train.dma## Akurasi m = 4
## SSE 71170.46458
## MSE 75.79389
## MAPE 115.25634Perhitungan akurasi pada data latih menggunakan nilai MAPE menghasilkan nilai MAPE yang kurang dari 236% sehingga dikategorikan sangat baik. Selanjutnya, perhitungan nilai akurasi dilakukan pada data uji.
#Menghitung nilai keakuratan data uji
error_test.dma = test_ma.ts-data.gab2[947:1182,6]
SSE_test.dma = sum(error_test.dma^2)
MSE_test.dma = mean(error_test.dma^2)
MAPE_test.dma = mean(abs((error_test.dma/test_ma.ts*2360)))
akurasi_test.dma <- matrix(c(SSE_test.dma, MSE_test.dma, MAPE_test.dma))
row.names(akurasi_test.dma)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasi_test.dma) <- c("Akurasi m = 4")
akurasi_test.dma## Akurasi m = 4
## SSE 7541835.086
## MSE 31956.928
## MAPE 2086.835Perhitungan akurasi menggunakan data latih menghasilkan nilai MAPE yang kurang dari 236% sehingga nilai akurasi ini dapat dikategorikan sebagai sangat baik.
Pada data latih, metode SMA lebih baik dibandingkan dengan metode DMA, sedangkan pada data uji, metode DMA lebih baik dibandingkan SMA
Single Exponential Smoothing & Double Exponential Smoothing
Pembagian Data
Pembagian data latih dan data uji dilakukan dengan perbandingan 80% data latih dan 20% data uji.
#membagi training dan testing
training<-data[1:946,]
training## # A tibble: 946 × 2
## Date Price
## <dttm> <dbl>
## 1 2000-01-07 00:00:00 114.
## 2 2000-01-14 00:00:00 113.
## 3 2000-01-21 00:00:00 111.
## 4 2000-01-28 00:00:00 115.
## 5 2000-02-04 00:00:00 113.
## 6 2000-02-11 00:00:00 109.
## 7 2000-02-18 00:00:00 104.
## 8 2000-02-25 00:00:00 98.8
## 9 2000-03-03 00:00:00 104.
## 10 2000-03-10 00:00:00 106.
## # ℹ 936 more rowstesting<-data[947:1182,]
testing## # A tibble: 236 × 2
## Date Price
## <dttm> <dbl>
## 1 2018-03-02 00:00:00 120.
## 2 2018-03-09 00:00:00 119.
## 3 2018-03-16 00:00:00 117.
## 4 2018-03-23 00:00:00 117.
## 5 2018-03-29 00:00:00 118.
## 6 2018-04-06 00:00:00 117.
## 7 2018-04-13 00:00:00 117.
## 8 2018-04-20 00:00:00 116.
## 9 2018-04-27 00:00:00 120.
## 10 2018-05-04 00:00:00 120.
## # ℹ 226 more rowstrain.ts <- ts(training$Price)
train.ts## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 946
## Frequency = 1
## [1] 114.15 112.55 111.20 114.70 112.90 108.80 104.30 98.80 104.35 106.10
## [11] 106.10 103.15 103.70 99.60 92.65 97.75 95.30 96.85 91.80 97.95
## [21] 99.20 95.55 91.85 87.25 87.05 84.85 80.80 89.15 96.65 87.40
## [31] 85.60 80.65 78.40 77.75 75.00 77.40 76.25 78.00 83.00 79.45
## [41] 81.05 84.15 75.60 73.60 74.15 68.55 68.30 67.00 63.65 62.90
## [51] 65.40 65.55 64.35 65.00 68.30 67.10 63.20 62.65 59.80 64.95
## [61] 63.30 61.70 59.00 60.10 60.30 58.10 57.60 57.15 60.95 63.65
## [71] 64.95 63.80 59.90 57.90 58.15 59.40 55.90 56.10 53.85 52.05
## [81] 53.75 51.30 50.40 48.40 54.35 50.95 50.50 48.50 49.05 48.30
## [91] 46.65 44.70 43.85 43.40 45.40 44.70 48.65 46.40 42.60 43.00
## [101] 43.80 46.65 46.20 48.55 49.55 47.40 45.90 45.45 44.55 44.10
## [111] 48.00 45.85 48.45 54.75 54.30 57.20 55.00 53.20 53.05 49.70
## [121] 49.00 47.50 48.40 51.40 51.90 49.15 46.45 47.10 46.50 48.15
## [131] 49.85 47.35 48.40 48.10 47.55 46.90 49.20 51.50 55.50 59.80
## [141] 56.05 55.65 56.00 57.35 62.60 68.55 64.00 67.85 66.40 66.80
## [151] 66.60 63.40 56.85 62.20 61.35 61.25 65.05 66.25 67.65 65.30
## [161] 65.80 62.65 61.60 56.85 58.65 57.70 61.30 58.25 60.80 60.45
## [171] 62.45 63.75 67.00 67.70 64.70 65.65 58.35 59.40 60.50 56.05
## [181] 58.40 60.50 60.20 62.30 60.85 65.05 63.70 60.10 60.30 61.45
## [191] 64.55 68.45 63.00 63.35 65.10 61.20 60.50 63.10 58.65 60.35
## [201] 59.50 56.65 57.75 61.90 63.00 64.30 63.25 64.95 68.80 71.15
## [211] 74.45 75.50 71.80 74.00 70.30 75.05 73.05 74.65 75.55 71.95
## [221] 73.40 72.55 70.05 67.95 67.15 68.10 70.40 72.35 85.55 83.00
## [231] 83.25 75.70 71.60 70.05 68.85 69.75 69.85 66.45 67.05 65.60
## [241] 66.55 70.00 68.30 70.40 75.35 83.00 80.15 77.20 74.65 75.10
## [251] 74.40 78.30 80.50 87.25 88.90 94.90 94.80 102.30 105.10 103.75
## [261] 96.25 100.10 103.25 105.30 110.50 113.45 118.05 115.25 121.85 134.45
## [271] 131.60 120.90 123.95 116.85 112.55 124.80 125.15 121.90 119.00 117.00
## [281] 121.90 125.55 113.00 107.60 105.45 102.10 104.15 103.25 99.45 103.15
## [291] 105.35 104.90 96.10 91.65 100.00 92.20 88.20 89.00 93.45 94.85
## [301] 99.65 103.45 98.35 103.90 106.95 96.80 97.40 90.75 92.75 94.35
## [311] 102.60 107.10 119.55 119.95 118.40 124.30 117.60 115.10 109.45 110.95
## [321] 112.10 105.70 103.65 105.30 107.00 108.35 105.25 112.00 107.20 106.50
## [331] 101.80 100.65 98.10 101.25 95.90 95.25 95.30 99.50 98.40 97.00
## [341] 95.60 99.40 105.45 104.30 103.25 106.20 103.40 102.45 98.65 104.45
## [351] 107.65 103.90 104.05 102.05 108.00 112.45 115.85 113.10 115.55 123.20
## [361] 121.85 121.55 125.40 126.20 120.45 120.30 119.70 116.30 118.35 114.75
## [371] 113.20 119.25 114.35 111.50 109.45 113.35 109.25 110.85 112.85 107.70
## [381] 103.75 103.00 102.80 109.50 112.90 117.40 114.85 114.70 113.60 111.00
## [391] 107.25 107.75 114.00 112.70 117.65 120.60 115.55 114.65 112.65 113.75
## [401] 118.05 129.90 128.65 137.00 139.30 125.00 121.45 118.90 121.75 124.90
## [411] 123.45 125.95 127.75 130.75 134.20 133.10 132.70 136.30 133.10 131.45
## [421] 139.10 147.20 149.85 160.15 164.60 148.75 150.05 130.90 130.40 131.90
## [431] 130.85 135.25 130.45 128.55 136.00 138.00 134.00 133.90 135.85 134.40
## [441] 143.95 150.15 149.55 140.05 135.65 137.30 140.15 135.80 132.85 140.25
## [451] 141.90 138.85 135.10 133.10 134.15 122.05 115.35 115.60 108.65 113.00
## [461] 112.10 110.95 108.95 114.10 101.60 109.85 110.95 108.40 110.90 116.90
## [471] 115.80 119.65 118.90 119.55 112.35 108.90 109.45 105.30 108.30 116.20
## [481] 115.85 118.40 119.30 111.85 119.00 119.85 125.70 127.55 135.00 137.40
## [491] 133.85 129.55 116.70 116.75 115.05 112.30 116.25 123.95 127.85 137.90
## [501] 128.95 123.70 121.10 122.85 125.30 134.80 127.70 129.70 135.65 142.88
## [511] 136.20 135.38 138.23 131.10 135.50 138.43 141.15 143.05 145.50 139.80
## [521] 135.93 145.35 140.75 139.60 131.95 128.80 132.75 134.75 129.05 128.00
## [531] 130.15 130.30 135.85 137.40 132.70 129.10 131.80 135.20 133.00 134.25
## [541] 132.40 134.25 133.75 144.95 160.25 167.00 164.05 163.23 166.55 165.28
## [551] 175.33 167.80 176.25 186.28 179.68 186.20 189.85 187.85 180.60 181.10
## [561] 182.15 186.40 198.85 203.45 205.15 200.45 209.85 202.15 204.50 208.98
## [571] 225.25 236.67 240.50 230.70 234.60 240.32 245.00 249.30 251.95 271.65
## [581] 267.70 272.90 273.70 276.80 268.60 259.90 274.95 288.10 294.25 299.35
## [591] 287.05 269.30 259.15 263.70 270.95 264.95 249.55 249.00 263.45 263.15
## [601] 252.55 241.50 239.55 238.00 240.35 266.15 278.90 289.20 271.25 263.00
## [611] 231.45 228.90 224.35 239.55 244.85 235.15 230.20 233.95 234.20 229.60
## [621] 227.15 227.05 210.95 217.88 226.85 221.75 225.25 225.40 217.35 215.95
## [631] 215.30 200.05 203.25 201.65 185.60 181.35 178.75 182.45 183.00 179.20
## [641] 177.70 175.00 173.50 176.55 177.70 167.80 157.50 155.60 150.05 155.15
## [651] 170.85 175.90 184.45 186.95 173.70 173.80 166.25 160.30 163.15 164.55
## [661] 162.70 180.80 173.30 173.50 167.77 162.35 161.65 157.75 154.70 149.90
## [671] 147.30 142.15 149.88 142.10 137.40 146.60 146.85 147.35 153.35 155.68
## [681] 148.30 147.95 141.05 136.95 143.10 142.90 143.35 136.50 135.30 137.15
## [691] 140.15 135.25 141.65 133.90 140.30 143.80 135.60 127.25 127.05 126.95
## [701] 122.25 118.70 120.00 120.95 119.15 122.60 122.25 118.25 122.90 120.50
## [711] 113.05 112.10 113.95 115.55 114.65 113.70 114.40 116.70 114.65 109.10
## [721] 105.55 104.05 105.75 107.28 110.25 105.80 114.50 115.30 116.35 116.35
## [731] 120.65 117.15 114.40 125.20 135.70 139.90 168.55 179.80 196.05 197.85
## [741] 171.15 180.60 185.00 201.20 201.20 204.75 200.60 184.85 182.50 181.90
## [751] 177.50 172.10 173.70 173.25 170.45 172.02 158.95 170.70 179.15 192.13
## [761] 180.85 188.75 181.60 195.75 192.85 179.65 178.00 186.05 206.50 220.40
## [771] 210.65 191.50 188.00 182.40 192.00 189.65 187.48 181.10 174.13 174.88
## [781] 169.07 161.05 180.05 171.00 162.45 161.90 166.85 163.20 148.65 136.75
## [791] 136.50 126.45 143.35 138.20 140.90 135.10 138.70 141.15 133.45 132.90
## [801] 137.20 126.95 126.15 135.10 132.05 127.15 131.70 125.60 122.95 127.00
## [811] 122.25 125.25 127.80 137.50 121.90 120.45 115.85 113.35 113.35 122.70
## [821] 124.30 131.60 125.85 118.45 120.95 117.75 112.15 121.90 121.00 124.00
## [831] 118.10 118.45 119.70 126.70 119.00 114.90 116.00 116.35 120.40 115.55
## [841] 115.75 113.00 118.80 124.40 133.85 127.55 127.25 120.45 122.95 122.75
## [851] 120.85 123.45 128.80 124.70 121.30 127.10 136.95 140.75 134.35 144.85
## [861] 142.75 145.70 141.90 146.20 142.50 136.85 138.80 143.90 150.10 149.95
## [871] 147.10 151.40 151.55 148.00 155.40 156.10 165.50 171.35 159.45 157.85
## [881] 152.30 141.20 135.55 138.20 136.15 137.05 142.85 149.30 153.20 152.40
## [891] 146.25 145.75 147.80 144.40 141.25 139.65 140.80 137.60 139.30 140.05
## [901] 138.90 129.85 131.05 133.10 132.60 132.10 131.20 125.55 126.55 123.55
## [911] 119.95 124.05 126.55 131.70 136.55 137.85 140.15 140.30 128.05 130.20
## [921] 127.75 129.40 140.00 134.45 128.05 130.00 126.45 125.25 126.60 123.95
## [931] 127.55 123.80 124.80 127.55 120.60 116.95 120.40 126.20 128.45 122.25
## [941] 121.25 125.15 120.40 121.85 117.95 119.45test.ts <- ts(testing$Price)
test.ts## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 236
## Frequency = 1
## [1] 120.35 118.85 116.95 117.20 118.15 117.45 117.30 115.75 120.35 120.45
## [11] 115.25 113.95 120.40 122.75 117.25 115.20 113.85 111.50 111.25 107.05
## [21] 110.65 110.45 107.75 107.00 101.20 100.55 98.10 98.80 95.45 99.90
## [31] 102.45 108.95 116.55 122.10 119.65 120.05 113.85 112.60 107.15 103.25
## [41] 98.80 96.95 99.70 100.95 101.60 103.85 104.95 106.80 103.70 102.60
## [51] 97.95 96.45 96.95 95.30 94.60 93.90 94.50 93.20 90.40 90.20
## [61] 92.70 89.25 89.45 87.35 93.30 104.60 100.95 96.00 99.80 108.25
## [71] 109.45 105.20 105.85 99.75 98.15 97.30 92.85 92.60 93.60 93.85
## [81] 99.50 98.40 100.90 99.00 93.70 95.70 99.45 104.00 109.45 106.15
## [91] 114.60 118.55 123.70 129.45 130.70 132.50 126.35 118.95 112.15 110.15
## [101] 102.65 98.35 109.10 108.85 110.10 105.60 107.05 119.70 115.85 114.90
## [111] 118.60 116.05 105.20 104.45 110.10 104.80 103.60 96.30 98.90 95.20
## [121] 93.75 95.65 102.25 96.15 101.05 108.40 118.95 115.45 114.70 120.10
## [131] 127.10 134.80 133.35 113.60 113.65 108.95 111.55 107.25 105.60 104.40
## [141] 106.95 109.25 115.50 121.70 115.35 119.10 123.70 125.95 128.25 123.70
## [151] 128.15 124.05 122.95 124.50 121.15 127.50 136.85 128.75 132.45 125.45
## [161] 128.50 121.60 127.25 129.15 136.85 139.95 152.30 144.25 150.10 162.35
## [171] 161.65 157.45 149.90 157.25 152.55 151.30 161.20 189.00 179.55 176.00
## [181] 182.75 178.25 189.50 190.55 185.60 187.30 194.35 204.05 201.35 203.40
## [191] 199.85 203.95 203.55 219.70 233.30 243.85 244.05 232.70 235.90 231.20
## [201] 226.10 238.45 239.65 237.90 235.90 241.85 251.65 246.85 240.05 224.15
## [211] 222.95 220.30 221.85 228.40 231.65 223.60 227.30 222.55 210.45 212.90
## [221] 215.85 229.45 232.40 228.90 227.65 226.60 228.45 222.90 203.70 206.70
## [231] 217.20 209.45 226.60 215.95 242.00 228.42Eksplorasi
Eksplorasi dilakukan dengan membuat plot data deret waktu untuk keseluruhan data, data latih, dan data uji.
#eksplorasi data
plot(data.ts, col="black",main="Plot semua data")
points(data.ts)
plot(train.ts, col="red",main="Plot data latih")
points(train.ts)
plot(test.ts, col="blue",main="Plot data uji")
points(test.ts)
#Eksplorasi dengan GGPLOT
library(ggplot2)
ggplot() +
geom_line(data = training, aes(x = Date, y = Price, col = "Data Latih")) +
geom_line(data = testing, aes(x = Date, y = Price, col = "Data Uji")) +
labs(x = "Date", y = "Price", color = "Legend") +
scale_colour_manual(name="Keterangan:", breaks = c("Data Latih", "Data Uji"),
values = c("blue", "red")) +
theme_bw() + theme(legend.position = "bottom",
plot.caption = element_text(hjust=0.5, size=12))
SES
#Cara 1 (fungsi ses)
ses.1 <- ses(train.ts, h = 236, alpha = 0.2)
plot(ses.1)
ses.1## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 121.4478 109.55854 133.3370 103.26476 139.6308
## 948 121.4478 109.32308 133.5725 102.90466 139.9909
## 949 121.4478 109.09211 133.8034 102.55143 140.3441
## 950 121.4478 108.86539 134.0302 102.20468 140.6909
## 951 121.4478 108.64267 134.2529 101.86406 141.0315
## 952 121.4478 108.42377 134.4718 101.52928 141.3663
## 953 121.4478 108.20848 134.6871 101.20002 141.6955
## 954 121.4478 107.99664 134.8989 100.87604 142.0195
## 955 121.4478 107.78808 135.1075 100.55708 142.3385
## 956 121.4478 107.58266 135.3129 100.24291 142.6526
## 957 121.4478 107.38024 135.5153 99.93334 142.9622
## 958 121.4478 107.18069 135.7148 99.62815 143.2674
## 959 121.4478 106.98389 135.9116 99.32718 143.5684
## 960 121.4478 106.78974 136.1058 99.03024 143.8653
## 961 121.4478 106.59812 136.2974 98.73719 144.1583
## 962 121.4478 106.40895 136.4866 98.44787 144.4477
## 963 121.4478 106.22212 136.6734 98.16215 144.7334
## 964 121.4478 106.03756 136.8580 97.87989 145.0156
## 965 121.4478 105.85519 137.0404 97.60097 145.2946
## 966 121.4478 105.67492 137.2206 97.32528 145.5703
## 967 121.4478 105.49669 137.3988 97.05270 145.8428
## 968 121.4478 105.32043 137.5751 96.78313 146.1124
## 969 121.4478 105.14607 137.7495 96.51648 146.3791
## 970 121.4478 104.97356 137.9220 96.25265 146.6429
## 971 121.4478 104.80284 138.0927 95.99155 146.9040
## 972 121.4478 104.63385 138.2617 95.73310 147.1624
## 973 121.4478 104.46655 138.4290 95.47723 147.4183
## 974 121.4478 104.30087 138.5947 95.22385 147.6717
## 975 121.4478 104.13678 138.7588 94.97290 147.9226
## 976 121.4478 103.97424 138.9213 94.72431 148.1712
## 977 121.4478 103.81319 139.0824 94.47800 148.4175
## 978 121.4478 103.65359 139.2419 94.23393 148.6616
## 979 121.4478 103.49542 139.4001 93.99202 148.9035
## 980 121.4478 103.33863 139.5569 93.75223 149.1433
## 981 121.4478 103.18318 139.7124 93.51449 149.3810
## 982 121.4478 103.02905 139.8665 93.27877 149.6168
## 983 121.4478 102.87619 140.0193 93.04499 149.8505
## 984 121.4478 102.72459 140.1710 92.81313 150.0824
## 985 121.4478 102.57420 140.3213 92.58313 150.3124
## 986 121.4478 102.42500 140.4705 92.35495 150.5406
## 987 121.4478 102.27696 140.6186 92.12854 150.7670
## 988 121.4478 102.13005 140.7655 91.90387 150.9917
## 989 121.4478 101.98425 140.9113 91.68089 151.2146
## 990 121.4478 101.83954 141.0560 91.45957 151.4360
## 991 121.4478 101.69589 141.1996 91.23988 151.6557
## 992 121.4478 101.55328 141.3423 91.02177 151.8738
## 993 121.4478 101.41168 141.4839 90.80521 152.0903
## 994 121.4478 101.27107 141.6245 90.59017 152.3054
## 995 121.4478 101.13144 141.7641 90.37662 152.5189
## 996 121.4478 100.99276 141.9028 90.16453 152.7310
## 997 121.4478 100.85501 142.0405 89.95387 152.9417
## 998 121.4478 100.71818 142.1774 89.74460 153.1509
## 999 121.4478 100.58225 142.3133 89.53671 153.3588
## 1000 121.4478 100.44720 142.4483 89.33016 153.5654
## 1001 121.4478 100.31301 142.5825 89.12494 153.7706
## 1002 121.4478 100.17966 142.7159 88.92101 153.9745
## 1003 121.4478 100.04715 142.8484 88.71834 154.1772
## 1004 121.4478 99.91545 142.9801 88.51693 154.3786
## 1005 121.4478 99.78455 143.1110 88.31674 154.5788
## 1006 121.4478 99.65444 143.2411 88.11775 154.7778
## 1007 121.4478 99.52511 143.3704 87.91995 154.9756
## 1008 121.4478 99.39653 143.4990 87.72330 155.1722
## 1009 121.4478 99.26869 143.6268 87.52780 155.3677
## 1010 121.4478 99.14159 143.7539 87.33341 155.5621
## 1011 121.4478 99.01521 143.8803 87.14013 155.7554
## 1012 121.4478 98.88953 144.0060 86.94793 155.9476
## 1013 121.4478 98.76456 144.1310 86.75679 156.1387
## 1014 121.4478 98.64026 144.2553 86.56670 156.3288
## 1015 121.4478 98.51665 144.3789 86.37764 156.5179
## 1016 121.4478 98.39369 144.5018 86.18960 156.7059
## 1017 121.4478 98.27139 144.6242 86.00255 156.8930
## 1018 121.4478 98.14972 144.7458 85.81648 157.0791
## 1019 121.4478 98.02869 144.8668 85.63139 157.2642
## 1020 121.4478 97.90829 144.9872 85.44724 157.4483
## 1021 121.4478 97.78849 145.1070 85.26403 157.6315
## 1022 121.4478 97.66930 145.2262 85.08174 157.8138
## 1023 121.4478 97.55071 145.3448 84.90036 157.9952
## 1024 121.4478 97.43269 145.4628 84.71988 158.1757
## 1025 121.4478 97.31526 145.5803 84.54028 158.3553
## 1026 121.4478 97.19840 145.6971 84.36155 158.5340
## 1027 121.4478 97.08209 145.8134 84.18368 158.7119
## 1028 121.4478 96.96634 145.9292 84.00665 158.8889
## 1029 121.4478 96.85113 146.0444 83.83046 159.0651
## 1030 121.4478 96.73646 146.1591 83.65509 159.2405
## 1031 121.4478 96.62232 146.2732 83.48052 159.4150
## 1032 121.4478 96.50870 146.3868 83.30676 159.5888
## 1033 121.4478 96.39560 146.4999 83.13378 159.7618
## 1034 121.4478 96.28300 146.6125 82.96158 159.9340
## 1035 121.4478 96.17091 146.7246 82.79015 160.1054
## 1036 121.4478 96.05931 146.8362 82.61948 160.2761
## 1037 121.4478 95.94820 146.9473 82.44955 160.4460
## 1038 121.4478 95.83758 147.0580 82.28036 160.6152
## 1039 121.4478 95.72742 147.1681 82.11190 160.7836
## 1040 121.4478 95.61774 147.2778 81.94415 160.9514
## 1041 121.4478 95.50852 147.3870 81.77712 161.1184
## 1042 121.4478 95.39976 147.4958 81.61078 161.2848
## 1043 121.4478 95.29146 147.6041 81.44514 161.4504
## 1044 121.4478 95.18359 147.7119 81.28018 161.6154
## 1045 121.4478 95.07617 147.8194 81.11589 161.7796
## 1046 121.4478 94.96919 147.9263 80.95228 161.9433
## 1047 121.4478 94.86263 148.0329 80.78931 162.1062
## 1048 121.4478 94.75651 148.1390 80.62701 162.2685
## 1049 121.4478 94.65080 148.2447 80.46534 162.4302
## 1050 121.4478 94.54550 148.3500 80.30431 162.5912
## 1051 121.4478 94.44062 148.4549 80.14390 162.7516
## 1052 121.4478 94.33615 148.5594 79.98412 162.9114
## 1053 121.4478 94.23207 148.6635 79.82495 163.0706
## 1054 121.4478 94.12839 148.7671 79.66639 163.2292
## 1055 121.4478 94.02510 148.8704 79.50842 163.3871
## 1056 121.4478 93.92220 148.9733 79.35105 163.5445
## 1057 121.4478 93.81969 149.0759 79.19426 163.7013
## 1058 121.4478 93.71755 149.1780 79.03806 163.8575
## 1059 121.4478 93.61579 149.2798 78.88243 164.0131
## 1060 121.4478 93.51440 149.3811 78.72736 164.1682
## 1061 121.4478 93.41337 149.4822 78.57286 164.3227
## 1062 121.4478 93.31271 149.5828 78.41891 164.4766
## 1063 121.4478 93.21240 149.6831 78.26550 164.6300
## 1064 121.4478 93.11246 149.7831 78.11265 164.7829
## 1065 121.4478 93.01286 149.8827 77.96033 164.9352
## 1066 121.4478 92.91361 149.9819 77.80854 165.0870
## 1067 121.4478 92.81470 150.0808 77.65727 165.2383
## 1068 121.4478 92.71614 150.1794 77.50653 165.3890
## 1069 121.4478 92.61791 150.2776 77.35630 165.5392
## 1070 121.4478 92.52002 150.3755 77.20659 165.6889
## 1071 121.4478 92.42245 150.4731 77.05738 165.8382
## 1072 121.4478 92.32521 150.5703 76.90866 165.9869
## 1073 121.4478 92.22830 150.6672 76.76045 166.1351
## 1074 121.4478 92.13171 150.7638 76.61272 166.2828
## 1075 121.4478 92.03543 150.8601 76.46548 166.4301
## 1076 121.4478 91.93947 150.9561 76.31872 166.5768
## 1077 121.4478 91.84382 151.0517 76.17243 166.7231
## 1078 121.4478 91.74847 151.1471 76.02662 166.8689
## 1079 121.4478 91.65344 151.2421 75.88127 167.0143
## 1080 121.4478 91.55870 151.3368 75.73638 167.1592
## 1081 121.4478 91.46426 151.4313 75.59195 167.3036
## 1082 121.4478 91.37012 151.5254 75.44798 167.4476
## 1083 121.4478 91.27628 151.6193 75.30445 167.5911
## 1084 121.4478 91.18272 151.7128 75.16137 167.7342
## 1085 121.4478 91.08945 151.8061 75.01873 167.8768
## 1086 121.4478 90.99647 151.8991 74.87653 168.0190
## 1087 121.4478 90.90378 151.9918 74.73476 168.1608
## 1088 121.4478 90.81136 152.0842 74.59342 168.3021
## 1089 121.4478 90.71922 152.1763 74.45251 168.4430
## 1090 121.4478 90.62735 152.2682 74.31201 168.5835
## 1091 121.4478 90.53576 152.3598 74.17193 168.7236
## 1092 121.4478 90.44444 152.4511 74.03227 168.8633
## 1093 121.4478 90.35339 152.5421 73.89302 169.0025
## 1094 121.4478 90.26260 152.6329 73.75417 169.1414
## 1095 121.4478 90.17208 152.7235 73.61573 169.2798
## 1096 121.4478 90.08182 152.8137 73.47768 169.4179
## 1097 121.4478 89.99181 152.9037 73.34004 169.5555
## 1098 121.4478 89.90207 152.9935 73.20278 169.6928
## 1099 121.4478 89.81258 153.0830 73.06592 169.8296
## 1100 121.4478 89.72334 153.1722 72.92944 169.9661
## 1101 121.4478 89.63435 153.2612 72.79334 170.1022
## 1102 121.4478 89.54561 153.3499 72.65762 170.2379
## 1103 121.4478 89.45711 153.4384 72.52228 170.3733
## 1104 121.4478 89.36886 153.5267 72.38732 170.5082
## 1105 121.4478 89.28086 153.6147 72.25272 170.6428
## 1106 121.4478 89.19309 153.7025 72.11849 170.7770
## 1107 121.4478 89.10556 153.7900 71.98462 170.9109
## 1108 121.4478 89.01826 153.8773 71.85112 171.0444
## 1109 121.4478 88.93120 153.9643 71.71798 171.1776
## 1110 121.4478 88.84438 154.0512 71.58519 171.3104
## 1111 121.4478 88.75778 154.1378 71.45275 171.4428
## 1112 121.4478 88.67141 154.2241 71.32066 171.5749
## 1113 121.4478 88.58527 154.3103 71.18892 171.7066
## 1114 121.4478 88.49936 154.3962 71.05752 171.8380
## 1115 121.4478 88.41367 154.4819 70.92647 171.9691
## 1116 121.4478 88.32820 154.5673 70.79575 172.0998
## 1117 121.4478 88.24295 154.6526 70.66538 172.2302
## 1118 121.4478 88.15792 154.7376 70.53533 172.3602
## 1119 121.4478 88.07310 154.8224 70.40562 172.4899
## 1120 121.4478 87.98850 154.9070 70.27623 172.6193
## 1121 121.4478 87.90411 154.9914 70.14718 172.7484
## 1122 121.4478 87.81994 155.0756 70.01844 172.8771
## 1123 121.4478 87.73597 155.1596 69.89003 173.0055
## 1124 121.4478 87.65222 155.2433 69.76193 173.1336
## 1125 121.4478 87.56867 155.3269 69.63416 173.2614
## 1126 121.4478 87.48533 155.4102 69.50669 173.3888
## 1127 121.4478 87.40219 155.4934 69.37954 173.5160
## 1128 121.4478 87.31925 155.5763 69.25270 173.6428
## 1129 121.4478 87.23651 155.6590 69.12617 173.7694
## 1130 121.4478 87.15398 155.7416 68.99994 173.8956
## 1131 121.4478 87.07164 155.8239 68.87401 174.0215
## 1132 121.4478 86.98950 155.9060 68.74839 174.1471
## 1133 121.4478 86.90755 155.9880 68.62306 174.2725
## 1134 121.4478 86.82580 156.0697 68.49803 174.3975
## 1135 121.4478 86.74424 156.1513 68.37330 174.5222
## 1136 121.4478 86.66287 156.2327 68.24886 174.6467
## 1137 121.4478 86.58169 156.3138 68.12471 174.7708
## 1138 121.4478 86.50070 156.3948 68.00084 174.8947
## 1139 121.4478 86.41990 156.4756 67.87727 175.0183
## 1140 121.4478 86.33928 156.5563 67.75397 175.1416
## 1141 121.4478 86.25885 156.6367 67.63096 175.2646
## 1142 121.4478 86.17860 156.7169 67.50823 175.3873
## 1143 121.4478 86.09854 156.7970 67.38578 175.5098
## 1144 121.4478 86.01865 156.8769 67.26361 175.6319
## 1145 121.4478 85.93895 156.9566 67.14171 175.7538
## 1146 121.4478 85.85942 157.0361 67.02008 175.8755
## 1147 121.4478 85.78007 157.1155 66.89873 175.9968
## 1148 121.4478 85.70089 157.1946 66.77764 176.1179
## 1149 121.4478 85.62190 157.2736 66.65682 176.2387
## 1150 121.4478 85.54307 157.3525 66.53627 176.3593
## 1151 121.4478 85.46442 157.4311 66.41598 176.4796
## 1152 121.4478 85.38594 157.5096 66.29596 176.5996
## 1153 121.4478 85.30763 157.5879 66.17619 176.7193
## 1154 121.4478 85.22949 157.6660 66.05669 176.8389
## 1155 121.4478 85.15151 157.7440 65.93744 176.9581
## 1156 121.4478 85.07371 157.8218 65.81844 177.0771
## 1157 121.4478 84.99607 157.8995 65.69971 177.1958
## 1158 121.4478 84.91859 157.9769 65.58122 177.3143
## 1159 121.4478 84.84128 158.0543 65.46298 177.4326
## 1160 121.4478 84.76414 158.1314 65.34500 177.5505
## 1161 121.4478 84.68715 158.2084 65.22726 177.6683
## 1162 121.4478 84.61033 158.2852 65.10976 177.7858
## 1163 121.4478 84.53366 158.3619 64.99251 177.9030
## 1164 121.4478 84.45716 158.4384 64.87551 178.0200
## 1165 121.4478 84.38081 158.5147 64.75874 178.1368
## 1166 121.4478 84.30462 158.5909 64.64222 178.2533
## 1167 121.4478 84.22858 158.6670 64.52593 178.3696
## 1168 121.4478 84.15270 158.7428 64.40988 178.4857
## 1169 121.4478 84.07697 158.8186 64.29407 178.6015
## 1170 121.4478 84.00140 158.8941 64.17849 178.7170
## 1171 121.4478 83.92598 158.9696 64.06315 178.8324
## 1172 121.4478 83.85071 159.0448 63.94803 178.9475
## 1173 121.4478 83.77559 159.1199 63.83315 179.0624
## 1174 121.4478 83.70062 159.1949 63.71849 179.1770
## 1175 121.4478 83.62580 159.2697 63.60406 179.2915
## 1176 121.4478 83.55113 159.3444 63.48986 179.4057
## 1177 121.4478 83.47660 159.4189 63.37588 179.5197
## 1178 121.4478 83.40222 159.4933 63.26213 179.6334
## 1179 121.4478 83.32799 159.5676 63.14859 179.7469
## 1180 121.4478 83.25390 159.6416 63.03528 179.8603
## 1181 121.4478 83.17995 159.7156 62.92219 179.9733
## 1182 121.4478 83.10614 159.7894 62.80931 180.0862ses.2<- ses(train.ts, h = 236, alpha = 0.7)
plot(ses.2)
ses.2## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 119.3427 111.52034 127.1650 107.37945408 131.3059
## 948 119.3427 109.79430 128.8910 104.73970605 133.9456
## 949 119.3427 108.33568 130.3496 102.50893693 136.1764
## 950 119.3427 107.04892 131.6364 100.54100578 138.1443
## 951 119.3427 105.88463 132.8007 98.76038193 139.9249
## 952 119.3427 104.81335 133.8720 97.12199080 141.5633
## 953 119.3427 103.81580 134.8695 95.59637379 143.0889
## 954 119.3427 102.87858 135.8067 94.16302382 144.5223
## 955 119.3427 101.99191 136.6934 92.80698500 145.8783
## 956 119.3427 101.14841 137.5369 91.51695216 147.1684
## 957 119.3427 100.34231 138.3430 90.28413308 148.4012
## 958 119.3427 99.56905 139.1163 89.10152979 149.5838
## 959 119.3427 98.82491 139.8604 87.96346425 150.7219
## 960 119.3427 98.10683 140.5785 86.86525408 151.8201
## 961 119.3427 97.41224 141.2731 85.80298401 152.8823
## 962 119.3427 96.73900 141.9463 84.77334073 153.9120
## 963 119.3427 96.08523 142.6001 83.77349070 154.9118
## 964 119.3427 95.44935 143.2360 82.80098824 155.8843
## 965 119.3427 94.82995 143.8554 81.85370503 156.8316
## 966 119.3427 94.22582 144.4595 80.92977526 157.7555
## 967 119.3427 93.63589 145.0494 80.02755242 158.6578
## 968 119.3427 93.05920 145.6261 79.14557485 159.5397
## 969 119.3427 92.49489 146.1904 78.28253793 160.4028
## 970 119.3427 91.94220 146.7431 77.43727140 161.2480
## 971 119.3427 91.40044 147.2849 76.60872075 162.0766
## 972 119.3427 90.86899 147.8163 75.79593183 162.8894
## 973 119.3427 90.34727 148.3381 74.99803796 163.6873
## 974 119.3427 89.83478 148.8505 74.21424906 164.4711
## 975 119.3427 89.33104 149.3543 73.44384254 165.2415
## 976 119.3427 88.83561 149.8497 72.68615548 165.9992
## 977 119.3427 88.34810 150.3372 71.94057793 166.7447
## 978 119.3427 87.86815 150.8172 71.20654721 167.4788
## 979 119.3427 87.39540 151.2899 70.48354290 168.2018
## 980 119.3427 86.92955 151.7558 69.77108252 168.9142
## 981 119.3427 86.47030 152.2150 69.06871780 169.6166
## 982 119.3427 86.01737 152.6679 68.37603136 170.3093
## 983 119.3427 85.57052 153.1148 67.69263382 170.9927
## 984 119.3427 85.12951 153.5558 67.01816120 171.6672
## 985 119.3427 84.69411 153.9912 66.35227271 172.3330
## 986 119.3427 84.26411 154.4212 65.69464871 172.9907
## 987 119.3427 83.83932 154.8460 65.04498892 173.6403
## 988 119.3427 83.41955 155.2658 64.40301079 174.2823
## 989 119.3427 83.00464 155.6807 63.76844813 174.9169
## 990 119.3427 82.59440 156.0909 63.14104974 175.5443
## 991 119.3427 82.18870 156.4966 62.52057833 176.1647
## 992 119.3427 81.78738 156.8979 61.90680938 176.7785
## 993 119.3427 81.39030 157.2950 61.29953029 177.3858
## 994 119.3427 80.99733 157.6880 60.69853944 177.9868
## 995 119.3427 80.60835 158.0770 60.10364544 178.5817
## 996 119.3427 80.22324 158.4621 59.51466641 179.1707
## 997 119.3427 79.84188 158.8434 58.93142936 179.7539
## 998 119.3427 79.46417 159.2212 58.35376956 180.3316
## 999 119.3427 79.09000 159.5953 57.78153000 180.9038
## 1000 119.3427 78.71928 159.9660 57.21456090 181.4708
## 1001 119.3427 78.35191 160.3334 56.65271928 182.0326
## 1002 119.3427 77.98781 160.6975 56.09586848 182.5895
## 1003 119.3427 77.62688 161.0584 55.54387782 183.1414
## 1004 119.3427 77.26905 161.4163 54.99662222 183.6887
## 1005 119.3427 76.91423 161.7711 54.45398188 184.2313
## 1006 119.3427 76.56236 162.1230 53.91584196 184.7695
## 1007 119.3427 76.21336 162.4720 53.38209232 185.3032
## 1008 119.3427 75.86716 162.8182 52.85262722 185.8327
## 1009 119.3427 75.52370 163.1616 52.32734511 186.3580
## 1010 119.3427 75.18291 163.5024 51.80614839 186.8792
## 1011 119.3427 74.84473 163.8406 51.28894320 187.3964
## 1012 119.3427 74.50910 164.1762 50.77563921 187.9097
## 1013 119.3427 74.17596 164.5094 50.26614944 188.4192
## 1014 119.3427 73.84526 164.8401 49.76039012 188.9249
## 1015 119.3427 73.51695 165.1684 49.25828049 189.4270
## 1016 119.3427 73.19097 165.4943 48.75974265 189.9256
## 1017 119.3427 72.86728 165.8180 48.26470145 190.4206
## 1018 119.3427 72.54583 166.1395 47.77308432 190.9122
## 1019 119.3427 72.22657 166.4587 47.28482120 191.4005
## 1020 119.3427 71.90946 166.7759 46.79984435 191.8855
## 1021 119.3427 71.59446 167.0909 46.31808829 192.3672
## 1022 119.3427 71.28152 167.4038 45.83948970 192.8458
## 1023 119.3427 70.97061 167.7147 45.36398730 193.3213
## 1024 119.3427 70.66168 168.0236 44.89152177 193.7938
## 1025 119.3427 70.35470 168.3306 44.42203564 194.2633
## 1026 119.3427 70.04963 168.6357 43.95547326 194.7298
## 1027 119.3427 69.74644 168.9389 43.49178067 195.1935
## 1028 119.3427 69.44509 169.2402 43.03090556 195.6544
## 1029 119.3427 69.14554 169.5398 42.57279719 196.1125
## 1030 119.3427 68.84778 169.8375 42.11740632 196.5679
## 1031 119.3427 68.55176 170.1336 41.66468515 197.0206
## 1032 119.3427 68.25746 170.4279 41.21458728 197.4707
## 1033 119.3427 67.96484 170.7205 40.76706762 197.9183
## 1034 119.3427 67.67388 171.0114 40.32208238 198.3632
## 1035 119.3427 67.38455 171.3008 39.87958897 198.8057
## 1036 119.3427 67.09682 171.5885 39.43954599 199.2458
## 1037 119.3427 66.81067 171.8747 39.00191319 199.6834
## 1038 119.3427 66.52607 172.1593 38.56665138 200.1187
## 1039 119.3427 66.24299 172.4423 38.13372244 200.5516
## 1040 119.3427 65.96141 172.7239 37.70308927 200.9822
## 1041 119.3427 65.68132 173.0040 37.27471571 201.4106
## 1042 119.3427 65.40267 173.2826 36.84856657 201.8368
## 1043 119.3427 65.12546 173.5599 36.42460756 202.2607
## 1044 119.3427 64.84966 173.8357 36.00280524 202.6825
## 1045 119.3427 64.57525 174.1101 35.58312704 203.1022
## 1046 119.3427 64.30220 174.3831 35.16554119 203.5198
## 1047 119.3427 64.03050 174.6548 34.75001669 203.9353
## 1048 119.3427 63.76013 174.9252 34.33652332 204.3488
## 1049 119.3427 63.49108 175.1942 33.92503159 204.7603
## 1050 119.3427 63.22330 175.4620 33.51551270 205.1698
## 1051 119.3427 62.95681 175.7285 33.10793855 205.5774
## 1052 119.3427 62.69156 175.9938 32.70228169 205.9830
## 1053 119.3427 62.42755 176.2578 32.29851531 206.3868
## 1054 119.3427 62.16476 176.5206 31.89661323 206.7887
## 1055 119.3427 61.90318 176.7821 31.49654987 207.1888
## 1056 119.3427 61.64277 177.0425 31.09830020 207.5870
## 1057 119.3427 61.38354 177.3018 30.70183980 207.9835
## 1058 119.3427 61.12547 177.5599 30.30714475 208.3782
## 1059 119.3427 60.86853 177.8168 29.91419168 208.7711
## 1060 119.3427 60.61271 178.0726 29.52295772 209.1624
## 1061 119.3427 60.35801 178.3273 29.13342052 209.5519
## 1062 119.3427 60.10440 178.5809 28.74555818 209.9398
## 1063 119.3427 59.85187 178.8335 28.35934929 210.3260
## 1064 119.3427 59.60041 179.0849 27.97477287 210.7105
## 1065 119.3427 59.35000 179.3353 27.59180840 211.0935
## 1066 119.3427 59.10064 179.5847 27.21043578 211.4749
## 1067 119.3427 58.85230 179.8330 26.83063532 211.8547
## 1068 119.3427 58.60498 180.0803 26.45238774 212.2329
## 1069 119.3427 58.35866 180.3267 26.07567414 212.6096
## 1070 119.3427 58.11333 180.5720 25.70047602 212.9848
## 1071 119.3427 57.86898 180.8163 25.32677522 213.3585
## 1072 119.3427 57.62559 181.0597 24.95455396 213.7308
## 1073 119.3427 57.38317 181.3022 24.58379481 214.1015
## 1074 119.3427 57.14169 181.5436 24.21448067 214.4708
## 1075 119.3427 56.90114 181.7842 23.84659478 214.8387
## 1076 119.3427 56.66151 182.0238 23.48012069 215.2052
## 1077 119.3427 56.42280 182.2625 23.11504227 215.5703
## 1078 119.3427 56.18499 182.5003 22.75134370 215.9340
## 1079 119.3427 55.94808 182.7372 22.38900945 216.2963
## 1080 119.3427 55.71204 182.9733 22.02802428 216.6573
## 1081 119.3427 55.47688 183.2084 21.66837323 217.0169
## 1082 119.3427 55.24258 183.4427 21.31004162 217.3753
## 1083 119.3427 55.00913 183.6762 20.95301503 217.7323
## 1084 119.3427 54.77653 183.9088 20.59727931 218.0880
## 1085 119.3427 54.54476 184.1406 20.24282056 218.4425
## 1086 119.3427 54.31382 184.3715 19.88962511 218.7957
## 1087 119.3427 54.08369 184.6016 19.53767957 219.1476
## 1088 119.3427 53.85437 184.8309 19.18697075 219.4984
## 1089 119.3427 53.62586 185.0595 18.83748571 219.8478
## 1090 119.3427 53.39813 185.2872 18.48921172 220.1961
## 1091 119.3427 53.17119 185.5141 18.14213628 220.5432
## 1092 119.3427 52.94503 185.7403 17.79624711 220.8891
## 1093 119.3427 52.71963 185.9657 17.45153212 221.2338
## 1094 119.3427 52.49500 186.1903 17.10797943 221.5773
## 1095 119.3427 52.27111 186.4142 16.76557736 221.9197
## 1096 119.3427 52.04797 186.6373 16.42431444 222.2610
## 1097 119.3427 51.82557 186.8598 16.08417937 222.6011
## 1098 119.3427 51.60390 187.0814 15.74516103 222.9402
## 1099 119.3427 51.38295 187.3024 15.40724850 223.2781
## 1100 119.3427 51.16271 187.5226 15.07043103 223.6149
## 1101 119.3427 50.94319 187.7421 14.73469804 223.9506
## 1102 119.3427 50.72437 187.9610 14.40003913 224.2853
## 1103 119.3427 50.50624 188.1791 14.06644405 224.6189
## 1104 119.3427 50.28881 188.3965 13.73390271 224.9514
## 1105 119.3427 50.07205 188.6133 13.40240520 225.2829
## 1106 119.3427 49.85597 188.8293 13.07194175 225.6134
## 1107 119.3427 49.64056 189.0448 12.74250274 225.9428
## 1108 119.3427 49.42582 189.2595 12.41407870 226.2712
## 1109 119.3427 49.21173 189.4736 12.08666031 226.5987
## 1110 119.3427 48.99830 189.6870 11.76023839 226.9251
## 1111 119.3427 48.78551 189.8998 11.43480389 227.2505
## 1112 119.3427 48.57336 190.1120 11.11034791 227.5750
## 1113 119.3427 48.36184 190.3235 10.78686167 227.8985
## 1114 119.3427 48.15095 190.5344 10.46433653 228.2210
## 1115 119.3427 47.94069 190.7446 10.14276398 228.5426
## 1116 119.3427 47.73104 190.9543 9.82213561 228.8632
## 1117 119.3427 47.52200 191.1633 9.50244317 229.1829
## 1118 119.3427 47.31357 191.3717 9.18367851 229.5016
## 1119 119.3427 47.10575 191.5796 8.86583359 229.8195
## 1120 119.3427 46.89851 191.7868 8.54890050 230.1364
## 1121 119.3427 46.69187 191.9934 8.23287144 230.4524
## 1122 119.3427 46.48582 192.1995 7.91773871 230.7676
## 1123 119.3427 46.28035 192.4050 7.60349473 231.0818
## 1124 119.3427 46.07545 192.6099 7.29013203 231.3952
## 1125 119.3427 45.87112 192.8142 6.97764322 231.7077
## 1126 119.3427 45.66737 193.0180 6.66602104 232.0193
## 1127 119.3427 45.46417 193.2212 6.35525833 232.3301
## 1128 119.3427 45.26153 193.4238 6.04534800 232.6400
## 1129 119.3427 45.05944 193.6259 5.73628308 232.9490
## 1130 119.3427 44.85790 193.8274 5.42805668 233.2573
## 1131 119.3427 44.65691 194.0284 5.12066204 233.5647
## 1132 119.3427 44.45646 194.2289 4.81409243 233.8712
## 1133 119.3427 44.25654 194.4288 4.50834126 234.1770
## 1134 119.3427 44.05715 194.6282 4.20340201 234.4819
## 1135 119.3427 43.85828 194.8270 3.89926824 234.7861
## 1136 119.3427 43.65994 195.0254 3.59593360 235.0894
## 1137 119.3427 43.46212 195.2232 3.29339183 235.3919
## 1138 119.3427 43.26482 195.4205 2.99163675 235.6937
## 1139 119.3427 43.06802 195.6173 2.69066223 235.9947
## 1140 119.3427 42.87173 195.8136 2.39046227 236.2949
## 1141 119.3427 42.67594 196.0094 2.09103091 236.5943
## 1142 119.3427 42.48065 196.2047 1.79236228 236.8930
## 1143 119.3427 42.28586 196.3995 1.49445057 237.1909
## 1144 119.3427 42.09156 196.5938 1.19729007 237.4880
## 1145 119.3427 41.89774 196.7876 0.90087512 237.7844
## 1146 119.3427 41.70441 196.9809 0.60520013 238.0801
## 1147 119.3427 41.51156 197.1738 0.31025959 238.3751
## 1148 119.3427 41.31918 197.3661 0.01604806 238.6693
## 1149 119.3427 41.12728 197.5580 -0.27743985 238.9628
## 1150 119.3427 40.93585 197.7495 -0.57020944 239.2555
## 1151 119.3427 40.74488 197.9404 -0.86226598 239.5476
## 1152 119.3427 40.55438 198.1309 -1.15361463 239.8389
## 1153 119.3427 40.36434 198.3210 -1.44426052 240.1296
## 1154 119.3427 40.17475 198.5106 -1.73420872 240.4195
## 1155 119.3427 39.98562 198.6997 -2.02346423 240.7088
## 1156 119.3427 39.79693 198.8884 -2.31203198 240.9974
## 1157 119.3427 39.60869 199.0766 -2.59991686 241.2852
## 1158 119.3427 39.42090 199.2644 -2.88712370 241.5724
## 1159 119.3427 39.23355 199.4518 -3.17365725 241.8590
## 1160 119.3427 39.04663 199.6387 -3.45952224 242.1448
## 1161 119.3427 38.86015 199.8252 -3.74472332 242.4300
## 1162 119.3427 38.67409 200.0112 -4.02926511 242.7146
## 1163 119.3427 38.48847 200.1969 -4.31315213 242.9985
## 1164 119.3427 38.30327 200.3820 -4.59638891 243.2817
## 1165 119.3427 38.11850 200.5668 -4.87897989 243.5643
## 1166 119.3427 37.93414 200.7512 -5.16092945 243.8463
## 1167 119.3427 37.75020 200.9351 -5.44224196 244.1276
## 1168 119.3427 37.56667 201.1186 -5.72292171 244.4082
## 1169 119.3427 37.38356 201.3018 -6.00297294 244.6883
## 1170 119.3427 37.20085 201.4845 -6.28239987 244.9677
## 1171 119.3427 37.01855 201.6668 -6.56120666 245.2465
## 1172 119.3427 36.83665 201.8487 -6.83939740 245.5247
## 1173 119.3427 36.65515 202.0302 -7.11697617 245.8023
## 1174 119.3427 36.47405 202.2113 -7.39394699 246.0793
## 1175 119.3427 36.29334 202.3920 -7.67031383 246.3556
## 1176 119.3427 36.11303 202.5723 -7.94608063 246.6314
## 1177 119.3427 35.93310 202.7522 -8.22125128 246.9066
## 1178 119.3427 35.75356 202.9318 -8.49582964 247.1812
## 1179 119.3427 35.57441 203.1109 -8.76981950 247.4551
## 1180 119.3427 35.39564 203.2897 -9.04322463 247.7285
## 1181 119.3427 35.21725 203.4681 -9.31604878 248.0014
## 1182 119.3427 35.03924 203.6461 -9.58829561 248.2736autoplot(ses.1) +
autolayer(fitted(ses.1), series="Fitted") +
ylab("Price") + xlab("Date")
#Cara 2 (fungsi Holtwinter)
ses1<- HoltWinters(train.ts, gamma = FALSE, beta = FALSE, alpha = 0.2)
plot(ses1)
#ramalan
ramalan1<- forecast(ses1, h=236)
ramalan1## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 121.4478 109.55490 133.3406 103.25920 139.6363
## 948 121.4478 109.31938 133.5762 102.89899 139.9965
## 949 121.4478 109.08834 133.8072 102.54565 140.3499
## 950 121.4478 108.86154 134.0340 102.19880 140.6967
## 951 121.4478 108.63876 134.2568 101.85808 141.0375
## 952 121.4478 108.41979 134.4758 101.52319 141.3723
## 953 121.4478 108.20443 134.6911 101.19383 141.7017
## 954 121.4478 107.99253 134.9030 100.86975 142.0258
## 955 121.4478 107.78390 135.1116 100.55069 142.3448
## 956 121.4478 107.57842 135.3171 100.23643 142.6591
## 957 121.4478 107.37594 135.5196 99.92676 142.9688
## 958 121.4478 107.17633 135.7192 99.62148 143.2741
## 959 121.4478 106.97947 135.9161 99.32042 143.5751
## 960 121.4478 106.78526 136.1103 99.02339 143.8721
## 961 121.4478 106.59358 136.3020 98.73025 144.1653
## 962 121.4478 106.40435 136.4912 98.44084 144.4547
## 963 121.4478 106.21747 136.6781 98.15503 144.7405
## 964 121.4478 106.03285 136.8627 97.87269 145.0229
## 965 121.4478 105.85042 137.0451 97.59368 145.3019
## 966 121.4478 105.67010 137.2254 97.31790 145.5776
## 967 121.4478 105.49181 137.4037 97.04524 145.8503
## 968 121.4478 105.31550 137.5800 96.77559 146.1199
## 969 121.4478 105.14109 137.7544 96.50886 146.3867
## 970 121.4478 104.96853 137.9270 96.24495 146.6506
## 971 121.4478 104.79775 138.0978 95.98377 146.9118
## 972 121.4478 104.62871 138.2668 95.72525 147.1703
## 973 121.4478 104.46136 138.4342 95.46929 147.4262
## 974 121.4478 104.29563 138.5999 95.21584 147.6797
## 975 121.4478 104.13149 138.7640 94.96481 147.9307
## 976 121.4478 103.96890 138.9266 94.71614 148.1794
## 977 121.4478 103.80780 139.0877 94.46976 148.4258
## 978 121.4478 103.64816 139.2474 94.22561 148.6699
## 979 121.4478 103.48993 139.4056 93.98363 148.9119
## 980 121.4478 103.33309 139.5624 93.74376 149.1518
## 981 121.4478 103.17760 139.7179 93.50596 149.3896
## 982 121.4478 103.02342 139.8721 93.27016 149.6254
## 983 121.4478 102.87052 140.0250 93.03631 149.8592
## 984 121.4478 102.71886 140.1767 92.80438 150.0912
## 985 121.4478 102.56843 140.3271 92.57431 150.3212
## 986 121.4478 102.41918 140.4764 92.34606 150.5495
## 987 121.4478 102.27110 140.6244 92.11958 150.7760
## 988 121.4478 102.12415 140.7714 91.89484 151.0007
## 989 121.4478 101.97831 140.9172 91.67180 151.2237
## 990 121.4478 101.83355 141.0620 91.45041 151.4451
## 991 121.4478 101.68985 141.2057 91.23065 151.6649
## 992 121.4478 101.54720 141.3483 91.01247 151.8831
## 993 121.4478 101.40555 141.4900 90.79584 152.0997
## 994 121.4478 101.26490 141.6306 90.58074 152.3148
## 995 121.4478 101.12523 141.7703 90.36713 152.5284
## 996 121.4478 100.98651 141.9090 90.15497 152.7406
## 997 121.4478 100.84872 142.0468 89.94424 152.9513
## 998 121.4478 100.71185 142.1837 89.73491 153.1606
## 999 121.4478 100.57587 142.3197 89.52696 153.3686
## 1000 121.4478 100.44078 142.4548 89.32035 153.5752
## 1001 121.4478 100.30655 142.5890 89.11506 153.7805
## 1002 121.4478 100.17316 142.7224 88.91106 153.9845
## 1003 121.4478 100.04061 142.8549 88.70834 154.1872
## 1004 121.4478 99.90887 142.9867 88.50687 154.3887
## 1005 121.4478 99.77793 143.1176 88.30662 154.5889
## 1006 121.4478 99.64778 143.2478 88.10757 154.7880
## 1007 121.4478 99.51841 143.3771 87.90970 154.9858
## 1008 121.4478 99.38979 143.5058 87.71300 155.1825
## 1009 121.4478 99.26191 143.6336 87.51743 155.3781
## 1010 121.4478 99.13477 143.7608 87.32299 155.5726
## 1011 121.4478 99.00835 143.8872 87.12964 155.7659
## 1012 121.4478 98.88264 144.0129 86.93738 155.9582
## 1013 121.4478 98.75762 144.1379 86.74619 156.1493
## 1014 121.4478 98.63329 144.2622 86.55604 156.3395
## 1015 121.4478 98.50964 144.3859 86.36692 156.5286
## 1016 121.4478 98.38664 144.5089 86.17882 156.7167
## 1017 121.4478 98.26430 144.6312 85.99172 156.9038
## 1018 121.4478 98.14260 144.7529 85.80560 157.0899
## 1019 121.4478 98.02154 144.8740 85.62044 157.2751
## 1020 121.4478 97.90109 144.9944 85.43624 157.4593
## 1021 121.4478 97.78126 145.1143 85.25297 157.6426
## 1022 121.4478 97.66203 145.2335 85.07063 157.8249
## 1023 121.4478 97.54340 145.3521 84.88919 158.0063
## 1024 121.4478 97.42535 145.4702 84.70866 158.1869
## 1025 121.4478 97.30789 145.5877 84.52900 158.3665
## 1026 121.4478 97.19098 145.7046 84.35022 158.5453
## 1027 121.4478 97.07464 145.8209 84.17229 158.7232
## 1028 121.4478 96.95886 145.9367 83.99521 158.9003
## 1029 121.4478 96.84361 146.0519 83.81896 159.0766
## 1030 121.4478 96.72891 146.1666 83.64353 159.2520
## 1031 121.4478 96.61473 146.2808 83.46892 159.4266
## 1032 121.4478 96.50108 146.3945 83.29510 159.6004
## 1033 121.4478 96.38794 146.5076 83.12207 159.7735
## 1034 121.4478 96.27531 146.6202 82.94982 159.9457
## 1035 121.4478 96.16319 146.7324 82.77834 160.1172
## 1036 121.4478 96.05155 146.8440 82.60761 160.2879
## 1037 121.4478 95.94041 146.9551 82.43763 160.4579
## 1038 121.4478 95.82975 147.0658 82.26839 160.6271
## 1039 121.4478 95.71956 147.1760 82.09987 160.7957
## 1040 121.4478 95.60985 147.2857 81.93208 160.9635
## 1041 121.4478 95.50060 147.3949 81.76499 161.1305
## 1042 121.4478 95.39180 147.5037 81.59861 161.2969
## 1043 121.4478 95.28346 147.6121 81.43291 161.4626
## 1044 121.4478 95.17557 147.7200 81.26790 161.6276
## 1045 121.4478 95.06811 147.8274 81.10357 161.7920
## 1046 121.4478 94.96110 147.9344 80.93990 161.9556
## 1047 121.4478 94.85451 148.0410 80.77689 162.1186
## 1048 121.4478 94.74835 148.1472 80.61453 162.2810
## 1049 121.4478 94.64261 148.2529 80.45281 162.4427
## 1050 121.4478 94.53728 148.3583 80.29173 162.6038
## 1051 121.4478 94.43237 148.4632 80.13128 162.7643
## 1052 121.4478 94.32786 148.5677 79.97145 162.9241
## 1053 121.4478 94.22375 148.6718 79.81223 163.0833
## 1054 121.4478 94.12004 148.7755 79.65362 163.2419
## 1055 121.4478 94.01672 148.8788 79.49560 163.3999
## 1056 121.4478 93.91379 148.9817 79.33818 163.5574
## 1057 121.4478 93.81124 149.0843 79.18135 163.7142
## 1058 121.4478 93.70907 149.1865 79.02510 163.8704
## 1059 121.4478 93.60728 149.2883 78.86942 164.0261
## 1060 121.4478 93.50586 149.3897 78.71430 164.1812
## 1061 121.4478 93.40480 149.4907 78.55975 164.3358
## 1062 121.4478 93.30411 149.5914 78.40576 164.4898
## 1063 121.4478 93.20377 149.6918 78.25231 164.6432
## 1064 121.4478 93.10380 149.7917 78.09940 164.7961
## 1065 121.4478 93.00417 149.8914 77.94704 164.9485
## 1066 121.4478 92.90489 149.9906 77.79520 165.1003
## 1067 121.4478 92.80595 150.0896 77.64389 165.2516
## 1068 121.4478 92.70736 150.1882 77.49310 165.4024
## 1069 121.4478 92.60910 150.2864 77.34283 165.5527
## 1070 121.4478 92.51117 150.3844 77.19307 165.7025
## 1071 121.4478 92.41358 150.4820 77.04381 165.8517
## 1072 121.4478 92.31631 150.5792 76.89505 166.0005
## 1073 121.4478 92.21937 150.6762 76.74679 166.1487
## 1074 121.4478 92.12275 150.7728 76.59902 166.2965
## 1075 121.4478 92.02644 150.8691 76.45173 166.4438
## 1076 121.4478 91.93045 150.9651 76.30492 166.5906
## 1077 121.4478 91.83477 151.0608 76.15859 166.7369
## 1078 121.4478 91.73940 151.1561 76.01273 166.8828
## 1079 121.4478 91.64433 151.2512 75.86734 167.0282
## 1080 121.4478 91.54956 151.3460 75.72241 167.1731
## 1081 121.4478 91.45510 151.4404 75.57794 167.3176
## 1082 121.4478 91.36093 151.5346 75.43392 167.4616
## 1083 121.4478 91.26706 151.6285 75.29035 167.6052
## 1084 121.4478 91.17347 151.7221 75.14723 167.7483
## 1085 121.4478 91.08018 151.8154 75.00454 167.8910
## 1086 121.4478 90.98717 151.9084 74.86230 168.0332
## 1087 121.4478 90.89444 152.0011 74.72049 168.1751
## 1088 121.4478 90.80199 152.0935 74.57910 168.3164
## 1089 121.4478 90.70983 152.1857 74.43814 168.4574
## 1090 121.4478 90.61793 152.2776 74.29761 168.5979
## 1091 121.4478 90.52631 152.3692 74.15749 168.7381
## 1092 121.4478 90.43497 152.4606 74.01778 168.8778
## 1093 121.4478 90.34389 152.5517 73.87848 169.0171
## 1094 121.4478 90.25307 152.6425 73.73960 169.1559
## 1095 121.4478 90.16252 152.7330 73.60111 169.2944
## 1096 121.4478 90.07223 152.8233 73.46302 169.4325
## 1097 121.4478 89.98220 152.9133 73.32533 169.5702
## 1098 121.4478 89.89243 153.0031 73.18804 169.7075
## 1099 121.4478 89.80291 153.0926 73.05113 169.8444
## 1100 121.4478 89.71364 153.1819 72.91461 169.9809
## 1101 121.4478 89.62463 153.2709 72.77847 170.1171
## 1102 121.4478 89.53586 153.3597 72.64271 170.2528
## 1103 121.4478 89.44734 153.4482 72.50733 170.3882
## 1104 121.4478 89.35906 153.5365 72.37232 170.5232
## 1105 121.4478 89.27102 153.6245 72.23768 170.6579
## 1106 121.4478 89.18323 153.7123 72.10341 170.7921
## 1107 121.4478 89.09567 153.7999 71.96951 170.9260
## 1108 121.4478 89.00835 153.8872 71.83596 171.0596
## 1109 121.4478 88.92127 153.9743 71.70278 171.1928
## 1110 121.4478 88.83441 154.0611 71.56995 171.3256
## 1111 121.4478 88.74779 154.1477 71.43747 171.4581
## 1112 121.4478 88.66140 154.2341 71.30534 171.5902
## 1113 121.4478 88.57523 154.3203 71.17356 171.7220
## 1114 121.4478 88.48929 154.4062 71.04212 171.8534
## 1115 121.4478 88.40357 154.4920 70.91103 171.9845
## 1116 121.4478 88.31807 154.5775 70.78027 172.1153
## 1117 121.4478 88.23280 154.6627 70.64986 172.2457
## 1118 121.4478 88.14774 154.7478 70.51977 172.3758
## 1119 121.4478 88.06290 154.8326 70.39002 172.5055
## 1120 121.4478 87.97827 154.9173 70.26059 172.6349
## 1121 121.4478 87.89386 155.0017 70.13150 172.7640
## 1122 121.4478 87.80966 155.0859 70.00272 172.8928
## 1123 121.4478 87.72567 155.1699 69.87427 173.0213
## 1124 121.4478 87.64189 155.2536 69.74614 173.1494
## 1125 121.4478 87.55831 155.3372 69.61832 173.2772
## 1126 121.4478 87.47495 155.4206 69.49082 173.4047
## 1127 121.4478 87.39178 155.5038 69.36363 173.5319
## 1128 121.4478 87.30882 155.5867 69.23675 173.6588
## 1129 121.4478 87.22606 155.6695 69.11018 173.7854
## 1130 121.4478 87.14350 155.7520 68.98391 173.9116
## 1131 121.4478 87.06113 155.8344 68.85795 174.0376
## 1132 121.4478 86.97897 155.9166 68.73228 174.1633
## 1133 121.4478 86.89699 155.9985 68.60692 174.2886
## 1134 121.4478 86.81522 156.0803 68.48185 174.4137
## 1135 121.4478 86.73363 156.1619 68.35708 174.5385
## 1136 121.4478 86.65224 156.2433 68.23260 174.6629
## 1137 121.4478 86.57104 156.3245 68.10841 174.7871
## 1138 121.4478 86.49002 156.4055 67.98451 174.9110
## 1139 121.4478 86.40919 156.4863 67.86089 175.0346
## 1140 121.4478 86.32855 156.5670 67.73756 175.1580
## 1141 121.4478 86.24810 156.6474 67.61452 175.2810
## 1142 121.4478 86.16782 156.7277 67.49175 175.4038
## 1143 121.4478 86.08773 156.8078 67.36926 175.5263
## 1144 121.4478 86.00782 156.8877 67.24705 175.6485
## 1145 121.4478 85.92809 156.9674 67.12511 175.7704
## 1146 121.4478 85.84854 157.0470 67.00345 175.8921
## 1147 121.4478 85.76917 157.1264 66.88206 176.0135
## 1148 121.4478 85.68997 157.2056 66.76093 176.1346
## 1149 121.4478 85.61095 157.2846 66.64008 176.2555
## 1150 121.4478 85.53210 157.3634 66.51949 176.3760
## 1151 121.4478 85.45342 157.4421 66.39917 176.4964
## 1152 121.4478 85.37492 157.5206 66.27910 176.6164
## 1153 121.4478 85.29658 157.5990 66.15930 176.7362
## 1154 121.4478 85.21842 157.6771 66.03976 176.8558
## 1155 121.4478 85.14042 157.7551 65.92047 176.9751
## 1156 121.4478 85.06259 157.8329 65.80144 177.0941
## 1157 121.4478 84.98493 157.9106 65.68267 177.2129
## 1158 121.4478 84.90743 157.9881 65.56414 177.3314
## 1159 121.4478 84.83010 158.0654 65.44587 177.4497
## 1160 121.4478 84.75293 158.1426 65.32785 177.5677
## 1161 121.4478 84.67592 158.2196 65.21007 177.6855
## 1162 121.4478 84.59907 158.2965 65.09254 177.8030
## 1163 121.4478 84.52238 158.3732 64.97526 177.9203
## 1164 121.4478 84.44585 158.4497 64.85822 178.0373
## 1165 121.4478 84.36948 158.5261 64.74142 178.1541
## 1166 121.4478 84.29326 158.6023 64.62486 178.2707
## 1167 121.4478 84.21721 158.6783 64.50854 178.3870
## 1168 121.4478 84.14130 158.7542 64.39245 178.5031
## 1169 121.4478 84.06555 158.8300 64.27660 178.6189
## 1170 121.4478 83.98996 158.9056 64.16099 178.7345
## 1171 121.4478 83.91451 158.9810 64.04561 178.8499
## 1172 121.4478 83.83922 159.0563 63.93046 178.9651
## 1173 121.4478 83.76408 159.1315 63.81554 179.0800
## 1174 121.4478 83.68909 159.2065 63.70085 179.1947
## 1175 121.4478 83.61424 159.2813 63.58638 179.3092
## 1176 121.4478 83.53955 159.3560 63.47215 179.4234
## 1177 121.4478 83.46500 159.4305 63.35813 179.5374
## 1178 121.4478 83.39059 159.5049 63.24434 179.6512
## 1179 121.4478 83.31634 159.5792 63.13078 179.7648
## 1180 121.4478 83.24222 159.6533 63.01743 179.8781
## 1181 121.4478 83.16825 159.7273 62.90430 179.9912
## 1182 121.4478 83.09443 159.8011 62.79139 180.1041ses2<- HoltWinters(train.ts, gamma = FALSE, beta = FALSE, alpha = 0.7)
plot(ses2)
#ramalan
ramalan2<- forecast(ses2, h=236)
ramalan2## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 119.3427 111.52031 127.1650 107.37941037 131.3059
## 948 119.3427 109.79427 128.8911 104.73965270 133.9457
## 949 119.3427 108.33564 130.3497 102.50887542 136.1764
## 950 119.3427 107.04887 131.6364 100.54093709 138.1444
## 951 119.3427 105.88458 132.8007 98.76030673 139.9250
## 952 119.3427 104.81329 133.8720 97.12190962 141.5634
## 953 119.3427 103.81574 134.8696 95.59628703 143.0890
## 954 119.3427 102.87852 135.8068 94.16293182 144.5224
## 955 119.3427 101.99185 136.6935 92.80688805 145.8784
## 956 119.3427 101.14834 137.5370 91.51685049 147.1685
## 957 119.3427 100.34224 138.3431 90.28402691 148.4013
## 958 119.3427 99.56898 139.1163 89.10141930 149.5839
## 959 119.3427 98.82483 139.8605 87.96334960 150.7220
## 960 119.3427 98.10675 140.5786 86.86513541 151.8202
## 961 119.3427 97.41216 141.2732 85.80286147 152.8825
## 962 119.3427 96.73891 141.9464 84.77321442 153.9121
## 963 119.3427 96.08515 142.6002 83.77336074 154.9120
## 964 119.3427 95.44926 143.2361 82.80085473 155.8845
## 965 119.3427 94.82986 143.8555 81.85356806 156.8318
## 966 119.3427 94.22573 144.4596 80.92963490 157.7557
## 967 119.3427 93.63580 145.0495 80.02740877 158.6579
## 968 119.3427 93.05910 145.6262 79.14542798 159.5399
## 969 119.3427 92.49479 146.1905 78.28238791 160.4029
## 970 119.3427 91.94210 146.7432 77.43711828 161.2482
## 971 119.3427 91.40034 147.2850 76.60856461 162.0768
## 972 119.3427 90.86888 147.8164 75.79577272 162.8895
## 973 119.3427 90.34716 148.3382 74.99787593 163.6874
## 974 119.3427 89.83467 148.8507 74.21408417 164.4712
## 975 119.3427 89.33093 149.3544 73.44367484 165.2416
## 976 119.3427 88.83550 149.8498 72.68598501 165.9993
## 977 119.3427 88.34799 150.3373 71.94040474 166.7449
## 978 119.3427 87.86803 150.8173 71.20637134 167.4789
## 979 119.3427 87.39528 151.2900 70.48336438 168.2020
## 980 119.3427 86.92943 151.7559 69.77090139 168.9144
## 981 119.3427 86.47018 152.2151 69.06853411 169.6168
## 982 119.3427 86.01725 152.6681 68.37584514 170.3095
## 983 119.3427 85.57040 153.1149 67.69244510 170.9929
## 984 119.3427 85.12938 153.5559 67.01797002 171.6674
## 985 119.3427 84.69398 153.9913 66.35207910 172.3332
## 986 119.3427 84.26398 154.4213 65.69445270 172.9909
## 987 119.3427 83.83919 154.8461 65.04479053 173.6405
## 988 119.3427 83.41942 155.2659 64.40281005 174.2825
## 989 119.3427 83.00450 155.6808 63.76824507 174.9171
## 990 119.3427 82.59427 156.0911 63.14084440 175.5445
## 991 119.3427 82.18856 156.4968 62.52037071 176.1650
## 992 119.3427 81.78724 156.8981 61.90659953 176.7787
## 993 119.3427 81.39016 157.2952 61.29931822 177.3860
## 994 119.3427 80.99719 157.6881 60.69832517 177.9870
## 995 119.3427 80.60821 158.0771 60.10342899 178.5819
## 996 119.3427 80.22309 158.4622 59.51444782 179.1709
## 997 119.3427 79.84174 158.8436 58.93120864 179.7541
## 998 119.3427 79.46402 159.2213 58.35354672 180.3318
## 999 119.3427 79.08985 159.5955 57.78130507 180.9040
## 1000 119.3427 78.71913 159.9662 57.21433390 181.4710
## 1001 119.3427 78.35176 160.3336 56.65249022 182.0328
## 1002 119.3427 77.98765 160.6977 56.09563739 182.5897
## 1003 119.3427 77.62673 161.0586 55.54364471 183.1417
## 1004 119.3427 77.26889 161.4164 54.99638711 183.6889
## 1005 119.3427 76.91408 161.7712 54.45374479 184.2316
## 1006 119.3427 76.56221 162.1231 53.91560291 184.7697
## 1007 119.3427 76.21321 162.4721 53.38185131 185.3035
## 1008 119.3427 75.86701 162.8183 52.85238428 185.8329
## 1009 119.3427 75.52354 163.1618 52.32710025 186.3582
## 1010 119.3427 75.18275 163.5026 51.80590163 186.8794
## 1011 119.3427 74.84456 163.8408 51.28869455 187.3966
## 1012 119.3427 74.50893 164.1764 50.77538868 187.9099
## 1013 119.3427 74.17579 164.5095 50.26589705 188.4194
## 1014 119.3427 73.84509 164.8402 49.76013589 188.9252
## 1015 119.3427 73.51678 165.1685 49.25802442 189.4273
## 1016 119.3427 73.19080 165.4945 48.75948476 189.9258
## 1017 119.3427 72.86711 165.8182 48.26444175 190.4209
## 1018 119.3427 72.54566 166.1397 47.77282283 190.9125
## 1019 119.3427 72.22640 166.4589 47.28455792 191.4008
## 1020 119.3427 71.90929 166.7760 46.79957929 191.8857
## 1021 119.3427 71.59428 167.0910 46.31782148 192.3675
## 1022 119.3427 71.28134 167.4040 45.83922114 192.8461
## 1023 119.3427 70.97043 167.7149 45.36371700 193.3216
## 1024 119.3427 70.66150 168.0238 44.89124974 193.7941
## 1025 119.3427 70.35452 168.3308 44.42176190 194.2636
## 1026 119.3427 70.04945 168.6359 43.95519781 194.7301
## 1027 119.3427 69.74625 168.9391 43.49150353 195.1938
## 1028 119.3427 69.44490 169.2404 43.03062674 195.6547
## 1029 119.3427 69.14536 169.5400 42.57251669 196.1128
## 1030 119.3427 68.84760 169.8377 42.11712416 196.5682
## 1031 119.3427 68.55158 170.1337 41.66440134 197.0209
## 1032 119.3427 68.25727 170.4280 41.21430182 197.4710
## 1033 119.3427 67.96465 170.7207 40.76678053 197.9185
## 1034 119.3427 67.67369 171.0116 40.32179366 198.3635
## 1035 119.3427 67.38436 171.3010 39.87929863 198.8060
## 1036 119.3427 67.09663 171.5887 39.43925405 199.2461
## 1037 119.3427 66.81048 171.8748 39.00161964 199.6837
## 1038 119.3427 66.52587 172.1594 38.56635624 200.1190
## 1039 119.3427 66.24280 172.4425 38.13342573 200.5519
## 1040 119.3427 65.96122 172.7241 37.70279098 200.9825
## 1041 119.3427 65.68112 173.0042 37.27441585 201.4109
## 1042 119.3427 65.40247 173.2828 36.84826516 201.8371
## 1043 119.3427 65.12526 173.5601 36.42430460 202.2610
## 1044 119.3427 64.84946 173.8359 36.00250074 202.6828
## 1045 119.3427 64.57505 174.1103 35.58282100 203.1025
## 1046 119.3427 64.30200 174.3833 35.16523362 203.5201
## 1047 119.3427 64.03030 174.6550 34.74970761 203.9356
## 1048 119.3427 63.75993 174.9254 34.33621273 204.3491
## 1049 119.3427 63.49087 175.1945 33.92471950 204.7606
## 1050 119.3427 63.22310 175.4622 33.51519911 205.1701
## 1051 119.3427 62.95660 175.7287 33.10762347 205.5777
## 1052 119.3427 62.69135 175.9940 32.70196513 205.9834
## 1053 119.3427 62.42735 176.2580 32.29819727 206.3871
## 1054 119.3427 62.16455 176.5208 31.89629373 206.7890
## 1055 119.3427 61.90297 176.7824 31.49622890 207.1891
## 1056 119.3427 61.64256 177.0428 31.09797778 207.5873
## 1057 119.3427 61.38333 177.3020 30.70151593 207.9838
## 1058 119.3427 61.12525 177.5601 30.30681943 208.3785
## 1059 119.3427 60.86831 177.8170 29.91386493 208.7715
## 1060 119.3427 60.61250 178.0728 29.52262954 209.1627
## 1061 119.3427 60.35779 178.3275 29.13309092 209.5522
## 1062 119.3427 60.10418 178.5811 28.74522716 209.9401
## 1063 119.3427 59.85165 178.8337 28.35901686 210.3263
## 1064 119.3427 59.60019 179.0851 27.97443903 210.7109
## 1065 119.3427 59.34978 179.3355 27.59147317 211.0938
## 1066 119.3427 59.10042 179.5849 27.21009915 211.4752
## 1067 119.3427 58.85208 179.8332 26.83029731 211.8550
## 1068 119.3427 58.60475 180.0806 26.45204834 212.2333
## 1069 119.3427 58.35843 180.3269 26.07533337 212.6100
## 1070 119.3427 58.11310 180.5722 25.70013387 212.9852
## 1071 119.3427 57.86875 180.8166 25.32643171 213.3589
## 1072 119.3427 57.62537 181.0600 24.95420909 213.7311
## 1073 119.3427 57.38294 181.3024 24.58344858 214.1019
## 1074 119.3427 57.14146 181.5439 24.21413309 214.4712
## 1075 119.3427 56.90091 181.7844 23.84624586 214.8391
## 1076 119.3427 56.66129 182.0240 23.47977043 215.2056
## 1077 119.3427 56.42257 182.2627 23.11469068 215.5706
## 1078 119.3427 56.18476 182.5006 22.75099078 215.9343
## 1079 119.3427 55.94784 182.7375 22.38865520 216.2967
## 1080 119.3427 55.71181 182.9735 22.02766872 216.6577
## 1081 119.3427 55.47664 183.2087 21.66801635 217.0173
## 1082 119.3427 55.24234 183.4430 21.30968343 217.3756
## 1083 119.3427 55.00889 183.6764 20.95265554 217.7327
## 1084 119.3427 54.77629 183.9090 20.59691852 218.0884
## 1085 119.3427 54.54452 184.1408 20.24245847 218.4429
## 1086 119.3427 54.31358 184.3717 19.88926174 218.7961
## 1087 119.3427 54.08345 184.6019 19.53731491 219.1480
## 1088 119.3427 53.85414 184.8312 19.18660481 219.4987
## 1089 119.3427 53.62562 185.0597 18.83711849 219.8482
## 1090 119.3427 53.39789 185.2874 18.48884323 220.1965
## 1091 119.3427 53.17095 185.5144 18.14176652 220.5436
## 1092 119.3427 52.94479 185.7405 17.79587609 220.8894
## 1093 119.3427 52.71939 185.9659 17.45115983 221.2342
## 1094 119.3427 52.49475 186.1906 17.10760589 221.5777
## 1095 119.3427 52.27087 186.4145 16.76520257 221.9201
## 1096 119.3427 52.04773 186.6376 16.42393840 222.2614
## 1097 119.3427 51.82532 186.8600 16.08380208 222.6015
## 1098 119.3427 51.60365 187.0817 15.74478251 222.9405
## 1099 119.3427 51.38270 187.3026 15.40686874 223.2785
## 1100 119.3427 51.16247 187.5229 15.07005005 223.6153
## 1101 119.3427 50.94294 187.7424 14.73431583 223.9510
## 1102 119.3427 50.72412 187.9612 14.39965569 224.2857
## 1103 119.3427 50.50599 188.1793 14.06605939 224.6193
## 1104 119.3427 50.28855 188.3968 13.73351684 224.9518
## 1105 119.3427 50.07180 188.6135 13.40201812 225.2833
## 1106 119.3427 49.85572 188.8296 13.07155346 225.6138
## 1107 119.3427 49.64031 189.0450 12.74211325 225.9432
## 1108 119.3427 49.42556 189.2598 12.41368801 226.2716
## 1109 119.3427 49.21148 189.4738 12.08626843 226.5991
## 1110 119.3427 48.99804 189.6873 11.75984531 226.9255
## 1111 119.3427 48.78525 189.9001 11.43440963 227.2509
## 1112 119.3427 48.57310 190.1122 11.10995246 227.5754
## 1113 119.3427 48.36158 190.3237 10.78646504 227.8989
## 1114 119.3427 48.15069 190.5346 10.46393872 228.2214
## 1115 119.3427 47.94043 190.7449 10.14236499 228.5430
## 1116 119.3427 47.73078 190.9545 9.82173545 228.8636
## 1117 119.3427 47.52174 191.1636 9.50204185 229.1833
## 1118 119.3427 47.31331 191.3720 9.18327602 229.5020
## 1119 119.3427 47.10548 191.5798 8.86542994 229.8199
## 1120 119.3427 46.89825 191.7871 8.54849569 230.1368
## 1121 119.3427 46.69161 191.9937 8.23246547 230.4529
## 1122 119.3427 46.48555 192.1998 7.91733159 230.7680
## 1123 119.3427 46.28008 192.4052 7.60308646 231.0822
## 1124 119.3427 46.07518 192.6101 7.28972261 231.3956
## 1125 119.3427 45.87086 192.8145 6.97723267 231.7081
## 1126 119.3427 45.66710 193.0182 6.66560935 232.0197
## 1127 119.3427 45.46390 193.2214 6.35484550 232.3305
## 1128 119.3427 45.26126 193.4241 6.04493404 232.6404
## 1129 119.3427 45.05917 193.6261 5.73586799 232.9495
## 1130 119.3427 44.85763 193.8277 5.42764047 233.2577
## 1131 119.3427 44.65664 194.0287 5.12024470 233.5651
## 1132 119.3427 44.45618 194.2291 4.81367397 233.8716
## 1133 119.3427 44.25626 194.4291 4.50792169 234.1774
## 1134 119.3427 44.05687 194.6285 4.20298132 234.4823
## 1135 119.3427 43.85801 194.8273 3.89884644 234.7865
## 1136 119.3427 43.65967 195.0257 3.59551069 235.0898
## 1137 119.3427 43.46185 195.2235 3.29296782 235.3924
## 1138 119.3427 43.26454 195.4208 2.99121163 235.6941
## 1139 119.3427 43.06774 195.6176 2.69023602 235.9951
## 1140 119.3427 42.87145 195.8139 2.39003496 236.2953
## 1141 119.3427 42.67566 196.0097 2.09060250 236.5947
## 1142 119.3427 42.48037 196.2049 1.79193278 236.8934
## 1143 119.3427 42.28558 196.3997 1.49401999 237.1913
## 1144 119.3427 42.09127 196.5940 1.19685840 237.4885
## 1145 119.3427 41.89746 196.7879 0.90044236 237.7849
## 1146 119.3427 41.70412 196.9812 0.60476629 238.0806
## 1147 119.3427 41.51127 197.1740 0.30982468 238.3755
## 1148 119.3427 41.31890 197.3664 0.01561207 238.6697
## 1149 119.3427 41.12700 197.5583 -0.27787691 238.9632
## 1150 119.3427 40.93556 197.7498 -0.57064758 239.2560
## 1151 119.3427 40.74460 197.9407 -0.86270517 239.5480
## 1152 119.3427 40.55409 198.1312 -1.15405489 239.8394
## 1153 119.3427 40.36405 198.3213 -1.44470185 240.1300
## 1154 119.3427 40.17446 198.5109 -1.73465111 240.4200
## 1155 119.3427 39.98533 198.7000 -2.02390767 240.7092
## 1156 119.3427 39.79664 198.8887 -2.31247648 240.9978
## 1157 119.3427 39.60840 199.0769 -2.60036241 241.2857
## 1158 119.3427 39.42061 199.2647 -2.88757029 241.5729
## 1159 119.3427 39.23325 199.4521 -3.17410489 241.8594
## 1160 119.3427 39.04634 199.6390 -3.45997093 242.1453
## 1161 119.3427 38.85985 199.8255 -3.74517306 242.4305
## 1162 119.3427 38.67380 200.0115 -4.02971588 242.7150
## 1163 119.3427 38.48818 200.1971 -4.31360394 242.9989
## 1164 119.3427 38.30298 200.3823 -4.59684175 243.2822
## 1165 119.3427 38.11820 200.5671 -4.87943376 243.5648
## 1166 119.3427 37.93384 200.7515 -5.16138436 243.8467
## 1167 119.3427 37.74990 200.9354 -5.44269789 244.1280
## 1168 119.3427 37.56637 201.1189 -5.72337866 244.4087
## 1169 119.3427 37.38326 201.3021 -6.00343092 244.6888
## 1170 119.3427 37.20055 201.4848 -6.28285888 244.9682
## 1171 119.3427 37.01825 201.6671 -6.56166668 245.2470
## 1172 119.3427 36.83635 201.8490 -6.83985844 245.5252
## 1173 119.3427 36.65485 202.0305 -7.11743822 245.8028
## 1174 119.3427 36.47374 202.2116 -7.39441005 246.0797
## 1175 119.3427 36.29304 202.3923 -7.67077790 246.3561
## 1176 119.3427 36.11272 202.5726 -7.94654571 246.6319
## 1177 119.3427 35.93280 202.7525 -8.22171737 246.9070
## 1178 119.3427 35.75326 202.9321 -8.49629673 247.1816
## 1179 119.3427 35.57411 203.1112 -8.77028759 247.4556
## 1180 119.3427 35.39534 203.2900 -9.04369372 247.7290
## 1181 119.3427 35.21694 203.4684 -9.31651886 248.0018
## 1182 119.3427 35.03893 203.6464 -9.58876669 248.2741#SES
ses.opt <- ses(train.ts, h = 236, alpha = NULL)
plot(ses.opt)
ses.opt## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 119.4499 112.112059 126.7876 108.2276667 130.6720
## 948 119.4499 109.073165 129.8265 103.5800797 135.3196
## 949 119.4499 106.741270 132.1584 100.0137541 138.8859
## 950 119.4499 104.775368 134.1243 97.0071667 141.8925
## 951 119.4499 103.043363 135.8563 94.3582927 144.5414
## 952 119.4499 101.477503 137.4222 91.9635178 146.9362
## 953 119.4499 100.037543 138.8622 89.7612887 149.1384
## 954 119.4499 98.697258 140.2024 87.7114997 151.1882
## 955 119.4499 97.438433 141.4613 85.7862926 153.1134
## 956 119.4499 96.247805 142.6519 83.9653843 154.9343
## 957 119.4499 95.115362 143.7843 82.2334622 156.6662
## 958 119.4499 94.033326 144.8664 80.5786302 158.3211
## 959 119.4499 92.995510 145.9042 78.9914276 159.9083
## 960 119.4499 91.996899 146.9028 77.4641839 161.4355
## 961 119.4499 91.033359 147.8663 75.9905775 162.9091
## 962 119.4499 90.101437 148.7983 74.5653250 164.3344
## 963 119.4499 89.198209 149.7015 73.1839577 165.7157
## 964 119.4499 88.321178 150.5785 71.8426551 167.0570
## 965 119.4499 87.468190 151.4315 70.5381212 168.3616
## 966 119.4499 86.637367 152.2623 69.2674883 169.6322
## 967 119.4499 85.827069 153.0726 68.0282432 170.8715
## 968 119.4499 85.035844 153.8639 66.8181689 172.0815
## 969 119.4499 84.262405 154.6373 65.6352975 173.2644
## 970 119.4499 83.505606 155.3941 64.4778728 174.4218
## 971 119.4499 82.764416 156.1353 63.3443201 175.5554
## 972 119.4499 82.037907 156.8618 62.2332204 176.6665
## 973 119.4499 81.325240 157.5745 61.1432902 177.7564
## 974 119.4499 80.625652 158.2740 60.0733637 178.8263
## 975 119.4499 79.938450 158.9613 59.0223783 179.8773
## 976 119.4499 79.262997 159.6367 57.9893623 180.9103
## 977 119.4499 78.598711 160.3010 56.9734243 181.9263
## 978 119.4499 77.945055 160.9546 55.9737445 182.9260
## 979 119.4499 77.301536 161.5982 54.9895662 183.9101
## 980 119.4499 76.667695 162.2320 54.0201901 184.8795
## 981 119.4499 76.043109 162.8566 53.0649676 185.8347
## 982 119.4499 75.427383 163.4723 52.1232964 186.7764
## 983 119.4499 74.820151 164.0795 51.1946155 187.7051
## 984 119.4499 74.221071 164.6786 50.2784018 188.6213
## 985 119.4499 73.629823 165.2699 49.3741662 189.5255
## 986 119.4499 73.046108 165.8536 48.4814509 190.4182
## 987 119.4499 72.469645 166.4301 47.5998264 191.2999
## 988 119.4499 71.900170 166.9995 46.7288895 192.1708
## 989 119.4499 71.337435 167.5623 45.8682605 193.0314
## 990 119.4499 70.781206 168.1185 45.0175820 193.8821
## 991 119.4499 70.231263 168.6684 44.1765165 194.7232
## 992 119.4499 69.687397 169.2123 43.3447454 195.5550
## 993 119.4499 69.149411 169.7503 42.5219672 196.3777
## 994 119.4499 68.617119 170.2826 41.7078963 197.1918
## 995 119.4499 68.090343 170.8094 40.9022620 197.9974
## 996 119.4499 67.568915 171.3308 40.1048073 198.7949
## 997 119.4499 67.052676 171.8470 39.3152881 199.5844
## 998 119.4499 66.541474 172.3582 38.5334721 200.3662
## 999 119.4499 66.035164 172.8645 37.7591380 201.1406
## 1000 119.4499 65.533609 173.3661 36.9920751 201.9076
## 1001 119.4499 65.036676 173.8630 36.2320823 202.6676
## 1002 119.4499 64.544241 174.3555 35.4789677 203.4207
## 1003 119.4499 64.056184 174.8435 34.7325479 204.1672
## 1004 119.4499 63.572389 175.3273 33.9926473 204.9071
## 1005 119.4499 63.092747 175.8070 33.2590981 205.6406
## 1006 119.4499 62.617152 176.2825 32.5317396 206.3680
## 1007 119.4499 62.145505 176.7542 31.8104175 207.0893
## 1008 119.4499 61.677708 177.2220 31.0949840 207.8047
## 1009 119.4499 61.213669 177.6860 30.3852973 208.5144
## 1010 119.4499 60.753298 178.1464 29.6812209 209.2185
## 1011 119.4499 60.296510 178.6032 28.9826240 209.9171
## 1012 119.4499 59.843223 179.0565 28.2893805 210.6103
## 1013 119.4499 59.393357 179.5063 27.6013693 211.2983
## 1014 119.4499 58.946835 179.9529 26.9184736 211.9812
## 1015 119.4499 58.503585 180.3961 26.2405810 212.6591
## 1016 119.4499 58.063535 180.8362 25.5675831 213.3321
## 1017 119.4499 57.626618 181.2731 24.8993754 214.0003
## 1018 119.4499 57.192766 181.7069 24.2358570 214.6638
## 1019 119.4499 56.761918 182.1378 23.5769306 215.3228
## 1020 119.4499 56.334010 182.5657 22.9225021 215.9772
## 1021 119.4499 55.908984 182.9907 22.2724807 216.6272
## 1022 119.4499 55.486782 183.4129 21.6267785 217.2729
## 1023 119.4499 55.067348 183.8324 20.9853106 217.9144
## 1024 119.4499 54.650630 184.2491 20.3479946 218.5517
## 1025 119.4499 54.236574 184.6631 19.7147511 219.1849
## 1026 119.4499 53.825131 185.0746 19.0855029 219.8142
## 1027 119.4499 53.416251 185.4834 18.4601754 220.4395
## 1028 119.4499 53.009888 185.8898 17.8386961 221.0610
## 1029 119.4499 52.605995 186.2937 17.2209950 221.6787
## 1030 119.4499 52.204527 186.6952 16.6070038 222.2927
## 1031 119.4499 51.805443 187.0943 15.9966566 222.9030
## 1032 119.4499 51.408699 187.4910 15.3898892 223.5098
## 1033 119.4499 51.014255 187.8854 14.7866394 224.1131
## 1034 119.4499 50.622072 188.2776 14.1868467 224.7129
## 1035 119.4499 50.232110 188.6676 13.5904523 225.3092
## 1036 119.4499 49.844334 189.0554 12.9973992 225.9023
## 1037 119.4499 49.458706 189.4410 12.4076317 226.4921
## 1038 119.4499 49.075190 189.8245 11.8210959 227.0786
## 1039 119.4499 48.693754 190.2059 11.2377392 227.6620
## 1040 119.4499 48.314363 190.5853 10.6575105 228.2422
## 1041 119.4499 47.936984 190.9627 10.0803600 228.8193
## 1042 119.4499 47.561587 191.3381 9.5062392 229.3935
## 1043 119.4499 47.188140 191.7116 8.9351009 229.9646
## 1044 119.4499 46.816612 192.0831 8.3668991 230.5328
## 1045 119.4499 46.446976 192.4527 7.8015890 231.0981
## 1046 119.4499 46.079202 192.8205 7.2391268 231.6606
## 1047 119.4499 45.713262 193.1864 6.6794699 232.2202
## 1048 119.4499 45.349129 193.5506 6.1225769 232.7771
## 1049 119.4499 44.986777 193.9129 5.5684071 233.3313
## 1050 119.4499 44.626179 194.2735 5.0169209 233.8828
## 1051 119.4499 44.267312 194.6324 4.4680798 234.4316
## 1052 119.4499 43.910149 194.9896 3.9218461 234.9779
## 1053 119.4499 43.554666 195.3450 3.3781829 235.5215
## 1054 119.4499 43.200841 195.6989 2.8370544 236.0626
## 1055 119.4499 42.848651 196.0510 2.2984253 236.6013
## 1056 119.4499 42.498072 196.4016 1.7622613 237.1374
## 1057 119.4499 42.149083 196.7506 1.2285290 237.6712
## 1058 119.4499 41.801663 197.0980 0.6971955 238.2025
## 1059 119.4499 41.455790 197.4439 0.1682288 238.7315
## 1060 119.4499 41.111444 197.7883 -0.3584026 239.2581
## 1061 119.4499 40.768606 198.1311 -0.8827291 239.7824
## 1062 119.4499 40.427254 198.4724 -1.4047809 240.3045
## 1063 119.4499 40.087371 198.8123 -1.9245872 240.8243
## 1064 119.4499 39.748938 199.1508 -2.4421769 241.3419
## 1065 119.4499 39.411935 199.4878 -2.9575780 241.8573
## 1066 119.4499 39.076345 199.8234 -3.4708181 242.3705
## 1067 119.4499 38.742151 200.1575 -3.9819241 242.8816
## 1068 119.4499 38.409335 200.4904 -4.4909225 243.3906
## 1069 119.4499 38.077880 200.8218 -4.9978390 243.8975
## 1070 119.4499 37.747770 201.1519 -5.5026990 244.4024
## 1071 119.4499 37.418988 201.4807 -6.0055274 244.9052
## 1072 119.4499 37.091519 201.8082 -6.5063484 245.4060
## 1073 119.4499 36.765346 202.1344 -7.0051860 245.9049
## 1074 119.4499 36.440456 202.4592 -7.5020635 246.4018
## 1075 119.4499 36.116831 202.7829 -7.9970039 246.8967
## 1076 119.4499 35.794459 203.1052 -8.4900295 247.3897
## 1077 119.4499 35.473325 203.4264 -8.9811626 247.8809
## 1078 119.4499 35.153413 203.7463 -9.4704246 248.3701
## 1079 119.4499 34.834712 204.0650 -9.9578368 248.8575
## 1080 119.4499 34.517206 204.3825 -10.4434201 249.3431
## 1081 119.4499 34.200883 204.6988 -10.9271949 249.8269
## 1082 119.4499 33.885729 205.0140 -11.4091812 250.3089
## 1083 119.4499 33.571731 205.3280 -11.8893987 250.7891
## 1084 119.4499 33.258878 205.6408 -12.3678668 251.2676
## 1085 119.4499 32.947156 205.9525 -12.8446045 251.7443
## 1086 119.4499 32.636553 206.2631 -13.3196303 252.2193
## 1087 119.4499 32.327058 206.5726 -13.7929626 252.6927
## 1088 119.4499 32.018658 206.8810 -14.2646194 253.1643
## 1089 119.4499 31.711342 207.1884 -14.7346183 253.6343
## 1090 119.4499 31.405099 207.4946 -15.2029767 254.1027
## 1091 119.4499 31.099917 207.7998 -15.6697117 254.5694
## 1092 119.4499 30.795786 208.1039 -16.1348400 255.0345
## 1093 119.4499 30.492695 208.4070 -16.5983782 255.4981
## 1094 119.4499 30.190633 208.7091 -17.0603423 255.9600
## 1095 119.4499 29.889590 209.0101 -17.5207483 256.4204
## 1096 119.4499 29.589555 209.3101 -17.9796120 256.8793
## 1097 119.4499 29.290518 209.6092 -18.4369486 257.3366
## 1098 119.4499 28.992471 209.9072 -18.8927734 257.7925
## 1099 119.4499 28.695402 210.2043 -19.3471012 258.2468
## 1100 119.4499 28.399302 210.5004 -19.7999467 258.6996
## 1101 119.4499 28.104162 210.7955 -20.2513242 259.1510
## 1102 119.4499 27.809973 211.0897 -20.7012481 259.6009
## 1103 119.4499 27.516725 211.3830 -21.1497322 260.0494
## 1104 119.4499 27.224409 211.6753 -21.5967902 260.4965
## 1105 119.4499 26.933017 211.9667 -22.0424358 260.9421
## 1106 119.4499 26.642540 212.2572 -22.4866821 261.3864
## 1107 119.4499 26.352969 212.5467 -22.9295423 261.8292
## 1108 119.4499 26.064297 212.8354 -23.3710293 262.2707
## 1109 119.4499 25.776513 213.1232 -23.8111558 262.7109
## 1110 119.4499 25.489611 213.4101 -24.2499342 263.1496
## 1111 119.4499 25.203583 213.6961 -24.6873770 263.5871
## 1112 119.4499 24.918420 213.9813 -25.1234961 264.0232
## 1113 119.4499 24.634115 214.2656 -25.5583037 264.4580
## 1114 119.4499 24.350659 214.5490 -25.9918113 264.8915
## 1115 119.4499 24.068046 214.8317 -26.4240306 265.3237
## 1116 119.4499 23.786268 215.1134 -26.8549731 265.7547
## 1117 119.4499 23.505318 215.3944 -27.2846500 266.1844
## 1118 119.4499 23.225187 215.6745 -27.7130723 266.6128
## 1119 119.4499 22.945870 215.9538 -28.1402510 267.0400
## 1120 119.4499 22.667359 216.2323 -28.5661968 267.4659
## 1121 119.4499 22.389647 216.5101 -28.9909204 267.8906
## 1122 119.4499 22.112728 216.7870 -29.4144323 268.3141
## 1123 119.4499 21.836594 217.0631 -29.8367427 268.7364
## 1124 119.4499 21.561239 217.3385 -30.2578618 269.1576
## 1125 119.4499 21.286656 217.6130 -30.6777996 269.5775
## 1126 119.4499 21.012840 217.8869 -31.0965661 269.9963
## 1127 119.4499 20.739782 218.1599 -31.5141709 270.4139
## 1128 119.4499 20.467479 218.4322 -31.9306237 270.8303
## 1129 119.4499 20.195922 218.7038 -32.3459339 271.2456
## 1130 119.4499 19.925106 218.9746 -32.7601110 271.6598
## 1131 119.4499 19.655025 219.2447 -33.1731642 272.0729
## 1132 119.4499 19.385673 219.5140 -33.5851024 272.4848
## 1133 119.4499 19.117044 219.7827 -33.9959348 272.8956
## 1134 119.4499 18.849133 220.0506 -34.4056702 273.3054
## 1135 119.4499 18.581933 220.3178 -34.8143173 273.7140
## 1136 119.4499 18.315439 220.5843 -35.2218847 274.1216
## 1137 119.4499 18.049645 220.8501 -35.6283810 274.5281
## 1138 119.4499 17.784546 221.1152 -36.0338145 274.9335
## 1139 119.4499 17.520137 221.3796 -36.4381936 275.3379
## 1140 119.4499 17.256412 221.6433 -36.8415265 275.7412
## 1141 119.4499 16.993366 221.9063 -37.2438211 276.1435
## 1142 119.4499 16.730993 222.1687 -37.6450856 276.5448
## 1143 119.4499 16.469289 222.4304 -38.0453277 276.9450
## 1144 119.4499 16.208248 222.6915 -38.4445552 277.3443
## 1145 119.4499 15.947865 222.9518 -38.8427759 277.7425
## 1146 119.4499 15.688136 223.2116 -39.2399973 278.1397
## 1147 119.4499 15.429056 223.4706 -39.6362268 278.5359
## 1148 119.4499 15.170619 223.7291 -40.0314720 278.9312
## 1149 119.4499 14.912821 223.9869 -40.4257400 279.3254
## 1150 119.4499 14.655657 224.2440 -40.8190381 279.7187
## 1151 119.4499 14.399123 224.5006 -41.2113734 280.1111
## 1152 119.4499 14.143213 224.7565 -41.6027529 280.5025
## 1153 119.4499 13.887924 225.0118 -41.9931837 280.8929
## 1154 119.4499 13.633251 225.2664 -42.3826725 281.2824
## 1155 119.4499 13.379190 225.5205 -42.7712261 281.6709
## 1156 119.4499 13.125735 225.7740 -43.1588514 282.0586
## 1157 119.4499 12.872883 226.0268 -43.5455547 282.4453
## 1158 119.4499 12.620630 226.2791 -43.9313429 282.8310
## 1159 119.4499 12.368971 226.5307 -44.3162222 283.2159
## 1160 119.4499 12.117902 226.7818 -44.7001991 283.5999
## 1161 119.4499 11.867419 227.0323 -45.0832798 283.9830
## 1162 119.4499 11.617518 227.2822 -45.4654708 284.3652
## 1163 119.4499 11.368194 227.5315 -45.8467780 284.7465
## 1164 119.4499 11.119445 227.7803 -46.2272077 285.1269
## 1165 119.4499 10.871265 228.0284 -46.6067658 285.5065
## 1166 119.4499 10.623651 228.2760 -46.9854584 285.8852
## 1167 119.4499 10.376600 228.5231 -47.3632912 286.2630
## 1168 119.4499 10.130106 228.7696 -47.7402702 286.6400
## 1169 119.4499 9.884168 229.0155 -48.1164011 287.0161
## 1170 119.4499 9.638780 229.2609 -48.4916896 287.3914
## 1171 119.4499 9.393939 229.5058 -48.8661413 287.7658
## 1172 119.4499 9.149641 229.7501 -49.2397619 288.1395
## 1173 119.4499 8.905884 229.9938 -49.6125567 288.5123
## 1174 119.4499 8.662663 230.2370 -49.9845313 288.8842
## 1175 119.4499 8.419975 230.4797 -50.3556911 289.2554
## 1176 119.4499 8.177816 230.7219 -50.7260414 289.6257
## 1177 119.4499 7.936182 230.9635 -51.0955874 289.9953
## 1178 119.4499 7.695072 231.2046 -51.4643344 290.3640
## 1179 119.4499 7.454480 231.4452 -51.8322875 290.7320
## 1180 119.4499 7.214404 231.6853 -52.1994519 291.0992
## 1181 119.4499 6.974841 231.9249 -52.5658326 291.4655
## 1182 119.4499 6.735786 232.1639 -52.9314346 291.8311#Lamda Optimum Holt Winter
sesopt<- HoltWinters(train.ts, gamma = FALSE, beta = FALSE,alpha = NULL)
sesopt## Holt-Winters exponential smoothing without trend and without seasonal component.
##
## Call:
## HoltWinters(x = train.ts, alpha = NULL, beta = FALSE, gamma = FALSE)
##
## Smoothing parameters:
## alpha: 0.9999474
## beta : FALSE
## gamma: FALSE
##
## Coefficients:
## [,1]
## a 119.4499plot(sesopt)
#ramalan
ramalanopt<- forecast(sesopt, h=236)
ramalanopt## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 119.4499 112.112160 126.7877 108.2277840 130.6721
## 948 119.4499 109.073033 129.8268 103.5798401 135.3200
## 949 119.4499 106.740992 132.1589 100.0132912 138.8866
## 950 119.4499 104.774978 134.1249 97.0065325 141.8933
## 951 119.4499 103.042879 135.8570 94.3575158 144.5423
## 952 119.4499 101.476939 137.4229 91.9626165 146.9372
## 953 119.4499 100.036906 138.8629 89.7602760 149.1396
## 954 119.4499 98.696554 140.2033 87.7103853 151.1895
## 955 119.4499 97.437667 141.4622 85.7850842 153.1148
## 956 119.4499 96.246982 142.6529 83.9640879 154.9358
## 957 119.4499 95.114485 143.7854 82.2320831 156.6678
## 958 119.4499 94.032397 144.8674 80.5771726 158.3227
## 959 119.4499 92.994532 145.9053 78.9898953 159.9099
## 960 119.4499 91.995875 146.9040 77.4625802 161.4373
## 961 119.4499 91.032290 147.8676 75.9889052 162.9109
## 962 119.4499 90.100325 148.7995 74.5635867 164.3363
## 963 119.4499 89.197055 149.7028 73.1821556 165.7177
## 964 119.4499 88.319984 150.5799 71.8407913 167.0591
## 965 119.4499 87.466956 151.4329 70.5361976 168.3636
## 966 119.4499 86.636096 152.2637 69.2655066 169.6343
## 967 119.4499 85.825761 153.0741 68.0262051 170.8736
## 968 119.4499 85.034499 153.8653 66.8160757 172.0838
## 969 119.4499 84.261026 154.6388 65.6331506 173.2667
## 970 119.4499 83.504193 155.3956 64.4756735 174.4242
## 971 119.4499 82.762969 156.1369 63.3420695 175.5578
## 972 119.4499 82.036427 156.8634 62.2309197 176.6689
## 973 119.4499 81.323728 157.5761 61.1409404 177.7589
## 974 119.4499 80.624109 158.2757 60.0709657 178.8289
## 975 119.4499 79.936876 158.9630 59.0199331 179.8799
## 976 119.4499 79.261393 159.6384 57.9868707 180.9130
## 977 119.4499 78.597077 160.3028 56.9708872 181.9290
## 978 119.4499 77.943392 160.9565 55.9711626 182.9287
## 979 119.4499 77.299844 161.6000 54.9869403 183.9129
## 980 119.4499 76.665974 162.2339 54.0175208 184.8823
## 981 119.4499 76.041360 162.8585 53.0622557 185.8376
## 982 119.4499 75.425607 163.4742 52.1205425 186.7793
## 983 119.4499 74.818348 164.0815 51.1918202 187.7080
## 984 119.4499 74.219241 164.6806 50.2755657 188.6243
## 985 119.4499 73.627967 165.2719 49.3712899 189.5286
## 986 119.4499 73.044226 165.8556 48.4785348 190.4213
## 987 119.4499 72.467737 166.4321 47.5968712 191.3030
## 988 119.4499 71.898237 167.0016 46.7258956 192.1739
## 989 119.4499 71.335477 167.5644 45.8652284 193.0346
## 990 119.4499 70.779223 168.1206 45.0145121 193.8853
## 991 119.4499 70.229256 168.6706 44.1734094 194.7264
## 992 119.4499 69.685366 169.2145 43.3416014 195.5582
## 993 119.4499 69.147356 169.7525 42.5187867 196.3811
## 994 119.4499 68.615040 170.2848 41.7046798 197.1952
## 995 119.4499 68.088241 170.8116 40.8990098 198.0008
## 996 119.4499 67.566790 171.3331 40.1015199 198.7983
## 997 119.4499 67.050529 171.8493 39.3119658 199.5879
## 998 119.4499 66.539304 172.3605 38.5301152 200.3697
## 999 119.4499 66.032972 172.8669 37.7557469 201.1441
## 1000 119.4499 65.531394 173.3684 36.9886501 201.9112
## 1001 119.4499 65.034440 173.8654 36.2286238 202.6712
## 1002 119.4499 64.541983 174.3579 35.4754760 203.4244
## 1003 119.4499 64.053904 174.8459 34.7290232 204.1708
## 1004 119.4499 63.570087 175.3298 33.9890900 204.9108
## 1005 119.4499 63.090424 175.8094 33.2555085 205.6443
## 1006 119.4499 62.614809 176.2850 32.5281179 206.3717
## 1007 119.4499 62.143141 176.7567 31.8067640 207.0931
## 1008 119.4499 61.675324 177.2245 31.0912990 207.8085
## 1009 119.4499 61.211264 177.6886 30.3815810 208.5183
## 1010 119.4499 60.750873 178.1490 29.6774737 209.2224
## 1011 119.4499 60.294065 178.6058 28.9788460 209.9210
## 1012 119.4499 59.840757 179.0591 28.2855721 210.6143
## 1013 119.4499 59.390871 179.5090 27.5975306 211.3023
## 1014 119.4499 58.944330 179.9555 26.9146048 211.9852
## 1015 119.4499 58.501060 180.3988 26.2366824 212.6632
## 1016 119.4499 58.060991 180.8389 25.5636549 213.3362
## 1017 119.4499 57.624055 181.2758 24.8954178 214.0044
## 1018 119.4499 57.190184 181.7097 24.2318703 214.6680
## 1019 119.4499 56.759316 182.1405 23.5729149 215.3269
## 1020 119.4499 56.331390 182.5685 22.9184577 215.9814
## 1021 119.4499 55.906345 182.9935 22.2684078 216.6314
## 1022 119.4499 55.484125 183.4157 21.6226772 217.2772
## 1023 119.4499 55.064673 183.8352 20.9811811 217.9187
## 1024 119.4499 54.647936 184.2519 20.3438372 218.5560
## 1025 119.4499 54.233862 184.6660 19.7105659 219.1893
## 1026 119.4499 53.822401 185.0774 19.0812901 219.8186
## 1027 119.4499 53.413503 185.4863 18.4559352 220.4439
## 1028 119.4499 53.007122 185.8927 17.8344287 221.0654
## 1029 119.4499 52.603211 186.2966 17.2167004 221.6831
## 1030 119.4499 52.201726 186.6981 16.6026823 222.2972
## 1031 119.4499 51.802624 187.0972 15.9923084 222.9075
## 1032 119.4499 51.405863 187.4940 15.3855144 223.5143
## 1033 119.4499 51.011402 187.8884 14.7822381 224.1176
## 1034 119.4499 50.619201 188.2806 14.1824192 224.7174
## 1035 119.4499 50.229223 188.6706 13.5859987 225.3138
## 1036 119.4499 49.841429 189.0584 12.9929195 225.9069
## 1037 119.4499 49.455784 189.4441 12.4031262 226.4967
## 1038 119.4499 49.072252 189.8276 11.8165647 227.0833
## 1039 119.4499 48.690799 190.2090 11.2331825 227.6667
## 1040 119.4499 48.311391 190.5885 10.6529284 228.2469
## 1041 119.4499 47.933996 190.9658 10.0757526 228.8241
## 1042 119.4499 47.558582 191.3413 9.5016067 229.3982
## 1043 119.4499 47.185119 191.7147 8.9304434 229.9694
## 1044 119.4499 46.813575 192.0863 8.3622167 230.5376
## 1045 119.4499 46.443923 192.4559 7.7968818 231.1030
## 1046 119.4499 46.076132 192.8237 7.2343950 231.6654
## 1047 119.4499 45.710177 193.1897 6.6747137 232.2251
## 1048 119.4499 45.346028 193.5538 6.1177963 232.7820
## 1049 119.4499 44.983660 193.9162 5.5636022 233.3362
## 1050 119.4499 44.623047 194.2768 5.0120920 233.8878
## 1051 119.4499 44.264163 194.6357 4.4632269 234.4366
## 1052 119.4499 43.906984 194.9929 3.9169693 234.9829
## 1053 119.4499 43.551487 195.3484 3.3732824 235.5266
## 1054 119.4499 43.197646 195.7022 2.8321301 236.0677
## 1055 119.4499 42.845440 196.0544 2.2934775 236.6064
## 1056 119.4499 42.494846 196.4050 1.7572901 237.1426
## 1057 119.4499 42.145842 196.7540 1.2235344 237.6763
## 1058 119.4499 41.798406 197.1014 0.6921777 238.2077
## 1059 119.4499 41.452519 197.4473 0.1631879 238.7367
## 1060 119.4499 41.108158 197.7917 -0.3634664 239.2633
## 1061 119.4499 40.765304 198.1345 -0.8878159 239.7877
## 1062 119.4499 40.423938 198.4759 -1.4098905 240.3097
## 1063 119.4499 40.084040 198.8158 -1.9297196 240.8296
## 1064 119.4499 39.745592 199.1543 -2.4473319 241.3472
## 1065 119.4499 39.408574 199.4913 -2.9627555 241.8626
## 1066 119.4499 39.072970 199.8269 -3.4760180 242.3759
## 1067 119.4499 38.738761 200.1611 -3.9871463 242.8870
## 1068 119.4499 38.405930 200.4939 -4.4961669 243.3960
## 1069 119.4499 38.074461 200.8254 -5.0031055 243.9029
## 1070 119.4499 37.744336 201.1555 -5.5079876 244.4078
## 1071 119.4499 37.415540 201.4843 -6.0108379 244.9107
## 1072 119.4499 37.088057 201.8118 -6.5116808 245.4115
## 1073 119.4499 36.761870 202.1380 -7.0105402 245.9104
## 1074 119.4499 36.436965 202.4629 -7.5074394 246.4073
## 1075 119.4499 36.113327 202.7865 -8.0024013 246.9022
## 1076 119.4499 35.790941 203.1089 -8.4954485 247.3953
## 1077 119.4499 35.469792 203.4301 -8.9866030 247.8864
## 1078 119.4499 35.149867 203.7500 -9.4758863 248.3757
## 1079 119.4499 34.831151 204.0687 -9.9633199 248.8632
## 1080 119.4499 34.513631 204.3862 -10.4489243 249.3488
## 1081 119.4499 34.197294 204.7025 -10.9327202 249.8326
## 1082 119.4499 33.882127 205.0177 -11.4147275 250.3146
## 1083 119.4499 33.568116 205.3317 -11.8949660 250.7948
## 1084 119.4499 33.255248 205.6446 -12.3734550 251.2733
## 1085 119.4499 32.943513 205.9563 -12.8502134 251.7501
## 1086 119.4499 32.632897 206.2669 -13.3252600 252.2251
## 1087 119.4499 32.323388 206.5765 -13.7986129 252.6985
## 1088 119.4499 32.014975 206.8849 -14.2702903 253.1701
## 1089 119.4499 31.707645 207.1922 -14.7403097 253.6402
## 1090 119.4499 31.401389 207.4985 -15.2086885 254.1085
## 1091 119.4499 31.096194 207.8036 -15.6754439 254.5753
## 1092 119.4499 30.792050 208.1078 -16.1405925 255.0404
## 1093 119.4499 30.488945 208.4109 -16.6041508 255.5040
## 1094 119.4499 30.186870 208.7130 -17.0661351 255.9660
## 1095 119.4499 29.885813 209.0140 -17.5265612 256.4264
## 1096 119.4499 29.585766 209.3141 -17.9854448 256.8853
## 1097 119.4499 29.286716 209.6131 -18.4428014 257.3426
## 1098 119.4499 28.988655 209.9112 -18.8986460 257.7985
## 1099 119.4499 28.691573 210.2083 -19.3529936 258.2528
## 1100 119.4499 28.395461 210.5044 -19.8058589 258.7057
## 1101 119.4499 28.100308 210.7995 -20.2572561 259.1571
## 1102 119.4499 27.806106 211.0937 -20.7071996 259.6070
## 1103 119.4499 27.512845 211.3870 -21.1557032 260.0555
## 1104 119.4499 27.220517 211.6793 -21.6027807 260.5026
## 1105 119.4499 26.929112 211.9707 -22.0484457 260.9483
## 1106 119.4499 26.638622 212.2612 -22.4927114 261.3926
## 1107 119.4499 26.349039 212.5508 -22.9355909 261.8354
## 1108 119.4499 26.060354 212.8395 -23.3770971 262.2769
## 1109 119.4499 25.772558 213.1273 -23.8172428 262.7171
## 1110 119.4499 25.485644 213.4142 -24.2560403 263.1559
## 1111 119.4499 25.199603 213.7002 -24.6935021 263.5933
## 1112 119.4499 24.914427 213.9854 -25.1296403 264.0295
## 1113 119.4499 24.630109 214.2697 -25.5644668 264.4643
## 1114 119.4499 24.346642 214.5532 -25.9979933 264.8978
## 1115 119.4499 24.064016 214.8358 -26.4302314 265.3301
## 1116 119.4499 23.782226 215.1176 -26.8611927 265.7610
## 1117 119.4499 23.501263 215.3986 -27.2908882 266.1907
## 1118 119.4499 23.221121 215.6787 -27.7193292 266.6192
## 1119 119.4499 22.941791 215.9581 -28.1465265 267.0464
## 1120 119.4499 22.663268 216.2366 -28.5724909 267.4723
## 1121 119.4499 22.385544 216.5143 -28.9972330 267.8971
## 1122 119.4499 22.108613 216.7912 -29.4207633 268.3206
## 1123 119.4499 21.832467 217.0674 -29.8430921 268.7429
## 1124 119.4499 21.557100 217.3427 -30.2642295 269.1641
## 1125 119.4499 21.282505 217.6173 -30.6841857 269.5840
## 1126 119.4499 21.008677 217.8912 -31.1029703 270.0028
## 1127 119.4499 20.735608 218.1642 -31.5205933 270.4204
## 1128 119.4499 20.463292 218.4366 -31.9370643 270.8369
## 1129 119.4499 20.191723 218.7081 -32.3523926 271.2522
## 1130 119.4499 19.920896 218.9789 -32.7665877 271.6664
## 1131 119.4499 19.650803 219.2490 -33.1796588 272.0795
## 1132 119.4499 19.381439 219.5184 -33.5916150 272.4915
## 1133 119.4499 19.112799 219.7870 -34.0024653 272.9023
## 1134 119.4499 18.844876 220.0550 -34.4122185 273.3121
## 1135 119.4499 18.577664 220.3222 -34.8208834 273.7207
## 1136 119.4499 18.311158 220.5887 -35.2284686 274.1283
## 1137 119.4499 18.045353 220.8545 -35.6349825 274.5348
## 1138 119.4499 17.780243 221.1196 -36.0404337 274.9403
## 1139 119.4499 17.515822 221.3840 -36.4448304 275.3447
## 1140 119.4499 17.252085 221.6478 -36.8481808 275.7480
## 1141 119.4499 16.989028 221.9108 -37.2504930 276.1503
## 1142 119.4499 16.726643 222.1732 -37.6517749 276.5516
## 1143 119.4499 16.464928 222.4349 -38.0520344 276.9519
## 1144 119.4499 16.203876 222.6960 -38.4512794 277.3511
## 1145 119.4499 15.943482 222.9564 -38.8495174 277.7494
## 1146 119.4499 15.683741 223.2161 -39.2467560 278.1466
## 1147 119.4499 15.424650 223.4752 -39.6430028 278.5428
## 1148 119.4499 15.166201 223.7336 -40.0382651 278.9381
## 1149 119.4499 14.908392 223.9914 -40.4325503 279.3324
## 1150 119.4499 14.651217 224.2486 -40.8258655 279.7257
## 1151 119.4499 14.394672 224.5052 -41.2182179 280.1181
## 1152 119.4499 14.138751 224.7611 -41.6096145 280.5095
## 1153 119.4499 13.883451 225.0164 -42.0000622 280.8999
## 1154 119.4499 13.628767 225.2711 -42.3895679 281.2894
## 1155 119.4499 13.374695 225.5251 -42.7781385 281.6780
## 1156 119.4499 13.121229 225.7786 -43.1657806 282.0656
## 1157 119.4499 12.868366 226.0315 -43.5525008 282.4523
## 1158 119.4499 12.616102 226.2837 -43.9383057 282.8381
## 1159 119.4499 12.364432 226.5354 -44.3232017 283.2230
## 1160 119.4499 12.113352 226.7865 -44.7071953 283.6070
## 1161 119.4499 11.862858 227.0370 -45.0902928 283.9901
## 1162 119.4499 11.612946 227.2869 -45.4725003 284.3723
## 1163 119.4499 11.363612 227.5362 -45.8538242 284.7537
## 1164 119.4499 11.114851 227.7850 -46.2342704 285.1341
## 1165 119.4499 10.866661 228.0332 -46.6138450 285.5137
## 1166 119.4499 10.619036 228.2808 -46.9925541 285.8924
## 1167 119.4499 10.371974 228.5279 -47.3704033 286.2702
## 1168 119.4499 10.125470 228.7744 -47.7473987 286.6472
## 1169 119.4499 9.879520 229.0203 -48.1235460 287.0234
## 1170 119.4499 9.634122 229.2657 -48.4988508 287.3987
## 1171 119.4499 9.389270 229.5106 -48.8733188 287.7732
## 1172 119.4499 9.144962 229.7549 -49.2469556 288.1468
## 1173 119.4499 8.901194 229.9986 -49.6197666 288.5196
## 1174 119.4499 8.657963 230.2419 -49.9917574 288.8916
## 1175 119.4499 8.415264 230.4846 -50.3629333 289.2628
## 1176 119.4499 8.173094 230.7267 -50.7332997 289.6331
## 1177 119.4499 7.931451 230.9684 -51.1028618 290.0027
## 1178 119.4499 7.690329 231.2095 -51.4716248 290.3715
## 1179 119.4499 7.449727 231.4501 -51.8395940 290.7394
## 1180 119.4499 7.209641 231.6902 -52.2067743 291.1066
## 1181 119.4499 6.970067 231.9298 -52.5731709 291.4730
## 1182 119.4499 6.731002 232.1688 -52.9387888 291.8386Akurasi Data Latih
#Keakuratan Metode
#Pada data training
SSE1<-ses1$SSE
MSE1<-ses1$SSE/length(train.ts)
RMSE1<-sqrt(MSE1)
akurasi1 <- matrix(c(SSE1,MSE1,RMSE1))
row.names(akurasi1)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "RMSE")
colnames(akurasi1) <- c("Akurasi lamda=0.2")
akurasi1## Akurasi lamda=0.2
## SSE 81298.113813
## MSE 85.938810
## RMSE 9.270319SSE2<-ses2$SSE
MSE2<-ses2$SSE/length(train.ts)
RMSE2<-sqrt(MSE2)
akurasi2 <- matrix(c(SSE2,MSE2,RMSE2))
row.names(akurasi2)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "RMSE")
colnames(akurasi2) <- c("Akurasi lamda=0.7")
akurasi2## Akurasi lamda=0.7
## SSE 35170.204802
## MSE 37.177806
## RMSE 6.097361Cara manual
fitted1<-ramalan1$fitted
sisaan1<-ramalan1$residuals
head(sisaan1)## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 6
## Frequency = 1
## [1] NA -1.60000 -2.63000 1.39600 -0.68320 -4.64656resid1<-training$Price-ramalan1$fitted
head(resid1)## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 6
## Frequency = 1
## [1] NA -1.60000 -2.63000 1.39600 -0.68320 -4.64656#Cara Manual
SSE.1=sum(sisaan1[2:length(train.ts)]^2)
SSE.1## [1] 81298.11MSE.1 = SSE.1/length(train.ts)
MSE.1## [1] 85.93881MAPE.1 = sum(abs(sisaan1[2:length(train.ts)]/train.ts[2:length(train.ts)])*
2360)/length(train.ts)
MAPE.1## [1] 124.6056akurasi.1 <- matrix(c(SSE.1,MSE.1,MAPE.1))
row.names(akurasi.1)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasi.1) <- c("Akurasi lamda=0.2")
akurasi.1## Akurasi lamda=0.2
## SSE 81298.11381
## MSE 85.93881
## MAPE 124.60564fitted2<-ramalan2$fitted
sisaan2<-ramalan2$residuals
head(sisaan2)## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 6
## Frequency = 1
## [1] NA -1.60000 -1.83000 2.95100 -0.91470 -4.37441resid2<-training$Price-ramalan2$fitted
head(resid2)## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 6
## Frequency = 1
## [1] NA -1.60000 -1.83000 2.95100 -0.91470 -4.37441SSE.2=sum(sisaan2[2:length(train.ts)]^2)
SSE.2## [1] 35170.2MSE.2 = SSE.2/length(train.ts)
MSE.2## [1] 37.17781MAPE.2 = sum(abs(sisaan2[2:length(train.ts)]/train.ts[2:length(train.ts)])*
2360)/length(train.ts)
MAPE.2## [1] 84.18054akurasi.2 <- matrix(c(SSE.2,MSE.2,MAPE.2))
row.names(akurasi.2)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasi.2) <- c("Akurasi lamda=0.7")
akurasi.2## Akurasi lamda=0.7
## SSE 35170.20480
## MSE 37.17781
## MAPE 84.18054Model ini memiliki MAPE tidak kurang dari 10%. Nilai ini terbilang cukup tinggi dan tergolong model yang kurang baik
# Cek akurasi
accuracy(ramalanopt,testing$Price)## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
## Training set 0.005608677 5.722658 4.15511 -0.08765963 3.392656 1.000005
## Test set 19.609273821 52.496076 35.29690 5.24623851 20.984423 8.494858
## ACF1
## Training set 0.07507203
## Test set NAModel ini memiliki MAPE tidak kurang dari 10%. Nilai ini terbilang cukup tinggi dan tergolong model yang kurang baik
DES
#Lamda=0.2 dan gamma=0.2
des.1<- HoltWinters(train.ts, gamma = FALSE, beta = 0.2, alpha = 0.2)
plot(des.1)
#ramalan
ramalandes1<- forecast(des.1, h=10)
ramalandes1## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 119.4375 108.06687 130.8081 102.04763 136.8274
## 948 119.0825 107.38896 130.7760 101.19879 136.9661
## 949 118.7275 106.60827 130.8466 100.19276 137.2621
## 950 118.3724 105.71882 131.0260 99.02040 137.7245
## 951 118.0174 104.71816 131.3167 97.67796 138.3569
## 952 117.6624 103.60691 131.7179 96.16638 139.1584
## 953 117.3074 102.38801 132.2267 94.49018 140.1246
## 954 116.9524 101.06601 132.8387 92.65628 141.2484
## 955 116.5973 99.64634 133.5483 90.67302 142.5216
## 956 116.2423 98.13480 134.3498 88.54926 143.9354#Lamda=0.6 dan gamma=0.3
des.2<- HoltWinters(train.ts, gamma = FALSE, beta = 0.3, alpha = 0.6)
plot(des.2)
#ramalan
ramalandes2<- forecast(des.2, h=10)
ramalandes2## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 118.1718 109.44451 126.8990 104.82457 131.5190
## 948 117.3709 106.30271 128.4390 100.44358 134.2982
## 949 116.5700 102.68838 130.4515 95.33992 137.8000
## 950 115.7690 98.69033 132.8477 89.64941 141.8887
## 951 114.9681 94.36734 135.5689 83.46194 146.4743
## 952 114.1672 89.75894 138.5755 76.83797 151.4965
## 953 113.3663 84.89294 141.8397 69.82004 156.9126
## 954 112.5654 79.78989 145.3409 62.43958 162.6912
## 955 111.7645 74.46565 149.0633 54.72084 168.8081
## 956 110.9636 68.93292 152.9942 46.68324 175.2439Selanjutnya jika ingin membandingkan plot data latih dan data uji adalah sebagai berikut.
#Visually evaluate the prediction
plot(data.ts)
lines(des.1$fitted[,1], lty=2, col="blue")
lines(ramalandes1$mean, col="red")
#Lamda dan gamma optimum
des.opt<- HoltWinters(train.ts, gamma = FALSE)
des.opt## Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with trend and without seasonal component.
##
## Call:
## HoltWinters(x = train.ts, gamma = FALSE)
##
## Smoothing parameters:
## alpha: 1
## beta : 0.009275112
## gamma: FALSE
##
## Coefficients:
## [,1]
## a 119.4500000
## b -0.1890011plot(des.opt)
#ramalan
ramalandesopt<- forecast(des.opt, h=10)
ramalandesopt## Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
## 947 119.261 111.89111 126.6309 107.98973 130.5323
## 948 119.072 108.60096 129.5430 103.05792 135.0861
## 949 118.883 105.99922 131.7668 99.17896 138.5870
## 950 118.694 103.74837 133.6396 95.83664 141.5514
## 951 118.505 101.71834 135.2917 92.83202 144.1780
## 952 118.316 99.84272 136.7893 90.06356 146.5684
## 953 118.127 98.08228 138.1717 87.47125 148.7827
## 954 117.938 96.41155 139.4644 85.01614 150.8598
## 955 117.749 94.81294 140.6850 82.67133 152.8267
## 956 117.560 93.27369 141.8463 80.41731 154.7027Selanjutnya akan dilakukan perhitungan akurasi pada data latih maupun data uji dengan ukuran akurasi SSE, MSE dan MAPE.
#Akurasi Data Training
ssedes.train1<-des.1$SSE
msedes.train1<-ssedes.train1/length(train.ts)
sisaandes1<-ramalandes1$residuals
head(sisaandes1)## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 6
## Frequency = 1
## [1] NA NA 0.250000 5.290000 3.810400 0.174304mapedes.train1 <- sum(abs(sisaandes1[3:length(train.ts)]/train.ts[3:length(train.ts)])
*100)/length(train.ts)
akurasides.1 <- matrix(c(ssedes.train1,msedes.train1,mapedes.train1))
row.names(akurasides.1)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasides.1) <- c("Akurasi lamda=0.2 dan gamma=0.2")
akurasides.1## Akurasi lamda=0.2 dan gamma=0.2
## SSE 74235.863517
## MSE 78.473429
## MAPE 5.050379ssedes.train2<-des.2$SSE
msedes.train2<-ssedes.train2/length(train.ts)
sisaandes2<-ramalandes2$residuals
head(sisaandes2)## Time Series:
## Start = 1
## End = 6
## Frequency = 1
## [1] NA NA 0.250000 5.155000 0.889100 -3.277298mapedes.train2 <- sum(abs(sisaandes2[3:length(train.ts)]/train.ts[3:length(train.ts)])
*100)/length(train.ts)
akurasides.2 <- matrix(c(ssedes.train2,msedes.train2,mapedes.train2))
row.names(akurasides.2)<- c("SSE", "MSE", "MAPE")
colnames(akurasides.2) <- c("Akurasi lamda=0.6 dan gamma=0.3")
akurasides.2## Akurasi lamda=0.6 dan gamma=0.3
## SSE 43731.696111
## MSE 46.228009
## MAPE 3.927454Model ini memiliki MAPE kurang dari 10% sehinggga tergolong cukup baik.